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Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:05 am

@AllAboutLove wrote:
@Bobette wrote:Little Jimmy T FTW IMO.  
@Bobette your fave may be F1. How good is that!

SHHHH... Don't say it out loud.  My favourite never wins - I'll jinx him!!!  
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:10 am

@Bobette wrote:
@AllAboutLove wrote:snipped

As for Luke, unless he is eliminated or self-eliminates and thus justifying why he was active on SM in July then something may be awry (someone posting for him and with "live" IG stories that are older and uploaded? I know it can be done on IG so who knows. Seems a bit farfetched but will keep it in mind just in case). IA though that public may be backing Luke based on poll position but wouldn't Sportsbet increase their max bet losses for Luke to make more money if they know for sure he is not F1? It definitely is odd because based on sleuthing, I had posted that Luke may have had Ep3 SD which is the pattern for F1. Only way I see him not being so is if he is eliminated/eliminates himself.

@AllAboutLove, re: Luke leaving of his own accord, that may count as a "scratching" like it would with a horse race but I'm not sure. If the bets just get cancelled and refunded, it would not be in their best interests to allow too much money down on Luke, because they'd have to refund it later.  Far better IMO for them to encourage betting on others who they think/know won't win - then they get to keep it.

Have been looking through the rules on their website.  This seems like it suggests bets would indeed be refunded but I'm not sure - still looking for something more definitive.

253.3 Elimination/Eviction markets apply only to official eliminations/evictions. Any contestant leaving of their own accord or removed by producers will not be treated as the next eliminated/evictee for betting purposes. Sportsbet reserves the right to void all bets placed on an elimination/eviction market should the initial line up for elimination/eviction be changed.

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@Bobette good point! I just can't get past Luke's SM activity. It was OTT and honestly I am not sure that he'd want to be with someone like Sophie going by his SM and how he is about all things "natural" and health and stuff. He is friends with Art Green/BachNZ S1 and has a similar hippie health conscious vibe so I could see him wanting someone who doesn't smoke and more not physically enhanced. So yeah, if his max losses are lowest I could see Sportsbet knowing this in advance.

Will have to keep an eye out on what Sportsbet does with Luke's odds as the season goes
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:13 am

@Bobette wrote:
@AllAboutLove wrote:
@Bobette wrote:Little Jimmy T FTW IMO.  
@Bobette your fave may be F1. How good is that!

SHHHH... Don't say it out loud.  My favourite never wins - I'll jinx him!!!  
It's because it never happens for you that I am going to shout it from the rooftops! MAKE IT HAPPEN bach gods Praying

Plus, Sophie is your fave so it would be awesome if you get to see her love story with your fave pre-season pick!  :yes:

I know how rare it is (I've only watched a love story with my fave leads/F1s happen twice - and that's counting over 40 shows, so the odds are always against me). So hopefully that happens for Sophie and if not I guess we try again next season? laugh out loud
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:17 am

I just can't get past Luke's... everything.  

He's so not what I thought Sophie was looking for and if he was F1 I don't know how long they would last - I feel like he would put too much pressure on her to stop smoking/eat better/exercise more/recite "affirmations" etc etc.  

Sophie said she wants someone "who will just love ME".  From what we know of Luke already from SM, I do not think he fits that description AT ALL.  JMO. This will be Future Me waiting for Luke to eliminate himself:

via GIPHY



Last edited by Bobette on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:28 am; edited 3 times in total
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:18 am

Wasn't Jimmy the one we all went to first? I discounted him because he was short. Lol. I don't think it's Luke, and whilst the say Apollo is an old sole, there's no getting away from the fact that he is 24. Theoretically Sophie could just about be his mum
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:25 am

@Sundy Yep. As posted in the F1-F4 thread and SM thread, James/Jimmy was one that we saw as a possible contender. Will have to see how Jame's odds go during the season. If Luke goes and Intruders don't have good odds and James has consistent odds for a favorite it could be insider knowledge and he wins.

Either way, I am excited to sleuth because the odds this season aren't a hard fast rule yet it seems so more to sleuth 

Also the biggest thing to me is the contestants that Sportsbet has as low odds (3Js) were already sleuthed and speculated as possible contenders so it shows sleuthing works especially pre-season sleuthing  :yes:

ETA: @bobette just saw your post and gif RE Luke:cantstopl:


Last edited by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:27 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:26 am

@Sundy wrote:Wasn't Jimmy the one we all went to first?  I discounted him because he was short. Lol. I don't think it's Luke, and whilst the say Apollo is an old sole, there's no getting away from the fact that he is 24. Theoretically Sophie could just about be his mum

Ain't nothing sexy about that.   cantstopl Perhaps mental images of incest are what's keeping his odds high.

Jimmy wasn't seriously on my radar until he started blabbing about wanting Mini Monks and then I noticed he was in the middle of all the promo pics and wearing velvet (this was before I knew Sophie has a phobia of velvet. laugh out loud).  

We don't have any pics of him on dates but I think there is a gag order forbidding the media from revealing the Top 4 so he may have been - dare I say it - a slow burn/latecomer vs Luke who had a very early publicised date.

These odds have definitely firmed James as my favourite to win - just waiting to see his red carpet meet & greet.  If it follows the same pattern as F1s from seasons 1 & 2 I'll be officially pulling the Jimmy Train out of the station.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:29 am

Jarrod especially and then James were always on my radar as soon as that promo came out with both of them in it and both James and Jarrod on SM lock down. Same with Jefferson, also on SM lock down. I am just kinda chuffed that I posted about those three J's as contenders before Sportsbet posted about them. Yay to sleuthing 
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 7:57 am

So I noticed our old pal, Will Byrne is back laugh out loud and with his commentary for Luke, James, and Jefferson. Will likely knows the winner imo. 

The odds for these three (Luke, James, Jefferson) also make sense given they are ALL from NSW and Sportsbet had odds favorite for NSW winner. 

Based on this, if Luke is not F1 and neither is an intruder then it looks like Sportsbet has James as the main contender for F1. 
Will see if Sportsbet match up with sleuthing and SCs  :detective  


Online bookmaker sportsbet.com.au is already taking bets on who will tick all of Sophie Monk’s boxes on The Bachelorette.

Luke ($3.00), James ($6.00) and Jefferson ($7.50) are the blokes that could tickle her fancy based on early appearances.

So far there has been interest in several of the lotharios ahead of Wednesday night’s premiere.

“There are 18 men lining up for Monk’s heart before she filters through the duds and gets to the dreamboat. Luke, James and Jefferson tick all the boxes – so we’ll be watching closely to see if they tick hers too,” said sportsbet.com.au’s Will Byrne.

https://www.justbetting.com.au/other/entertainment/odds-open-for-sophie-monks-the-bachelorette-australia/
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:20 am

@AllAboutLove wrote:
@Bobette wrote:
@AllAboutLove wrote:
@Bobette your fave may be F1. How good is that!

SHHHH... Don't say it out loud.  My favourite never wins - I'll jinx him!!!  
It's because it never happens for you that I am going to shout it from the rooftops! MAKE IT HAPPEN bach gods Praying

Plus, Sophie is your fave so it would be awesome if you get to see her love story with your fave pre-season pick!  :yes:

I know how rare it is (I've only watched a love story with my fave leads/F1s happen twice - and that's counting over 40 shows, so the odds are always against me). So hopefully that happens for Sophie and if not I guess we try again next season? laugh out loud

From your text to the Bach Gods ears

I just think it would be good for everyone (TPTB included) if we got an underdog victory for once.  

I've already seen comments on SM saying pointing out the contrast between Matty & Sophie in terms of humour/genuineness/personality/"realness".  Matty was never going to give us the slow burn/underdog F1 IMO, but I truly believe Sophie can.  

Seeing a short, "ordinary" bloke like James win the heart of a model/singer/celebrity like Sophie would make great telly, IMO.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by SugarAndSpice on Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:25 am

@Bobette wrote:
snipped:

@AllAboutLove wrote:
@Bobette wrote:Yep.  IMO, public backing can account for Luke's poll position but only insider info explains the odds for the "Triple J's".
I totally agree about the 3J's (James, Jefferson, Jarrod) being insider knowledge. Also love the Triple J moniker laugh out loud So on point.

As for Luke, unless he is eliminated or self-eliminates and thus justifying why he was active on SM in July then something may be awry (someone posting for him and with "live" IG stories that are older and uploaded? I know it can be done on IG so who knows. Seems a bit farfetched but will keep it in mind just in case). IA though that public may be backing Luke based on poll position but wouldn't Sportsbet increase their max bet losses for Luke to make more money if they know for sure he is not F1? It definitely is odd because based on sleuthing, I had posted that Luke may have had Ep3 SD which is the pattern for F1. Only way I see him not being so is if he is eliminated/eliminates himself.

@AllAboutLove, re: Luke leaving of his own accord, that may count as a "scratching" like it would with a horse race but I'm not sure. If the bets just get cancelled and refunded, it would not be in their best interests to allow too much money down on Luke, because they'd have to refund it later.  Far better IMO for them to encourage betting on others who they think/know won't win - then they get to keep it.

Have been looking through the rules on their website.  This seems like it suggests bets would indeed be refunded but I'm not sure - still looking for something more definitive.

253.3 Elimination/Eviction markets apply only to official eliminations/evictions. Any contestant leaving of their own accord or removed by producers will not be treated as the next eliminated/evictee for betting purposes. Sportsbet reserves the right to void all bets placed on an elimination/eviction market should the initial line up for elimination/eviction be changed.

Source

The odds have already started changing today! So I'm guessing people are just diving in straight away now to bet on the favourite while their odds are more profitable. As you mentioned AAL, its interesting that Sportsbet don't have that disclaimer yet. I noticed throughout the Bachelor season there was a quote mentioning that Sportsbet may add contestants at any time (aka intruders), then after awhile they took that disclaimer away. This could be an interesting season for sportsbet odds then!

Also just to address the above disclaimer from Sportsbet, I believe this disclaimer only relates to bets placed on "the next to be eliminated". As bets for Bach/'ette is for an outright winner, that disclaimer does not apply. If a contestant walks, or is removed by producers, it is counted as a loss, and punters will lose their money, as their contestant did not "win".
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Mon Sep 18, 2017 8:25 am

@Bobette SOLD! IA. I think it would be great telly too and the underdog winning would be awesome change! I posted in the F1-F4 thread regarding James SM so let me know your thoughts there.

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