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Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

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Post by SugarAndSpice Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:00 am

Bobette wrote:
SugarAndSpice wrote:Looks like sportsbet is gearing up for the influx of bets leading up to the finals! After Tara's performance on Dubbo radio ("..after I got eliminated..") her odds of winning have definitely decreased. Laura and Elise holding steady with odds, but a big change in max bets as follows:

Laura $1.40, max bet $500, max loss $200 (up from a loss of $40)
Elise $3.50, max bet $200, max loss $500 (up from a loss of $200)
Tara $8.00, max bet $71, max loss $497 (up from a loss of $350)
Source: SportsBet

I suspect as Thursday night draws closer we should see an evening out of odds (or at least max loss) between F1/F2.. if we don't IMO that's highly suspect.

(as a side note - Something funky is happening with Odette from Survivor Au, who had the best odds all season, but just got eliminated. She is still showing up in my "betting shopping basket" with odds of $1001, however, she isnt showing up in the current list of contestants. FOr bachelor contestants, once they are eliminated they are permanently wiped from my "shopping basket". For future Bach/ette sleuthing, I am going to keep an eye on that to see if Odette returns to the show..might explain the winning odds and odd behavior now)

Thanks @SugarAndSpice - I appreciate all that extra info you have that's only accessible with an account.  It's very revealing!

You're welcome thumbsup Now that we are at the pointy end the odds/max loss are changing almost hourly. I'll paste new odds after tonights ep, and before tomorrows ep (unless there is some crazy dramatic change in between, like a change in front runner). If any one wants interim odds on their fave contestant let me know and I will update Smiley
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Post by SugarAndSpice Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:04 am

Katiebelle wrote:
Rikkim wrote:
stoneleigh wrote:

I'll join the club too! There are quite a few of us! Smiley

I'm in too, absolutely agree!

We might have enough for a quorum!

Jump aboard the boat guys! Its a small boat but I offer plenty of cheese and life jackets in case it all goes pear shaped :cheeseyy
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Post by aprawn Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:04 am

Katiebelle wrote:
Rikkim wrote:
stoneleigh wrote:

I'll join the club too! There are quite a few of us! Smiley

I'm in too, absolutely agree!
We might have enough for a quorum!
hehehe

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Post by Bumbleguild Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:05 am

Anymore room on the Elise train? Just hoping it goes all the way to Adelaide so we can pick up her whole family as well, no Matty's needed... hehehe
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Post by mjoy Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:12 am

I have refused to get emotionally attached this season but what I think will happen is:

1) Laura
2) Elise
3) Tara

I do secretly really want Elise to win as it's a nice closure for Matty's slow burn theme from last year but I'm not too emotionally invested that if Laura won, I won't be completely gutted (unlike last year!).
If Elise does win, I do agree that the editing was shite.  TPTB should at least have shown her M&G and had her more prominent in narrations.... pretty much like they did with Matty last year.  That would have a been better full circle narrative for Matty.
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Post by AllAboutLove Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:13 am

Sprite wrote:
AllAboutLove wrote:Yes, Simone said that Laura told them that she had met Matty. I definitely agree that Elise would, because of that and because of her late date in the season, be wanting to get a ton of reassurance (and her family too) from Matty that she is not just being played and used for a storyline.

So basically Matty told her that one date can change everything and that he wished their first date had been earlier. Basically reassuring her that even if he had known Laura before, he was invested in Elise. It's why I think that if Elise is not F1, then she will think that Matty was not genuine and that he went out of his way to lead her on because she and her family talked to him about this.

I just can't get over the word in that interview... the word "bittersweet" which doesn't seem like a good word for a F1 imo. Elise saying being compared to Matty being bittersweet... so heartbreaking...love and lost...imo. I don't see a F1, even one who's love story may not be as obvious use the word bittersweet. OTOH I guess it could be a F1 thing where it's bittersweet because she is F1 and yet OTT media not about her and Matty.

IDK. I hope that Elise isn't F2 and that as even Elise said, Matty was genuine. To me, I get this show, there is always a F2, but given Matty's backstory and being the only lead ever for the Aussie franchise who has been F2, then doing to Elise what was done to him to me would show me he is not genuine. It's cruel. Rather take Tara or Flo there as I don't think they are as invested. 

I don't know what to think sad


I guess I'm more cynical than many of you. If Matty and Laura had met before the show and the others knew that, and then on top of that they saw that she was his favourite, then I don't see any of them getting invested. This would explain much of the way this season came across to me. I don't see Matty that engaged and I don't see the ladies engaged either. Additionally, they know what the show is like. There has to be an F2. I don't care if her family told him not to drag her. Someone has to be F2. If it turns out to be Tara or if it had been Flo, we would still be having this discussion just with different people. Every single season, I see this discussion. Every single one! And who is to say that families of the other women didn't say the same thing? They just show hers saying it since it turned out it she was the F2.

Thank goodness this is over this week. I hope Sophie is more engaging...and the Canadian Bachelor Chris.


I definitely disagree that the discussion would be the same if Flo was F2 versus Elise/"slow-burn" being F2. We KNOW per Flo that Matty never reassured anything for her parents (who weren't even on her HTD). So no, it's not the same to me. I do think different F2s can make a huge difference and the lead as well can play a role in that. I get F2 are F2 but I disagree on it being the same no matter the contestant. No doubt to me that if Nikki hadn't been F2 or Matty hadn't been F2 that it would have been different. Same as Richie if he had been F2 instead of F3. OR Heather had been F2. I've watched this show enough to know that WHO the F2 is does matter IMO. Sam Frost herself said that SHE chose purposefully not to take Richie to F2 because he was more invested. I understand leads who have never been contestants, but leads who have been contestants, especially F2s the idea that a lead who was a slow-burn lead, pushes for a slow-burn in the media, reassures her dad and mom (not just one time with the parents, but twice) is different. Just like I thought Nick being F2 again was not the same as someone else being F2. I get it's "the show" but I do NOT buy into the idea that "TPTB made me do it" as an excuse all the time. The leads are adults, if they choose to be puppets that's still on them. It doesn't absolve them at all. Nor does Matty's spiel of "I am NOT a puppet" on the show. He takes responsibility for his actions just like any other lead prior.  

JMO
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Post by brownravens Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:28 am

I know we've addressed this ad nauseam but I still find it super interesting that based on the FB live the least amount of people want Laura to win - Tara beating her is understandable but Elise too is weird IMO. Compared to Alex, she's been given a generous edit and lots of screen time but people just haven't warmed to her and pretty curious about why. I know we spend tonnes of time analysing (and stalking) so its only natural we develop favourites but it just seems like casual viewers aren't that keen on her and it's confusing me on a conceptual level - there's nothing she's explicitly done.
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Post by niclou Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:30 am

@AllAboutLove I totally agree. I just don't see a scenario where people would be happy with Tara or Elise as F2. I think Laura is the most able to deal with being F2 as she has gained so much from being on the show despite the result. I think it would be really rotten of Matty to do to Elise what was done to him (and after the uproar of Richie/Alex/Nikki). I still believe they're going for the slow burn storyline, otherwise there would be no point in Elise being hidden for so long. They could have just shown her from the beginning as being on a level playing field as the others and let whatever happens, happen...

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Post by SugarAndSpice Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:44 am

AllAboutLove wrote:@niclou I mean don't get me wrong, there's always going to be a F2. But I don't think that no matter who it is it doesn't matter, especially for returnee cast as leads.

jmo

Despite, the Nikkis and Matty J's of the F2 world, to me nothing will ever be as brutal as Sam W getting rid of Heather (Season3) after the HTD. She begged him not to take her to HTD unless he was keen given she had no family to introduce him to. Her back story was so brutal and tragic, that to be dumped after HTD...ergh broke my heart
:tissuebox
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Post by dolcimumma Wed Sep 13, 2017 4:47 am

niclou wrote:@AllAboutLove I totally agree. I just don't see a scenario where people would be happy with Tara or Elise as F2. I think Laura is the most able to deal with being F2 as she has gained so much from being on the show despite the result. I think it would be really rotten of Matty to do to Elise what was done to him (and after the uproar of Richie/Alex/Nikki). I still believe they're going for the slow burn storyline, otherwise there would be no point in Elise being hidden for so long. They could have just shown her from the beginning as being on a level playing field as the others and let whatever happens, happen...

I am hoping that when they say 'will leave the viewers wanting more' they are talking about Elise's slow burn and that is she is F1. That we'll want to see more of their love story unfold Hugesmile!

Because if I have to see one more Toni May ring or necklace ...... :shootme: . seriously I am ok with not seeing those anymore Smiley

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Post by AllAboutLove Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:12 am

I think TPTB are full of BS and not only cheap as ever but as predictable as ever. They can't blame the media for being OTT when they themselves have been over the top pushing Laura and thus Toni May. 

Considering their financial woes and that Matty did NOT get paid anything close to what media said (Sophie has refuted claims she was paid $300k and actually said she LOST money). 

I know it is easy to buy that the network was just so desperate for these leads they forked over tons of cash but that is NOT how this show works. IMO and what I know for as a fact. 

I also think that given Ten's financial woes that they can't afford a non-predictable ending which is why I think they spoiled their own season from the getgo - even having their own lead talk how he spoiled the season "by mistake" (yeah right). 

It's all fake to me and totally scripted and I think from even before the season aired I think Laura and Matty knew each other and she specifically was brought in to play a role with Matty. Her compensation for such imo was her being to promote her Toni May stuff and the show too.

JMO
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Post by Emayem Wed Sep 13, 2017 5:19 am

brownravens wrote:I know we've addressed this ad nauseam but I still find it super interesting that based on the FB live the least amount of people want Laura to win - Tara beating her is understandable but Elise too is weird IMO. Compared to Alex, she's been given a generous edit and lots of screen time but people just haven't warmed to her and pretty curious about why. I know we spend tonnes of time analysing (and stalking) so its only natural we develop favourites but it just seems like casual viewers aren't that keen on her and it's confusing me on a conceptual level - there's nothing she's explicitly done.

I don't think it is anything she has done, I just think she is too snobby maybe for the Australian public. We love to get behind the funny one, the one who is a little bit bogan, the underdogs. Someone like Laura just doesn't resonate with the majority of the public.

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