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Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by AllAboutLove on Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:03 am

@ideas_ideas I honestly think they did the #1 #2 thing intentionally. Just like they posted implying how all the girls (except Laura) found besties and thus only Laura found love. Massive spoiler imo
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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by SugarAndSpice on Fri Sep 15, 2017 6:09 am

Calling all Elise, Tara, and Laura fans! I'm currently finishing up some stats from this seasons odds and as you can imagine there is a fair bit of data floating about!

There were a few key events throughout the series that caused a change in the odds. To save me some time (and from missing something), if any of you lovely sleuths could help collate a few tid-bits that would be super appreciated. Not everything is listed in episode guide so its getting to be a bit bothersome!
Here's a list of what Im after -
Episode number for:
* Laura SD's and SQTs
* Tara SD's and SQTs
* Elise SD's and SQTs, CP fishing thing
Also the dates of any significant media events (like DM article spoiling SHV)
And of course, if there was any other significant event for either of those three girls during the show feel free to add that to the list as well and I will see if it correlates with a change in odds!!

Thank you so much lovely people Praying blowkiss
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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by SugarAndSpice on Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:20 am

OK! Data has been finalised and graphed! IMO the odds represent the changes in public betting, and the max loss represents the risk sportsbet is willing to take (ie the higher the loss, the higher the risk to sportsbet).

Fig 1 shows the raw data of odds and Max loss for the F3 ladies. Episode numbers are shown. The inset for each graph is focusing on the odds/max loss for ep15 and ep16


Figure 1: Max loss and odds for F3 ladies. Inset is focused on changes during ep15 and ep16.


Fig 2
represents the normalised data to compare the swing in odds/max loss ratio between Laura and Elise. Note that I havent marked ALL episodes, because I did not take odds at the start/end of all eps, but did do so in between. So for correctness, I haven't labelled all episodes on the chart. To simplify this means the following:
Odds
Laura consistently had better odds of winning than Elise. After Laura's 1 SD (ep3) her odds of winning were 88% vs 12% for Elise. I don't think that would surprise anyone, because Elise was no where to be seen at this point.
The best odds for Elise (30%) occurred at ep14, but were still significantly lower than Laura's (70%). Again, not a surprise really, given the betting public believed Laura to be the winner (IMO)

Max loss
This represents how much sportsbet was willing to risk. IMO this tells us who sportsbet thinks is most likely to win. Therefore, the bar chart for max loss represents the %chance sportsbet thought that contestant would lose (be F2).  For the entire season, the loss for Laura was significantly less than Elise, ie the chance of sportsbet losing out was always lowest with Laura, therefore, they believed she would be F1. The lowest max loss for Laura was 4% vs Elise's 96%, this occurred at the start of Ep9, following Laura's SQT at the nepean (ep 8). Whats interesting is that after Elise came into the picture (Ep10 1SD) there was a period of time where Sportsbet had almost 50/50 max loss for Elise vs Laura. After Ep13 (elises SQT), this changed back to favour Laura as F1.


Figure 2: Normalised odds and max loss comparing Laura (red) and Elise (pink).  With relevant episodes or events marked.
Source: My data from sportsbet

Conclusions
Based on odds, the betting public consistently rated Laura as most likely to win.
Based on Max loss, Sportsbet consistently rated Laura as most likely to win. However, once Elise had her 1SD sportsbet showed some uncertainty and had Laura and Elise almost with 50/50 chance of winning. This changed after the SQT (James Blunt) with Elise, to once again favour Laura.
Did sportsbet know the outcome? Most likely. Though the uncertainty shown after Elises 1SD is notable, and could indicate Sportsbet may not have had concrete evidence.

Of course, other than the hard facts (odds/max loss) the interpretation thereof is all my opinion.
And that Sleuths, is the stats summary for Matty's season of the Bachelor!
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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by Bobette on Sat Sep 16, 2017 2:34 am

clapping! AMAZING WORK!!!  @SugarAndSpice I love it.  I believe what we have here is a textbook example of a one-horse race.  Thanks so much for putting this together.  yes
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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by AllAboutLove on Sat Sep 16, 2017 6:23 am

Geeking out over here as I'm in love with your data and graphs @SugarAndSpice    Awesome job tyvm for all you did this season with regards to bettings stats! 


Regarding betting odds: Laura was exactly like Lee and always with the F1 odds pre-season and during season  :yes:


Pretty cool to see, without any emotion or bias, that math/s (stats) are still the greatest indicator of F1  yes
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Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #3

Post by GuardianAngel on Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:28 am

General Discussion thread for Matty and Laura

Feel free to move any posts over for further discussion.

Tip. Quote the post as if you were going to reply to it. Copy the whole post. Back out of the thread so you don't disturb the post.

Paste it in the reply box of the thread of your choice.

This might not work if the thread is locked but it's the easiest way to move a post. If you want a post moved over and can't, PM myself at anytime.


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