Welcome!!

Become a Member of our site to be able to post and join in on the conversations! Guests are welcomed, our threads are not locked.

A site for fans of The Bachelor & The Bachelorette who enjoy
sleuthing and discussing Spoilers and Non Spoilers!

Discuss a variety of other shows, as well as International Bachelor and Bachelorette!

Please read the Rules!

bbspoilerfans@outlook.com

http://www.bachandbachettefans.net/f1-about-our-site-rules-guidelines

Enjoy!

Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Fri May 25, 2018 8:10 am

Thank you @Sundy.  

According to this article, Sophie is 25 (now, was 24 when interviewed) and is from QLD.  Britt is age unknown, presumably from NSW since her HTD was in Pt Macquarie.  

Will be interesting to see how the odds change in a week or so when presumably filming will have wrapped.
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Fri Jun 01, 2018 8:01 am

As at right now the odds have not changed
avatar
Sundy

Female Posts : 4129
Join date : 2014-09-29

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:36 pm

Max bet for age between 25-30 has gone up from $90 to $100. 
Hair remains the same
States remain the same
avatar
Sundy

Female Posts : 4129
Join date : 2014-09-29

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sat Jun 09, 2018 9:02 pm

Copied from Ali's Bette thread:

@Bobette wrote:
@flojo031 wrote:
I'm not Australian, so not familar with Sportsbet. Bobette, how often are they right about certain things? Do they have insider knowledge?

@flojo031.  Always.  They are always right.  At least, they have correctly predicted the winner for every season I have sleuthed since I joined the forum and I believe before that too (for Bach, Bachette, and even who would get engaged on BiP AU, which no one else saw coming, although we did find paparazzo pics when the odds came out and I went hunting for evidence).  

I think they definitely have insider information.  I suspect it's probably the paparazzos or people who work directly or indirectly for the show (cameramen, editors, catering staff, makeup artists, cleaners etc etc; there would be a lot of people who would be in the know) but it wouldn't surprise me if the info comes from TPTB themselves and Ch 10 is somehow profiting.

It could be argued that the odds reflect who the audience think will win (i.e. large bets get placed on a contestant, and the odds get shorter, other people see them as a favourite, so they also place bets, and the odds get shorter accordingly etc etc). This is how it works with regular betting (horses etc). However this doesn't sufficiently explain the odds for a TV show.

The person who is F1 has always had the lowest Max Loss figure from their first appearance on the show (either on night 1, or in the case of Sophie's F1 Stu, when he arrived as an intruder).  And they have always had a disclaimer that "the show is pre-filmed and results may be known" (i.e. THEY KNOW!).  There's been debate about whether accepting bets on a pre-determined outcome is ethical, and at one stage it looked like it was going to be banned, but it's still going on.

To explain Max Losses:

The odds are a good indication of who will win but that's only part of the story.  Sportsbet also have a limit on how much you can bet on someone (called a Max Bet).  This determines how much Sportsbet will actually have to pay out if that person wins (the Max Loss for Sportsbet).  This enables them to be tricky and disguise the winner to a certain extent, or make it look like a close race when then know it's not.  

Say for example they give the winner odds of 1.75.  That means that for every dollar I bet, if that person wins, Sportsbet have to give me $1.75.  They obviously want to minimise their losses, so they might set the Max Bet at $10.  This means I can only bet up to $10 on that person.  My maximum payout is $17.50, but they already have my original $10 so my actual profit (and therefore Sportbet's Max Loss) is only $7.50.  Once they take their fees, I'd be lucky to get enough profit to buy a cup of tea.

Conversely, they might set another contestant's odds at 8.00, with a max bet of $100.  That means if I bet $100 and that person wins, I get $700 profit! ($800 payout minus my original $100 bet).  If that person is edited on the show to look like they might win, uneducated punters rush to throw down $100 each, thinking they're onto a winner, but of course they don't win, and Sportsbet keeps their cash.

Things get even more tricky when the results are not yet known. Check out these calculations made by @Sundy on Nick's Bachelor betting odds page Here

@Sundy wrote:Max bets odds on www.sportsbet.com.au are as follows- 

Hair colour 
Black @$7.50 and max bet of $15.00 = total profit - $97.50
Brown @$2.50 and max bet of $67.00 = total profit - $100.50
Blonde @ $1.75 and max bet of $133.00 = total profit $99.75

Age
31-35 @$3.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $100.00
25-30 @ $2.00 and max bet of $100.00 = total profit of $100.00
Less than 25 $4.00 and max bet of $33.00 = total profit of $99.00

State
QLD @  $4.50 and max bet of $29.00 = total profit of $101.50
Vic @ $3.50 and a max bet of $40.00 = total profit of $100.00
NSW @ $2.50 and max bet of $67.00 = total profit of $100.50
SA @ $7.00 and max bet of $17.00 = total profit of $102.00
WA @ $8.00 and max bet of $14.00 = total profit of $98.00

You can see that although the odds for blonde, brunette etc are wildly different, the actual Max Loss for Sportsbet is practically the same.  This means they don't yet know who wins (or didn't at the time - these sums were done a few weeks ago before he picked his F1) and are not taking it very seriously at this stage since what they lose on one they will make back on another.

As soon as the girls arrive on night 1, the hair colour/home state markets will close, Sportsbet will set up a market for the individual girls by name, and it will be immediately obvious who wins IMO.  We know that none of the intruders make it to the end so the girl with the lowest Max Loss figure after the premiere is almost guaranteed to be F1.

Sportsbet are in the business of making money and they are not going to risk people placing huge bets on the winner early on, and they don't care about spoiling the show, so they just set the odds to make them maximum profit (lowest max loss for the winner and enticing odds for other contestants who look like they might win, to encourage people to bet).

During Georgia's season they made the mistake of placing Lee's Max Bet too high and his odds too long, loads of people bet in the first few hours and made a killing, from what I can gather.  They are not going to risk that happening again and we saw this with Matty's season - Laura was a clear frontrunner from the minute she stepped out of the limo.

Writing that got me thinking about what the odds might be for Nick's girls individually  I'm wondering if we might she Sophie with shortest odds/lowest max loss and then Cassandra, Romy and Shannon with low odds but higher max losses.  

Shannon & Romy get the first two dates so presumably there's sparks between them & Nick on the first night - punters may assume one of those will win especially if either gets the FIR so SB will allow a high max bet to lure in more profits.  

Also there's been so much talk in the press of how Cassandra and Nick dated prior to the show, people who've read that might think they've got the inside scoop and rush to be on her, especially if SB entice them with the illusion of good profits.

If the zoo was Britt's first date and we haven't missed one early on, they're going to want to hide her in the odds IMO.  I think we'll see what we did with Elise - they had her at something like 8.0 on night 1 and her odds didn't shorten till much later.

I think they do this deliberately so that people "kick themselves" that they didn't bet on the finalists earlier. The did the same with Jake on Georgia's season - he was 35.0 at one stage and then made it to Top 3 with a lot of people thinking he would win.

IMO their psychology is to try to encourage people to bet loose and large early on, so they make last year's F2 look like they could have almost won and people will think they could have almost made massive profits. It's really quite clever/diabolical.
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sun Jun 10, 2018 3:55 am

Odds are unchanged as of today for Nicks season
avatar
Sundy

Female Posts : 4129
Join date : 2014-09-29

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Wed Jun 20, 2018 4:50 am

Ever so slight change in one of the betting fields. Qld now has a max bet of $25 with a return of $5. It kinda works out the same as before but not sure why it’s moved???
avatar
Sundy

Female Posts : 4129
Join date : 2014-09-29

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:13 am

@Sundy wrote:Ever so slight change in one of the betting fields. Qld now has a max bet of $25 with a return of $5. It kinda works out the same as before but not sure why it’s moved???

Thanks @Sundy. The fact that the only change is to the QLD odds is significant IMO considering Sophie is from Brisbane, even if the actual returns are not that different.  No reason at all to be fiddling with the QLD odds at all unless she's F1 IMO.  In all these markets they only pay out on the winner, so the odds for the F1's 'criteria' are the only ones they'd care about IMO. Suspect
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sun Jun 24, 2018 4:50 pm

Can anyone see the betting odds for The Bach on Sportsbet?
avatar
Sundy

Female Posts : 4129
Join date : 2014-09-29

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sun Jun 24, 2018 5:58 pm

@Sundy wrote:Can anyone see the betting odds for The Bach on Sportsbet?

Nope!  Weird.  They've have odds for ages which are practically useless (identical payout for each) and now nothing? Maybe he does choose no one and they're trying to work out how to handle it?  Or maybe it just disappeared and will be back later - it's happened before with the Bette page. no idea
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Dirty Street Pie on Sun Jun 24, 2018 7:18 pm

Choosing no one is their best case scenario, as it's winner takes all, so no one wins. I'll be a bit suspicious if the odds come back and there is an option for him to pick no one.
avatar
Dirty Street Pie

Female Posts : 1351
Join date : 2015-09-26
Location : Australia

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:03 pm

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Choosing no one is their best case scenario, as it's winner takes all, so no one wins. I'll be a bit suspicious if the odds come back and there is an option for him to pick no one.

If that happens, the result will be even more obvious than not having Sam's name on the list of people to propose on Bach in Paradise, and Sportsbet's integrity will plummet to an all-time low IMO.  

Taking bets on a pre-determined outcome when you know there's no chance of any punters getting a return MUST be illegal, surely?  If not, someone needs to do an inquiry into entertainment betting ASAP.

Me waiting for the odds to return: 2pop
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sun Jun 24, 2018 9:55 pm

UPDATE:  Some deep diving on the SB wesbsite has yielded this:



Source

NO RESULT eh? Suspect My spidey sense is tingling...  

What do you reckon, @Sundy, @Dirty Street Pie?  question
avatar
Bobette

Posts : 5642
Join date : 2016-10-10
Location : Australia <3

Back to top Go down

Re: Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum