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Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:16 am

@Vogue, yes I realise Sporstbet don't make much money from entertainment betting, it's pretty obvious from some of the markets they don't take it seriously. laugh out loud  That's one of the things that makes me doubt they'd bother having a "decoy" F1.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Popcorn For All on Sat Oct 27, 2018 11:24 am

@Bobette wrote:@Vogue, yes I realise Sporstbet don't make much money from entertainment betting, it's pretty obvious from some of the markets that they don't take it seriously.  That's one of the things that makes me doubt they'd bother having a "decoy" F1.

Very good point, Bobette! thumbsup

So perhaps we can start speculating about what happens during the FRC?



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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:46 pm

Copied from SM/Media thread to reply here

@LoveDovez wrote:
@Bobette wrote:
@Sundy wrote:@Bobette, usually correct about the two endings for Masterchef but this year they only filmed one ending and the winner was known for months

Thanks @Sundy for clarifying that Masterchef was different this season.

Vogue wrote: I know very well how betting works, Bobette,  I have an account with Sportsbet because I place bets for the spring Carnival Smiley  Now, I agree with a few of your observations. It seems that Sportsbet tends to be correct about TB.  You said, 'always'  but that is inaccurate since they were wrong during Nick's season

@Vogue, Sportsbet was one of the biggest clues for me that Nick would choose no one, due to the unprecedented $1000 max bets and the fact that they briefly had a "chooses no one" option, so I don't take that as them being wrong at all.  On the contrary, this proves even more IMO that they knew the end result. One just needed to read between the lines.  
There's nothing like that going on with betting this season - it's standard Sportsbet mindgames for the F2 down as they manipulate the odds/max bets in line with what's being shown and who the public favours a the time, to encourage bets and maximise their profit$.  But Taite has been a rock solid F1 from the start, just like Lee and Laura before them.  There's no way Taite's not the winner IMO and you can quote me on that.
@Bobette and @Allaboutlove why are there spoilers for MC on Ali's link?  Bummer. ; (  @Bobette I totally agree with you about Taite. I think she will be woed by Todd and she will really like him, but I think she will know her heart is with Taite. She's already said he's been on her mind since the start of the journey.
@LoveDovez, MC has already aired and ended and no longer on TV thus there's no spoilers for it as it's over already. Apologies for anyone who hasn't watched it yet but spoilers apply to future and current seasons, not past ones.

@Bobette IA that Taite is F1. Thought it was him before the season and SB's odds posted and only more convinced that Sportsbet knows this as they always do and are in bed with the show. It sucks since it's so obvious and can make it feel like what's the point but I was excited to sleuth regardless. 

With Nick's season Sportsbet were accurate since the last person at the FRC is technically the intended F1 and that was Britt (same as with Bach USA's Brad who chose no one and DeAnna* was seen as the technical intended F1 as she was last to the FRC). That SB even put "picks no one" and quickly took it down tells me that SB knew he picked no one and took that option down as it was literally way too obvious that they would only know this since they were told it by insiders (considering they'd never had that option for any of the past seasons). Hopefully one day SB will choose to not be so obvious with their winner's pick but since this is all about money, that's all they care about so it's not like other spoilers where money isn't involved. Basically they have to be "right on the money".


Last edited by AllAboutLove on Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:42 am; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : *Corrected to DeAnna)
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sprite on Sat Oct 27, 2018 10:43 pm

@AllAboutLove Off topic but Brad 1 he picked nobody and the last woman standing was DeAnna...hence why she got her own season. Brad 2 he picked Emily and Chantal the slapper was F2.


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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:45 am

@Sprite thank you! I meant DeAnna and put Chantal laugh out loud Corrected my post. So Sportsbet having Britt as last one standing is same as DeAnna being last one standing as seen as the intended/"technical" F1. Sportsbet knew that Brit was the last girl to arrive imo and that's why they had her in the F1 spot. O/T if Brit ends up next lead even more so but that's for another tthread.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by LoveDovez on Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:37 am

@AllAboutLove wrote:Copied from SM/Media thread to reply here

@LoveDovez wrote:
@Bobette wrote:
@Sundy wrote:@Bobette, usually correct about the two endings for Masterchef but this year they only filmed one ending and the winner was known for months

Thanks @Sundy for clarifying that Masterchef was different this season.

Vogue wrote: I know very well how betting works, Bobette,  I have an account with Sportsbet because I place bets for the spring Carnival Smiley  Now, I agree with a few of your observations. It seems that Sportsbet tends to be correct about TB.  You said, 'always'  but that is inaccurate since they were wrong during Nick's season

@Vogue, Sportsbet was one of the biggest clues for me that Nick would choose no one, due to the unprecedented $1000 max bets and the fact that they briefly had a "chooses no one" option, so I don't take that as them being wrong at all.  On the contrary, this proves even more IMO that they knew the end result. One just needed to read between the lines.  
There's nothing like that going on with betting this season - it's standard Sportsbet mindgames for the F2 down as they manipulate the odds/max bets in line with what's being shown and who the public favours a the time, to encourage bets and maximise their profit$.  But Taite has been a rock solid F1 from the start, just like Lee and Laura before them.  There's no way Taite's not the winner IMO and you can quote me on that.
@Bobette and @Allaboutlove why are there spoilers for MC on Ali's link?  Bummer. ; (  @Bobette I totally agree with you about Taite. I think she will be woed by Todd and she will really like him, but I think she will know her heart is with Taite. She's already said he's been on her mind since the start of the journey.
@LoveDovez, MC has already aired and ended and no longer on TV thus there's no spoilers for it as it's over already. Apologies for anyone who hasn't watched it yet but spoilers apply to future and current seasons, not past ones.

@Bobette IA that Taite is F1. Thought it was him before the season and SB's odds posted and only more convinced that Sportsbet knows this as they always do and are in bed with the show. It sucks since it's so obvious and can make it feel like what's the point but I was excited to sleuth regardless. 

With Nick's season Sportsbet were accurate since the last person at the FRC is technically the intended F1 and that was Britt (same as with Bach USA's Brad who chose no one and DeAnna* was seen as the technical intended F1 as she was last to the FRC). That SB even put "picks no one" and quickly took it down tells me that SB knew he picked no one and took that option down as it was literally way too obvious that they would only know this since they were told it by insiders (considering they'd never had that option for any of the past seasons). Hopefully one day SB will choose to not be so obvious with their winner's pick but since this is all about money, that's all they care about so it's not like other spoilers where money isn't involved. Basically they have to be "right on the money".


@Allaboutlove No big deal, I guess. I was gonna watch MC online, but now I don't have to, I guess.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:03 am

@LoveDovez aww. O/T I watched it after it already aired and knew the ending and it was still good yes
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:37 am

@Vogue I think with Snez she was never a popular betting choice. Everyone was losing their mind over Heather. She was so good to watch so I kinda think Snez took many by surprise. Us sleuthing knew it was Snez though
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:45 am

I've been keeping an eye on TAB this season and they're even more on the money than Sportsbet imo with very little fluctuation compared to Sportsbet



https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Entertainment/competitions/The%20Bachelorette/matches/The%20Bachelorette
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sun Oct 28, 2018 6:56 am

@AllAboutLove - wow that's really interesting.  I could actually see that being the exact order of elimination.  :yes:

I wouldn't be surprised if TAB make even less from entertainment betting that Sbet (I've seen Sbet ads during Bach/ette but not TAB) so can't be bothered tweaking their numbers in the way Sbet do, just put the names in order and set it on autopilot.  laugh out loud

Noted for future seasons yes
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:11 am

@Bobette Ikr! It's like the order for elimination laugh out loud Like they can't even be bothered playing games, just "here it is, bid away" laugh out loud I'll laugh if so.

Definitely agree they have less profit and likely less "eyes" (media) on them too so they just go with what they know. Seems like all these betting sites are in the know

IA, will be noting TAB for future seasons yes
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Tue Oct 30, 2018 3:12 am

TAB currently. 

laugh out loud at Taite's odds. Clear favorite. I suspect Todd's odd will change a bit after his SD this week and screentime 



https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Entertainment/competitions/The%20Bachelorette/matches/The%20Bachelorette
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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