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Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Tue Oct 23, 2018 1:13 am

Two new markets.  Gulp.  Suffice to say confidence is LOW in Ali's season. I wonder if they've heard something...



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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Wed Oct 24, 2018 12:50 am

I don't like how SB is placing the odds. Preferred how they had it previously.

Taite's odds now at $1.65! Clear favorite. Anyone know what the max odds are now for these guys? TYIA 



https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelorette/The-Bachelorette-Australia-2018-3692227
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:15 am

@AllAboutLove all max bets at $100 with the exception of Taite who is $95. A source I have who wishes not to be named has mentioned that no one is betting on this season. Seems like a dud of a season on all fronts
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:24 am

@Sundy TY yes

No one as in zero people? Or just fewer than past seasons? I know some who have bet this season but I can believe the latter for sure, especially with lackluster interest in Ali and after Nick's season ending... SB should have kept the "picks no one" option for Nick's season - even with refunds I think they screwed themselves a bit by not doing so and the ending.

Harder to bid on something if the ending is now seen as likely not a sure bet. TPTB putting out the preview with the ending of Ali sobbing only adds to that even with the no picks option this time around I can see less people wanting to bid. 

Looks like lots of money lost for Nick's season and now Ali's for SB. Wonder what tricks they'll have to come up with to restore that. 

I hope they'd stop getting inside scoops on the show (wishful thinking on my part). I much preferred sleuthing without SB for the seasons that it wasn't a known thing like it is now.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:25 am

Sorry to clarify, just a lot less @AllAboutLove
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by AllAboutLove on Wed Oct 24, 2018 1:30 am

@Sundy I believe it. Ali aside, Nick picking no one has changed the game for SB. Most people want to be a sure thing, and his ending changed that. 

I just hope that those who don't care for Ali (justifiably so) watch or still get invested somehow because otherwise it could end with no Bette (Bach is for sure next year). I don't think they'll cancel Bette after this season but betting and watching seem to go hand in hand and I'd like there to be more Bette AU seasons in the future 
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Fri Oct 26, 2018 8:14 pm

New odds.  New market (lowest rating episode).

Stretching Todd's odd out to a lengthy 8:00 is a CLEAR money grabbing exercise IMO considering we know the next episode is going to be a Todd Festival.  

Especially considering what @Sundy said about not many people betting this season.  And what a COINCIDENCE we are now getting DM articles claiming Todd wins.

I can just imagine how many people are going to be throwing money down when it starts to look like he could win, thinking they'll clean up with odds like that.  

Don't do it, suckers!  JMO





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ETA:  By the way Sportsbet, your new page layout sucks.  It's like 80% blank white space and makes it difficult to screencap.  Have some consideration please.  laugh out loud
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:20 am

So I’ve been watching these odds trying to work out something. It seems that the odds decrease for a period of 7 days and then default back to $100. Todd’s did it when it went to $95 and so did Taites when it went to $50 and $95. I’m wondering how many bets it takes to drop the odds or if a wager would automatically drop the max bet?  Surely there’s not someone there manually adjusting the max bets every time someone bets?  It would all be worked out with algorithms surely. 

I don’t know where I’m going with this but it’s interesting. It also means that, if a bet is dropping the max bet then SB aren’t exposing themselves to much and one season, not necessarily this one though, they could have a fake F1.  

Someone keen to put a bet on and see what it does?
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:41 am

@Sundy, my thoughts on the fake F1 are I would LOVE it if Sbet did that but I can't see them doing anything that would risk losing them substantial dollar$.  

So IMO if they did, there would be a very tight margin between the "real" F1 and the fake F1.  Kind of like Britt and Sophie's odds at the start of Nick's season.

I certainly could not in a million years see them giving a real F1 odds of 8:0 since they would stand to lose too much, so they're not doing it this season, IMO.

I agree there are algorithms at work but I also suspect they have some kind of episode guide or similar to tell them who's going to be "hot" in a particular week.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Sundy on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:55 am

@Bobette I tend to agree with this season at the moment but I’m sure they will do it at some stage
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Sat Oct 27, 2018 6:59 am

@Sundy wrote:@Bobette I tend to agree with this season at the moment but I’m sure they will do it at some stage

I hope so. If they do I reckon we'll be able to tell because it will conflict with our other sleuthing.  Go on Sportsbet, I DARE you.
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Popcorn For All on Sat Oct 27, 2018 7:08 am

@Bobette wrote:@Sundy, my thoughts on the fake F1 are I would LOVE it if Sbet did that but I can't see them doing anything that would risk losing them any money at all.  

So IMO if they did, there would be a very tight margin between the "real" F1 and the fake F1.  Kind of like Britt and Sophie's odds at the start of Nick's season.

I certainly could not in a million years see them giving the F1 odds of 8:0 since they would stand to lose too much, so they're not doing it this season, IMO.

I agree there are algorithms at work but I also suspect they have some kind of episode guide or similar to tell them who's going to be "hot" in a particular week.

Bobette and @sundy at this point I admit that I too think Taite wins,but  after what just happened with Masterchef this year I  am considering the possibility of someone else winning.  First, I just want to say this, the betting agencies make very little money with TB franchise due to punter behaviour. Sportsbet doesn't really make that much with TB, no way. We need to consider this: If the favourite's odds are too short, experienced punters who have had an account for a while and place bets also for the races or sports, are not likely to bet on a favourite with very low odds, and inexperienced punters will usually go for the favourite if he pays well and/or be reluctant to pay more than 25 dollars for a contestant with significant lower chances to win. That is why what Sportsbet did this year with MC was genius, because they knew they were deceiving people when they had Khanh as the favourite, and that diverted the attention from Sashi, Sashi was paying - initially- 6.5 dollars! I placed my bet for Sashi when he was at those odds, a nice bet ;)  I never placed a bet for Khanh. This year all betting agencies were in it: Sportsbet, William Hill, Landbrokes and I believe even TAB they all played with the odds and confused people, plus MC is far more popular than The Bachelor/The Bachelorette.

What I would like to know is what happens during the Final Rose Ceremony and if Ali and Taite are still together or not. I wonder if Sportsbet is soon going to add another choice.

By the way, I just checked and guess what? in 2015 Snezana was paying 11 dollars and when someone tried to place a big bet she became the favourite paying 6 dollars... I found that online  minutes ago. I wasn't following the show back then, were you, @sundy?
The article about Snezana is here:

https://www.bettingpro.com.au/category/entertainment/the-bachelor-australia-odds-201507300017/
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Re: Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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