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Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by GuardianAngel on Fri Jun 14, 2019 11:03 pm

@Dirty Street Pie thanks for the updates!


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Post by Bobette on Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:02 pm

CHANGES.  @Dirty Street Pie could you be a doll and check max bets for black vs blonde and VIC vs QLD?  Looks like they might be trying to obscure the winner even further with the higher odds for black/QLD.  TYIA.  :frommeto  

Noteworthy: Chelsea is a blonde from Melbourne. Trying to make the F2 look like F1 perhaps? question

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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Fri Jun 21, 2019 9:56 pm

Your wish is my command @Bobette, and there has definitely been some movement :

                             Max bet                  Max winnings

Blonde                   143                         243
Black.                    15.                          112.50
Brunette.               43.                          141.90
Red.                      20.                          120

Vic.                      50.                           100
Qld.                     20.                           130
NSW.                   25.                           75
WA.                     20.                           80
SA.                     20.                           240

Our black haired Queenslander is looking shaky, with NSW and WA now having the best odds. This might come down to Sportsbet knowing which states the contestants are from, and if there are proportionally more from NSW and WA then it’s more likely they are from there? Or maybe the F2 are from NSW and WA, but they don’t know who F1 is yet? The hair colour isn’t really definitive yet either, apart from it looking very unlikely that there is a blonde in the F2. Sorry Chelsie laugh out loud
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Post by Agent99 on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:03 pm

The red hair odds are interesting. Seeing as we have no photos of any...

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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:25 pm

@Agent99 wrote:The red hair odds are interesting.  Seeing as we have no photos of any...
I agree @Agent99, we’ve got 23 contestant threads, with none that could be considered redheads, how many girls are there usually? Around 24? And I don’t think we’ve seen any redheads in any of the admittedly very few papped group dates? It could just be a red(head) herring as there is no second place in Bachelor betting, the only odds that matter are the winners
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Post by Bobette on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:51 pm

@Dirty Street Pie rock Thanks m'Lady!

Red hair is interesting but not as interesting as the rainbow mohawk. laugh out loud  Can't believe that's something the paps would miss so either they're taking the piss or some girls being kept completely off our radar for one reason or another.  

So now we have WA and NSW as the favourites?!  What are you playing at Sportsbet.  NSW an obvious choice but WA rarely features that highly. [Note to self: check Ali's early odds to see where Taite/VIC and Todd/WA were placed].

Black hair still unusually high in the rankings though so IMO that's our biggest betting clue at this stage.

ETA: Contestant numbers from previous seasons (including intruders)

Nick - 29
Matty - 22
Richie - 25
Sam - 21
Blake - 32
Tim - 25

So average is about 23-24. Hmmm....



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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:57 pm

LOL, I didn't even bother doing the rainbow Mohawk or bald, because they are clearly pisstakes by Sportsbet, like when they put really ridiculous options in the next Bachelor betting. Black hair is the only constant at the moment, will be interesting to see how many have black hair when contestants are announced.
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Post by Bobette on Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:16 pm

Just checked Ali's thread.  Taite's criteria had the lowest preseason max payout (though only just).  And of course when the individual odds came out, he was the clear winner.  

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Really want to try to work out who this black haired girl is before the premiere because it'll be all over red rover at that stage (unless an intruder wins... which probably isn't likely)

Clearly Sportsbet are no dummies.  Look at that MASSIVE max bet for blondes.  IMO they're confident the winner isn't blonde, and are banking on the fact that people will think she is.

All suggests to me that either F2 or an early favourite will be blonde and that F1 will definitely not be .   :yes:

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:
                             Max bet                  Max winnings

Blonde                   143                         243
Black.                    15.                          112.50
Brunette.               43.                          141.90
Red.                      20.                          120

Vic.                      50.                           100
Qld.                     20.                           130
NSW.                   25.                           75
WA.                     20.                           80
SA.                     20.                           240

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ETA: Do we have any non-MOTs from WA? question
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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Fri Jun 21, 2019 11:41 pm

There are so many blondes that it seems given that there will be a blonde front runner. I really don’t know that we have any front runners named apart from Chelsie, as everyone that we’ve managed to get names for has been MOT based on their return to Instagram. Damn you TPTB for cracking down on social media this year!
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Post by Bobette on Sat Jun 22, 2019 12:05 am

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:There are so many blondes that it seems given that there will be a blonde front runner. I really don’t know that we have any front runners named apart from Chelsie, as everyone that we’ve managed to get names for has been MOT based on their return to Instagram. Damn you TPTB for cracking down on social media this year!

I really want to find the samba dancer.  

I've looked at so many dance school pics it's ridiculous.  If she's a professional it would be her own feather headdress IMO, so I was trying to find a match for that as well as her but came up blank.  

Knowing TPTB she's probably not even a dancer and just has a Brazilian father or something so they ran with it as her gimmick.  laugh out loud  I still don't think her technique looks very polished in the video....



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Of the other black haired girls we know of, Keely & Vakoo went out early, Sogand was active on SM mid-season and Cassandra was so blatant she may as well have printed 'I DO NOT WIN' on her t-shirt.

Then there's blue sequin. I had her pegged as an MOT but they do have that brother-sister mirror image lookalike thing going on here IMO.  I wonder if she's from WA...  Dammit paps we nee more pictures!

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Post by ThankMeLater on Sat Jun 22, 2019 9:42 am

Correct me if I am wrong here bc this odds business is quite confusing laugh out loud So the new odds are saying that the f1 is definitely not a blonde but rather one who has black hair and is from NSW?

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Post by Bobette on Sat Jun 22, 2019 10:31 am

@ThankMeLater wrote:Correct me if I am wrong here bc this odds business is quite confusing laugh out loud So the new odds are saying that the f1 is definitely not a blonde but rather one who has black hair and is from NSW?

@ThankMeLater, essentially, yes, however it's not so much the odds as the full max loss calculation and the psychology behind it.  

Bach sleuthing has led me to discover that bookies are some of the most intelligent, calculating, diabolically sharp minds in our society.  They employ all kinds of mind games to entice people to give them money and they do it very successfully.  

When it comes to Bach, they IMO have insiders feeding them information.  It might be the paps, a crew member, maybe even TPTB themselves, but they always know who wins, and they fix the numbers so the winner will lose them the least money.

So there's two parts to the calculation: the odds and the max bets.  At first glance the current odds make it look like the most likely winner will be a blonde from Vic, since those are the criteria with the shortest odds.  The mind games have commenced.

Anyone casually following the pre-show media would have seen a few blondes in the mix, and have read that Matt is from Vic, so this would seem to make sense (and will probably seem even more likely when the girls are introduced on night one).

So they might think OK I'll throw down a bet on the blonde category.  I won't win much at those odds but they must be the favourite so I'll at least make a bit.  So they put down a bet of $100 expecting a payout of $170 at odds of 1.70 (100 x 1.7)

BUT!  There is also a limit of how much a punter can place, which is known as the max bet.  This is actually what determines how much money Sportsbet will lose if that person wins, and so it's that which tells us who the ACTUAL favourite is.

So in this case the most you can put on the blonde category is $143.  If I bet $143 and a blonde wins, I get a payout of $243 (143 x 1.7).  Sportsbet would lose $243.  Sportsbet do not want to lose $243!!!  They want to lose as little as possible.

So lets now look at the black category.  The odds are a hefty 7.50, making it look like there's no way a black haired girl will win, because a bet of $100 would give a payout of $750 (100 x 7.5) and as we know Sportsbet do not like to lose money.

BUT what's this? The max bet for black is only $15!  I can't place a bet of $100, let alone $143.  The most Sporstbet will let me bet on black is $15.  So the maximum payout I will get, the most anyone could pry from Sportsbet's clammy fingers, is $112.50.  

That's the lowest payout figure of all hair colours and hence the most likely to be the hair colour of the winner.  The same thing can be applied to the home state (and age group) to get a probable profile of the F1 - in this case black hair from NSW/WA.

Sportsbet only pay out on a winner, so they want to hide/conceal the winner and encourage/trick people into betting on one of the losing categories.  The odds for anyone other than F1 are designed to attract bets - it's psychological gameplay.

They could put a girl at 10000 to 1, but no one would bet because it's obvious Sportsbet wouldn't risk losing that much money.  So instead they make the odds look realistic in relation to each episode, to entice people to bet on what they just watched.

For example on Matty's season, after ep 1 when Lisa looked like a shoo-in, she had very short odds, and punters rushed to place bets on "before it was too late".  But Sportsbet knew all along that Laura would win, so she always had the lowest max loss.

Then there's another factor to the betting which is the fact that punters putting bets on will drive the odds down on a contestant.  So watching the changing odds can reveal who the public thinks will win each episode.  It's all quite fascinating!

ETA:  @Dirty Street Pie sorry one more question - are we still looking at a 31-33 yo F1 or did the max bets change there too?
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