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Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by olive54321 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:20 am

Well that was entertaining. Thanks for bringing all that information over @Bobette. With the careful wording of the "spoiler" that the winner is the one whose name starts with C, I wouldn't be surprised if the winner's name did start with C but not Chelsea. If Feathers or Marshmallow's name begins with C then they're F1 for sure 😆.

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Post by GuardianAngel on Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:11 pm

Just a reminder, as it's stated in the rules. If a member wants to send a PM to someone, just do it. Do not ask on the open forum. It's not fair to the others who will not receive a PM or won't ask for one since it's against the rules to ask on the open forum to be sent a pm. If there is information that you want to share, share it, or don't share it at all. The threads are titled spoiler threads, therefore anything can be shared if it's considered a spoiler. Do not post on the open forum playing games with information you might have.

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Post by Bobette on Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:59 am

So 24 hours on and no other other media outlet has taken Sportsbet's bait, while Mamamia are patting themselves on the back for their "investigative journalism" which consisted of... receiving (and believing) an email.

 

Source

Give the girl a Walkley.

Anyhoo, let's just take a moment now to reminisce about how Sportsbet mocked their customers when Nick chose no one.  And then refunded all bets, in a suspiciously prompt manner (i.e., they knew it was coming, IMO).

 


Source
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Post by Sundy on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:24 am

So late to the game but I’m here. I can’t seem to see the betting odds on Sportsbet???? I’ve been following the odds for Masterchef and there has been a firm favourite since the first few episodes. Let’s see if it works out. Now who are we watching, what are we thinking???
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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:41 am

welcomeback @Sundy ! Just went to check on the odds, and there is nothing there. If you click on the Bachelor it just defaults back to the menu page. Maybe betting has been suspended until all the girls are released? 

We were thinking that none of the currently released girls are F1 as the max losses to Sportsbet were too high, then Rich from Sportsbet came in and mansplained to us that we were misinterpreting the data, and PM’d that the winners name starts with C. Rich from Sportsbet also emailed Mamamia and implied that Chelsie won, which either means that Sportsbet has just spoiled the whole season, and Chelsie wins, or Sportsbet is lying, and the F1 is someone who hasn’t been released yet.
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Post by Bobette on Sat Jul 13, 2019 3:57 am

@Dirty Street Pie @Sundy my theory is that Sportsbet ballsed up by releasing the odds for the first five girls too early so sent their "mischief managers" out to generate some smokescreens and/or create a betting frenzy on Chelsea.

Having the odds suddenly disappear now makes me think this even more.  The mischief couldn't be effectively managed so they shut the whole thing down.  It will be interesting to see if Chelsea is still the favourite when ALL names are released.

Think of the backlash they'll get if F1 isn't one of the five.  Not having the winner as an option will make them look even MORE dodgy and greedy than when "picks no one" wasn't an option for Nick; and look how pissed off people were about that.

The "leak" to Mamamia implied the winner was Chelsea but was worded such that if she doesn't win they can say "she was just the favourite at the time" - just like they said Britt was the favourite, when IMO they knew damn well there was no winner.  

IMO it's telling no other media outlets have picked up the Chelsea Wins story - not even DM and we know how desperate they are for material.  IMO Sportsbet spun everyone the same BS but Mamamia are the only ones who fell for it.
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Post by Sundy on Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:45 am

Dm has a story I think
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Post by Bobette on Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:03 am

@Sundy wrote:Dm has a story I think

 Oh yeah.   cantstopl Two days late though and they word it such that they're just quoting Mamamia and the Herald, not buying into the spoiler themselves.

@Sundy, have you ever seen an actual F1 get SO MUCH promotion pre-show?  Not just articles but official TPTB promos, IG posts, tweets etc?  Chelsea just seems like a red herring to me.  

With Laura there were plenty of rumours/articles about her being the winner but she was still hidden on the actual show and in preshow TPTB media - no tweets and only briefly in the promo.  

ETA:  None of the journalists have even put their name to that DM article - it just says "Daily Mail Reporter".  Suggests they're not overly confident IMO.
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Post by olive54321 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 10:44 am

I'm of two minds on this because I just remembered that the DM quoted someone in production saying "they want to give the viewers a real love story" to redeem themselves after honey badger.

1) they could be featuring Chelsie so much because they want people to be acquainted with the F1 and fall in love with her, and by extension, their love story. But the early release of the sportsbet odds make me question that.

2) they want to make the F1 (not the five released) super obvious on the show because they want to show viewers the love story. So, they want to make all their money in the early days before it becomes very obvious who wins.

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Post by Bobette on Sat Jul 13, 2019 8:59 pm

@olive54321 wrote:I'm of two minds on this because I just remembered that the DM quoted someone in production saying "they want to give the viewers a real love story" to redeem themselves after honey badger.

1) they could be featuring Chelsie so much because they want people to be acquainted with the F1 and fall in love with her, and by extension, their love story. But the early release of the sportsbet odds make me question that.

2) they want to make the F1 (not the five released) super obvious on the show because they want to show viewers the love story. So, they want to make all their money in the early days before it becomes very obvious who wins.

Going by Sportsbet's track history, and the fact that Will Byrne, chief Mischief Manager, includes on his list of superpowers the ability to "execute newsjacking events" and "maximise betting opportunism" I'm going to choose option 2.

If Chelsea is F1, Rich Hummerston is now on record telling Mamamia he got the information from "dodgy producers". How can that possibly be any more legal than match fixing or insider trading?  Maybe that's why the odds have suddenly disappeared.

I can't imagine TPTB were happy about Rich naming them as a source.  I suspected after the court injunction during Matty's season they teamed up (if you can't beat them, join them) but for Sportsbet to deliberately lose money just seems so unlikely to me.

While I realise the purpose of entertainment betting is to lure people in, steal their money, and get people hooked on gambling, I still can't see them happily giving away the winner, unless they're just writing it off as a convoluted advertising campaign.

And hey if it works, Sportsbet could diversify and start handing out cigarettes to teenagers or open a chain of bottle shops next to AA meeting halls.  Should play right into their wheelhouse as a wholesome, totally legit, admirable organisation.
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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:13 pm

All this @Bobette :yes:

And I was thinking, when Rich was schooling us laugh out loud he was making a big deal about how Bach is such a small betting market compared to others, and I don't disagree with that, and that they've made bigger losses on things like the federal election and the State of Origin. The difference to those things is that they didn't know the outcome. For this, they do, and I can't see them being willing to make a loss on something that they know is a sure thing.
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Post by olive54321 on Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:14 pm

@Bobette something else that could be in favor of option 2 is that they have really ramped up the promotion of the show but still have yet to announce a premiere date. I have to imagine it will premiere after Survivor premiere week, so perhaps the last week of July or first week of August?

They announced Matty's premiere date on July 15th, but his airdate was July 26. Does anybody else feel that they have done quite a bit of promo already even though the airdate is likely July 31 or the date week that?

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