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Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by Idlemess on Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:08 am

What happens if Chelsea’s odds slips and say she drops to 4th? Just wondering here how this betting stuff works.


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Post by Bobette on Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:10 am

@Idlemess wrote:What happens if Chelsea’s odds slips and say she drops to 4th? Just wondering here how this betting stuff works.

They won't IMO @Idlemess.  Sportsbet wouldn't risk losing money by having her at the shortest odds/lowest max payout unless they were certain she's F1.  The F2 down will shift and change but Chelsea will stay at the top all season IMO.

That said I'd love it if one year someone pulled off a massive foiler and fed Sportsbet the wrong info and they lost big, but there are so many people that know the outcome I still think they'd work it out from an alternative source pretty quick.
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Post by Idlemess on Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:28 am

Are there any pay outs from betting on final positions ei., F3 Abbie? Oh, please remind me, is it the F3 or F2 that goes to the FD only? I remember on Richie’s season, the F3 being out of the country.


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Post by Bobette on Sun Aug 04, 2019 9:53 am

@Idlemess wrote:Are there any pay outs from betting on final positions ei., F3 Abbie? Oh, please remind me, is it the F3 or F2 that goes to the FD only? I remember on Richie’s season, the F3 being out of the country.

Actually that's an excellent point @Idlemess!  Sportsbet and Ladbrokes only pay out on a winner but TAB do indeed have "place" odds and they say "Each way pays 1-2-3".  

And according to Wikipedia:

An each-way bet is a wager offered by bookmakers consisting of two separate bets: a win bet and a place bet. For the win part of the bet to give a return, the selection must win, or finish first, in the event. For the place part of the bet to give a return, the selection must either win or finish in one of the predetermined places for the event, such as first place or second place. The odds paid on the place part of the bet are usually a fraction (commonly ​1⁄2, ​1⁄3, ​1⁄4 or ​1⁄5) of the win odds. The trade-off being that one has a greater chance of making one's bet in trade for getting less payoff for doing so. 

Source

If I'm reading that right, it looks like Ladbrokes have potentially gone two better than Sportsbet and spoiled Chelsea F1 Abbie F2 and Helena F3 here?  question

There's a clear gap between the top three place place amounts and then identical odds/place figures from Elly down, which makes sense if F4 won't count? 

If I'm interpreting things correctly this is valuable info!  Next season we can avoid Sportsbet altogether and get all Top 3 in order from TAB on night one.  laugh out loud

@Sundy @Dirty Street Pie @butterflylove @Bachbee you've all been following the betting this season - what do you think?

Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 18 7FDmg8i

Source: https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Entertainment/competitions/The%20Bachelor
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Post by Sundy on Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:30 pm

@Bobette that is really interesting. Are we sure they place second and third? We should bookmark this for the finale and see what happens. In regards to Abbie and Helena being second and third I think they can be interchanged in the end as how they work out a place bet is the same regardless of second and third placing. That said it does point to Abbie being F2. I’m going to go check it out and see if there are max bets
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Post by Bobette on Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:03 pm

@Sundy wrote:@Bobette that is really interesting. Are we sure they place second and third?  We should bookmark this for the finale and see what happens. In regards to Abbie and Helena being second and third I think they can be interchanged in the end as how they work out a place bet is the same regardless of second and third placing. That said it does point to Abbie being F2. I’m going to go check it out and see if there are max bets

Thank you @Sundy thumbsup

Yes I think they could definitely be second and third and IMO you're right about the each way being interchangeable.  I could see either as F2 at this point - Helena is being backgrounded in the episodes but featured in the promo and seems to get the most dates, while Abbie is getting a fun/physical edit and would IMO be a better contrast than Helena v Chelsea in the finale.

It also fits with Rachael's follow list which had them in this order (from most recent add to oldest):

Helena
Abbie
Emma

... and with the yellow shirt pic which is a good match for Abbie (really want a straight hair pic of her to compare!)

The most interesting thing to me is the tight numbers between the place figures for Helena and Abbie and then daylight till Elly and the other girls, who have identical figures.  I take than to mean if anyone other than Abbie and Helena are F2/F3, TAB would stand to lose a lot of money?  Which I can't see happening.  So this could be much more useful info that Sportsbet.

Let us know what you find out about the max bets!
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Post by butterflylove on Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:26 am

@Bobette, good pick up with TAB's odds, and especially for top 3. Also looks like in the last 24 hours, Abbie ($2.75 > $4.50) and Helena ($4.00 > $6.00) have blown out, which slightly closes the gap between 3rd and 4th; but their odds have tightened to place.

To "place" means (lemme pull out that dusty piece of childhood horse racing knowledge) they'll pay you out if your Bachelorette/horse comes in 1st or 2nd. So you have that extra security, and that's why "place" odds are much less than winning odds.

But either way, it's not even worth your money to bet on Chelsie at this stage. Her odds are so low, you're not making anything off of her.
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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:41 am

Thank you @butterflylove.  yes   Would you agree, looking at the place odds and particular the huge hap between 3rd and 4th, that Chelsea, Abbie and Helena are Top 3?  I can't see it making sense any other way, since they'd lose too much money, yes?
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Post by butterflylove on Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:07 pm

@Bobette wrote:Thank you @butterflylove.  yes   Would you agree, looking at the place odds and particular the huge hap between 3rd and 4th, that Chelsea, Abbie and Helena are Top 3?  I can't see it making sense any other way, since they'd lose too much money, yes?

I definitely think that that's out set top 3. They're too short of odds compared to everyone else not to be. The only way I see something dramatic happening is a dark horse, but that dark horse would have to be F2 to even place/profit.
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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 05, 2019 6:46 pm

Thanks @butterflylove, I agree Top 3 for sure IMO and my favourite part is that now we don't need stinky old Sportsbet Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 18 2498057887
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Post by Bobette on Tue Aug 06, 2019 6:16 am

TAB have pulled the page for Bach betting.  Might just be temporary but worth noting...

https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Entertainment/competitions/The%20Bachelor

ETA:  It's back Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 18 3806527698

Chelsea's place odds are ridiculous - at 1.02 with fees you'd end up owing them money!

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Post by sprout on Wed Aug 07, 2019 9:19 pm

Not surprising that Elly has moved up after last nights episode! In comparison, Ladbroke has Chelsie at 1.33 and Elly at 3.00.

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