Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Can't help but notice, taking max bets out of the equation, the actual odds above still correctly identified the winners in previous seasons.

So... if we take things a step back and remove max bets from the equation, and just go with straight up lowest odds, we would have:

Age: 29 to 30
Hair: Blonde
Homestate: Victoria


You know who that sounds like?  Chelsea.

mic drop

Thanks @Bobette! I guess the take home from that is that small differences matter, so we’re still on the black hair train. And that Chelsie will be the F2 who looks like an F1.

I think Sportsbet used to play straight with the odds up until part way through Matty’s season, then the DM started reporting on it, as they couldn’t do straight spoiling anymore, and that’s when the max bet started to be a thing, and they started trying to disguise it.

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Thanks @Bobette! I guess the take home from that is that small differences matter, so we’re still on the black hair train. And that Chelsie will be the F2 who looks like an F1.

I think Sportsbet used to play straight with the odds up until part way through Matty’s season, then the DM started reporting on it, as they couldn’t do straight spoiling anymore, and that’s when the max bet started to be a thing, and they started trying to disguise it.

sorry I'm confused. Wouldn't that mean that we should possibly be going with straight up lowest odds instead of max bet since we don't have any women sleuthed that could fit Sportsbet's max loss categories? I know there is still Feathers but her prospects as F1 are getting dimmer as she is not getting featured at all so far.

olive54321 wrote:

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Thanks @Bobette! I guess the take home from that is that small differences matter, so we’re still on the black hair train. And that Chelsie will be the F2 who looks like an F1.

I think Sportsbet used to play straight with the odds up until part way through Matty’s season, then the DM started reporting on it, as they couldn’t do straight spoiling anymore, and that’s when the max bet started to be a thing, and they started trying to disguise it.

sorry I'm confused. Wouldn't that mean that we should possibly be going with straight up lowest odds instead of max bet since we don't have any women sleuthed that could fit Sportsbet's max loss categories? I know there is still Feathers but her prospects as F1 are getting dimmer as she is not getting featured at all so far.

So basically the screen caps etc I brought over from the other seasons showed that previously the favourites with the shortest odds also had the lowest max loss figure; so they predicted the "same" winner, if you know what I mean.  

This season the max loss is predicting black hair, but the shortest odds are for blonde.  So it's different to past seasons, and it will be interesting to see which prediction is accurate, since that will inform our sleuthing in future seasons.

With a black haired winner looking increasingly unfeasible, the lowest odds might be more trustworthy, and they point to Chelsea IMO.  The individual odds will put everything into perspective and a clear winner will emerge then IMO.  

Roll on night 1!

Have to go to work, so just posting a quick snap of the odds. All previous categories are gone, and we have individual odds for currently released girls. Chelsie has the lowest odds, but with max bets factored in, she and Abbie are even.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2019-4291412


ETA Accidentally cropped Chelsies odds off of the screenshot, have just looked them up again, and she is $3, with s max bet of $50, and the max loss is $100, which is the same as Abbie. Will do them properly tonight when I get home.

Bobette wrote:

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Have to go to work, so just posting a quick snap of the odds. All previous categories are gone, and we have individual odds for currently released girls. Chelsie has the lowest odds, but with max bets factored in, she and Abbie are even.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2019-4291412


ETA Accidentally cropped Chelsies odds off of the screenshot, have just looked them up again, and she is $3, with s max bet of $50, and the max loss is $100, which is the same as Abbie. Will do them properly tonight when I get home.

OMG individual odds already?  But they haven't even released all the names!!! Something is UP people.  This has never happened before.  

F1 has probably not yet been made public IMO and they're hoping to snag some early big bets before ALL names are released.  SO CRAFTY!

Sportsbet releasing these individual odds so early, plus having them ALL featured so heavily pre-show in one form or another, really makes me think none of the girls can be F1.

Unless they have thrown all rule books out the window and decided to serve F1 up to us on a platter, and Sportsbet don't mind losing a little bit of money.  Which I'm sure is the case.  

REALLY want to find Feathers now more than ever!

ETA: To put things into perspective for members who haven't sleuthed an AU season before, THIS is what an F1's odds usually look like when individual names are released, none of this 3:00 with $50 max loss business!



Source

Sportsbet aren't in the habit giving out free $50 notes, I can tell you that.

Curioser and curioser! Thanks for bringing the bets over, @Dirty Street Pie ! Thanks for explaining @Bobette !

Edit: Feathers reminds me of F1 on US Bachelor, where there is a glimpse of her but it's hard to pin down her actual identity. Ie. sleuthing Vanessa on Nick's season

olive54321 wrote:Curioser and curioser! Thanks for bringing the bets over, @Dirty Street Pie ! Thanks for explaining @Bobette !

Edit: Feathers reminds me of F1 on US Bachelor, where there is a glimpse of her but it's hard to pin down her actual identity. Ie. sleuthing Vanessa on Nick's season

Yes - we STILL haven't got a picture of her face, which is strange in itself considering she looks like a very pretty girl and wore such a fancy outfit.  I think F1 is still in their back pocket, but they will give us SOME kind of glimpse IMO.

I just can't believe they'd just lay all their cards on the table so early considering only one F1 or F2 (Alex) got a pre-show tweet/IG pic in the past 3 seasons.  Statistically, girls tweeted pre-show are usually F3 to F5 or below.

@Bobette Yes, and add that onto them releasing individual odds already...it just further affirms that F1 is probably not in this batch that's just been released.

olive54321 wrote:@Bobette Yes, and add that onto them releasing individual odds already...it just further affirms that F1 is probably not in this batch that's just been released.

My thoughts exactly.  They're just reeling in free money.  :fishing:

You see, this is why I think TPTB and Sportsbet are in cahoots - Thanks to all the pre-show publicity, SB are going to get so many bets on these girls (esp Chelsea IMO) and if the winner isn't even among them, they literally cannot lose!

They've got their "others may be added" disclaimer, so they're not doing anything illegal.  Cheeky, cheeky buggers.



Source

@Bobette After reading Brooks's instagram about how anal the producers were about her social media. If Feathers is F1, I bet they had her deactivate her account, so all those samba dancing instagram follower lists we trawled through were probably for naught!

Lots of people on Instagram saying Chelsea is "the clear winner".

Coincidentally, here is a live shot from Sportsbet's head office:

via GIPHY