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Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - NO Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by GuardianAngel on Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:49 am

@Bobette wrote:
@ThankMeLater wrote:Correct me if I am wrong here bc this odds business is quite confusing laugh out loud So the new odds are saying that the f1 is definitely not a blonde but rather one who has black hair and is from NSW?

@ThankMeLater, essentially, yes, however it's not so much the odds as the full max loss calculation and the psychology behind it.  

Bach sleuthing has led me to discover that bookies are some of the most intelligent, calculating, diabolically sharp minds in our society.  They employ all kinds of mind games to entice people to give them money and they do it very successfully.  

When it comes to Bach, they IMO have insiders feeding them information.  It might be the paps, a crew member, maybe even TPTB themselves, but they always know who wins, and they fix the numbers so the winner will lose them the least money.

So there's two parts to the calculation: the odds and the max bets.  At first glance the current odds make it look like the most likely winner will be a blonde from Vic, since those are the criteria with the shortest odds.  The mind games have commenced.

Anyone casually following the pre-show media would have seen a few blondes in the mix, and have read that Matt is from Vic, so this would seem to make sense (and will probably seem even more likely when the girls are introduced on night one).

So they might think OK I'll throw down a bet on the blonde category.  I won't win much at those odds but they must be the favourite so I'll at least make a bit.  So they put down a bet of $100 expecting a payout of $170 at odds of 1.70 (100 x 1.7)

BUT!  There is also a limit of how much a punter can place, which is known as the max bet.  This is actually what determines how much money Sportsbet will lose if that person wins, and so it's that which tells us who the ACTUAL favourite is.

So in this case the most you can put on the blonde category is $143.  If I bet $143 and a blonde wins, I get a payout of $243 (143 x 1.7).  Sportsbet would lose $243.  Sportsbet do not want to lose $243!!!  They want to lose as little as possible.

So lets now look at the black category.  The odds are a hefty 7.50, making it look like there's no way a black haired girl will win, because a bet of $100 would give a payout of $750 (100 x 7.5) and as we know Sportsbet do not like to lose money.

BUT what's this? The max bet for black is only $15!  I can't place a bet of $100, let alone $143.  The most Sporstbet will let me bet on black is $15.  So the maximum payout I will get, the most anyone could pry from Sportsbet's clammy fingers, is $112.50.  

That's the lowest payout figure of all hair colours and hence the most likely to be the hair colour of the winner.  The same thing can be applied to the home state (and age group) to get a probable profile of the F1 - in this case black hair from NSW/WA.

Sportsbet only pay out on a winner, so they want to hide/conceal the winner and encourage/trick people into betting on one of the losing categories.  The odds for anyone other than F1 are designed to attract bets - it's psychological gameplay.

They could put a girl at 10000 to 1, but no one would bet because it's obvious Sportsbet wouldn't risk losing that much money.  So instead they make the odds look realistic in relation to each episode, to entice people to bet on what they just watched.

For example on Matty's season, after ep 1 when Lisa looked like a shoo-in, she had very short odds, and punters rushed to place bets on "before it was too late".  But Sportsbet knew all along that Laura would win, so she always had the lowest max loss.

Then there's another factor to the betting which is the fact that punters putting bets on will drive the odds down on a contestant.  So watching the changing odds can reveal who the public thinks will win each episode.  It's all quite fascinating!

ETA:  @Dirty Street Pie sorry one more question - are we still looking at a 31-33 yo F1 or did the max bets change there too?


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Post by Bobette on Sun Jun 23, 2019 3:33 am

07/03 (start of filming):

@Bobette wrote:Sportsbet not giving much away but they know who the contestants are IMO.

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08/03:
@Sundy wrote:Max bets has all odds even at the moment

15/03:
@Sundy wrote:Betting odds are all still even

05/05 (around Top 4/HTD stage):

@Bobette wrote:

...dramatic change for the lower age bracket.   Suspect

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30/05:
@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Because I love all of the lovely sleuthers here, I’ve logged onto Sportsbet and complied all of the odds, max bets and winnings...

25 or less.  3.50    40 max bet.    $140 max win
26-28.        3.30     43.                $141.90
29-30.        3.00.    50.                $150
31-33.        5.50.    22.                $121

Blonde.       2.00.    100 max bet   $200 max win
Brunette.     3.         50.               $150
Red.            6.         20.               $120
Black.          7.50.    15.               $112.50

NSW.           2.50.     67 max bet.  $167.50 max win
Vic.             4.          33.               $132
WA.             4.50.     29.               $130.50
QLD.            6.          20.              $120
SA.              12.        20.              $240

So, if a 31-33 year old with black hair from Queensland walks in on night 1, I’ll be calling forks rotfl

22/06:
@Bobette wrote:CHANGES.  @Dirty Street Pie could you be a doll and check max bets for black vs blonde and VIC vs QLD?  Looks like they might be trying to obscure the winner even further with the higher odds for black/QLD.  TYIA.  :frommeto  

Noteworthy: Chelsea is a blonde from Melbourne.  Trying to make the F2 look like F1 perhaps?  question

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@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Your wish is my command @Bobette, and there has definitely been some movement :

                             Max bet                  Max winnings

Blonde                   143                         243
Black.                    15.                          112.50
Brunette.               43.                          141.90
Red.                      20.                          120

Vic.                      50.                           100
Qld.                     20.                           130
NSW.                   25.                           75
WA.                     20.                           80
SA.                     20.                           240

Our black haired Queenslander is looking shaky, with NSW and WA now having the best odds.

...

Black hair is the only constant at the moment, will be interesting to see how many have black hair when contestants are announced.

Clearly Sportsbet are no dummies.  Look at that MASSIVE max bet for blondes.  IMO they're confident the winner isn't blonde, and are banking on the fact that people will think she is.

All suggests to me that either F2 or an early favourite will be blonde and that F1 will definitely not be .   :yes:

@Dirty Street Pie wrote: I didn’t do the age odds, but have had a quick look now, and 31-33 is still the favourite with a max bet of $22 and max loss of $121, with the other age ranges having a max loss in the $140-$150 ballpark. 

Summary: F1 according to Sportsbet as at 23/06:

- Black hair
- From NSW or WA
- Age 31 to 33
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Post by Bobette on Sun Jul 07, 2019 9:07 am

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Have just crunched the numbers again (properly this time laugh out loud ), and the max losses for all categories are very tight, I think we'll get a better picture once the girls are all released:

                        Max bet.     Max Win.       Max loss

25 or less.            40.             140.             100
26-28.                  43.            141.90.          98.90
29-30.                  50.            150.               100
31-33.                  22.            121.               99

Blonde.                 143.          243.10.          100.10
Brunette.              43.            141.90.          98.90
Red.                     20.            120.               100
Black.                  15.             112.50.          97.50

Vic.                      50.             100.              50
NSW.                    25.             75.               50

WA.                      20.             80.               60
Qld.                      20.             130.             110

So if we're going purely on the odds, the winner is now 26-28, with black hair, from either NSW or Victoria. But those differences are so small, and the difference in the max losses for pretty much everything are so small that I'm inclined to think it doesn't mean anything yet. 

The picture will become clearer soon, but I'm not counting anyone off the table yet based on Sportsbet.
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Post by Bobette on Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:00 pm

@Bobette wrote:
@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Have to go to work, so just posting a quick snap of the odds. All previous categories are gone, and we have individual odds for currently released girls. Chelsie has the lowest odds, but with max bets factored in, she and Abbie are even.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2019-4291412

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ETA Accidentally cropped Chelsies odds off of the screenshot, have just looked them up again, and she is $3, with s max bet of $50, and the max loss is $100, which is the same as Abbie. Will do them properly tonight when I get home.

OMG individual odds already?  But they haven't even released all the names!!! Something is UP people.  This has never happened before.  

F1 has probably not yet been made public IMO and they're hoping to snag some early big bets before ALL names are released.  SO CRAFTY!
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Post by Bobette on Tue Jul 09, 2019 11:00 pm

@Bobette wrote:To put things into perspective for members who haven't sleuthed an AU season before, THIS is what an F1's odds usually look like when individual names are released, none of this 3:00 with $50 max loss business!  

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Sportsbet aren't in the habit giving out free $50 notes, I can tell you that.  Suspect  Suspect  Suspect

@Bobette wrote:
@olive54321 wrote:@Bobette Yes, and add that onto them releasing individual odds already...it just further affirms that F1 is probably not in this batch that's just been released.

My thoughts exactly.  They're just reeling in free money.  :fishing

You see, this is why I think TPTB and Sportsbet are in cahoots - Thanks to all the pre-show publicity, SB are going to get so many bets on these girls (esp Chelsea IMO) and if the winner isn't even among them, they literally cannot lose!

They've got their "others may be added" disclaimer, so they're not doing anything illegal.  Cheeky, cheeky buggers.  

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