Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers* #2

Sundy wrote:That little fish has been used in a IG post before. What does it mean

Well it could be seen as plenty more fish in the sea, only I saw it on lisas parting ig aswell, Elise's good friend.
https://www.instagram.com/p/BYk16XClMaV/

Just see a lot of nuances with Elise that leads me to think he likes her. The first glimpse I had was when they were standing by the lemonade stand. He pulled her in front of him for the hug. This was the first overt thing I saw from Matty. Saw a huge contrast with Laura vs Elise when clowning around. On Laura's date when he wanted "to put paint(?) on her face she was like do not do.. I mean it" vs wrestling Elise to the ground. The other girls say that Laura is funny but I'm not seeing it right now.

@Ash as requested! Sportsbet odds after episode 13. Although the odds are changing, Sportsbet are definitely closing ranks, and protecting themselves now. Elise and Tara have been sitting on a max loss of ~$50 now for the past week or so (despite fluctuating odds). Laura has also reached her highest "max loss" value all season at $42 (except for episode 1). To me it looks like Sportsbet are covering all bases now as betting ramps up closer to FRC


Source: Sportsbet

Max bet and calculated max loss for sportsbet
Laura max bet $100 = max loss $42
Elise max bet $22 = max loss $50.60
Tara max bet $14 = max loss $50.40
Flo max bet $10 = max loss $200

@Ash....you made a post in the F1-F4 No Discussion thread.........no one has posted after you so you can delete the post and move to this discussion thread here...thanks

SugarAndSpice wrote:@Ash as requested! Sportsbet odds after episode 13. Although the odds are changing, Sportsbet are definitely closing ranks, and protecting themselves now. Elise and Tara have been sitting on a max loss of ~$50 now for the past week or so (despite fluctuating odds). Laura has also reached her highest "max loss" value all season at $42 (except for episode 1). To me it looks like Sportsbet are covering all bases now as betting ramps up closer to FRC


Source: Sportsbet

Max bet and calculated max loss for sportsbet
Laura max bet $100 = max loss $42
Elise max bet $22 = max loss $50.60
Tara max bet $14 = max loss $50.40
Flo max bet $10 = max loss $200

Thank you @sugarandspice I requested them also

mercieme wrote:

Justme wrote:Then I see something like this and think we'll maybe Elise is f1.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BYtdEEkh2tj/

Cobie picked a pic of her with Elise, makes comment about legends and has a fish emoji.

@Justme....@natik and I were just discussing that and she actually wanted me to post it here but glad someone else saw the same thing....I thought it was a rather cryptic post from Cobie...jmo.

Cobie's Instagram post has cemented my belief Elise is F1. I have been on the Elise Train from the beginning. I saw a comfortable, genuine connection in the DM photos of their hockey date and couldn't wait to see them together. Of course I had no idea she would be edited to be MIA. I have thought a lot about this and believe Matty genuinely did not notice her. He has said as much himself and I believe he is telling the truth.

@SugarAndSpice i have no idea about sportsbet, very much appreciate all you do with it though! question has Laura's odds just gone up??????is that normal for a favourite all season to have odds go up instead of down???

I still think it's Tara. long red carpet chat, shows her awkwardness forgetting which side the tattoo was on, then calling him mate. And u actually see and remember her at the CP- her personality, caring side even is evident from then bringing popcorn for the crying Jen, Leah just ignoring her wen she said hello, she gets down to earth with her shoes off for her first chat with MJ..
what is the most memorable abt Elise or Laura from the first CP?
Just that Laura was left sitting there like a 3rd wheel when Elora came in with her fire.. and if she really played along with her feelings on the board.. and being cast... maybe.. potentially because she looked so similar to Georgia, then how can she win?
As for the dark horse theory is ridiculous! How can they say watch out for the dark horse like 100 times and then give us anything else as F1!
So if Elise isn't the real dark horse who is the dark horse!!! It can only be Flo?

LeapofFaith wrote:@SugarAndSpice i have no idea about sportsbet, very much appreciate all you do with it though! question has Laura's odds just gone up??????is that normal for a favourite all season to have odds go up instead of down???

@LeapofFaith Laura's odds have indeed decreased in the past week (as in gone from 1.33 to 1.42). I think the odds reflect the public betting. In the past week or so there has been a push for Elise on the TV show, and that is then reflected by the public placing more bets on Elise and less on Laura. My stats from Georgia Love's seasons arent complete, but a fluctuation in odds at this point in time is normal. Interestingly, by the end of the Georgia's season, Matty and Lee's odds were different, but the max loss for sportsbet was equal. I suspect the same will happen this season when we get down to the F3 or F2.

As for ydays episode.. ofcos I am stubbornly biased but:
Yes! That date was totally romantic!
But he didn't choose to take Elise on it, she won it. And I found it uncomfortable to watch. He doesn't pull her close like with Flo, or maybe they are so nervous??

I'm 200% positive that the cooking date with Tara aka "great azz date" was totally ridiculous but! To to redo a shoot for that... it was obviously done for a laugh.. her hair in that shot matches her darker hair in the current upcoming episode. Could their first shoot..maybe have been too telling so they cut out the convo? Or too boring. The rest of the date, on the couch and bicycle riding where not redone.

SugarAndSpice wrote:

LeapofFaith wrote:@SugarAndSpice i have no idea about sportsbet, very much appreciate all you do with it though! question has Laura's odds just gone up??????is that normal for a favourite all season to have odds go up instead of down???

@LeapofFaith Laura's odds have indeed decreased in the past week (as in gone from 1.33 to 1.42). I think the odds reflect the public betting. In the past week or so there has been a push for Elise on the TV show, and that is then reflected by the public placing more bets on Elise and less on Laura. My stats from Georgia Love's seasons arent complete, but a fluctuation in odds at this point in time is normal. Interestingly, by the end of the Georgia's season, Matty and Lee's odds were different, but the max loss for sportsbet was equal. I suspect the same will happen this season when we get down to the F3 or F2.

Given the massive DM spoilers about the supposed weekend away are you surprised that Laura's odd haven't lowered further?

brownravens wrote:

SugarAndSpice wrote:

LeapofFaith wrote:@SugarAndSpice i have no idea about sportsbet, very much appreciate all you do with it though! question has Laura's odds just gone up??????is that normal for a favourite all season to have odds go up instead of down???

@LeapofFaith Laura's odds have indeed decreased in the past week (as in gone from 1.33 to 1.42). I think the odds reflect the public betting. In the past week or so there has been a push for Elise on the TV show, and that is then reflected by the public placing more bets on Elise and less on Laura. My stats from Georgia Love's seasons arent complete, but a fluctuation in odds at this point in time is normal. Interestingly, by the end of the Georgia's season, Matty and Lee's odds were different, but the max loss for sportsbet was equal. I suspect the same will happen this season when we get down to the F3 or F2.

Given the massive DM spoilers about the supposed weekend away are you surprised that Laura's odd haven't lowered further?

Just prior to the DM "spoiler" Laura's odds were $1.40, after the "spoiler" her odds were $1.33. So I think thats a decent change given the spoiler. I don't think Sportsbet will increase Laura's odds then too much below this mark (I would be surprised if Laura's odds hit $1.20). Laura's odds decreased back to $1.42 after the SQT Elise had with Matty last night. IMO thats a fairly expected change in odds