Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:OMG!!! Paging @Bobette


Stu now with lowest odds!!!


https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment

AAAARRRRGGGGHHHHH!!!!

Pass me that damn popcorn.  

@Bobette    popcorn for everyone!

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette    popcorn for everyone!

NO FORKS REQUIRED to eat popcorn!!!

can someone explain to me how betting works? and what are the implications of Stu having the lowest odds? Is it largely controlled by the betters or by Sportsbet?

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:@Bobette    popcorn for everyone!

NO FORKS REQUIRED to eat popcorn!!!

No forks needed at all!

So I guess....
Jarrod has his wine
Luke has his motivation quotes
Jimmy has his insta.single pics
Apollo has his magic tricks
and Stu has Sophie

I may need to borrow some of Jarrod's wine

With current sportbet odds from above:
Stu $2.00, max loss $10
Luke $3.50, max loss $62.50

Sportsbet seems more sure of Stu then they were of Laura in Matty's season

Wow wow wow.  Yep, that's a done deal then IMO.  How very interesting all round.  

It just occurred to me that the reason Daily Mail didn't have any evidence to back up their claims of Stu being F1 was that we didn't provide them with any.  With Laura, our members were giving them reverse park theories and SM evidence left right and centre.  

Oh well, at least now they've got the Sportsbet figures to base a story on.  

joshfan wrote:can someone explain to me how betting works? and what are the implications of Stu having the lowest odds? Is it largely controlled by the betters or by Sportsbet?

@joshfan in a nutshell - the odds are set by Sportsbet, but are driven by public betting (the more bets the lower the odds get, to a certain point). On top of that, Sportsbet set a "maximum bet" amount on each of the contestants (the maximum bet they will accept on that contestant, at those odds). Using this value, we can calculate how much money Sportsbet would "lose" if that contestant were to win. It follows that the contestant with the cheapest loss for Sportsbet is the contestant who Sportsbet believes will win.

Hope that helps

AllAboutLove wrote:I'd laugh if Stu the intruder is F1 and so the odds don't matter for the other guys
 
Based on Sportsbet's earlier odds (brown hair, NSW, older than 40) the only contestant who matches that description is Stu 

I posted this back before the season aired.... yeah I am the one laughing now  

But seriously though, I posted it before but it makes sooo much sense pre-season sleuthing-wise if Stu is F1 (especially given Luke's SM/traveling and his Ep1 edit of CP chat not even shown - which ALL past F1s had shown).

So if Stu does indeed end up F1 then for sure Sportsbet knew this imo given that the only F1 potential contestant who fit their description for odds fav pre-season (brown hair, NSW, 40+) is Stu 

And now Stu is Sportsbet odds favorite and lowest max loss too.... so to me that ties into the pre-season sleuthing especially for doubt regarding Luke (yay for sleuthing if so  )


Seems like Stu may be the one who came with his own forks #stickaforkinit?

SugarAndSpice wrote:

joshfan wrote:can someone explain to me how betting works? and what are the implications of Stu having the lowest odds? Is it largely controlled by the betters or by Sportsbet?

@joshfan in a nutshell - the odds are set by Sportsbet, but are driven by public betting (the more bets the lower the odds get, to a certain point). On top of that, Sportsbet set a "maximum bet" amount on each of the contestants (the maximum bet they will accept on that contestant, at those odds). Using this value, we can calculate how much money Sportsbet would "lose" if that contestant were to win. It follows that the contestant with the cheapest loss for Sportsbet is the contestant who Sportsbet believes will win.

Hope that helps

thank you that helps. does that mean it's very certain stu is F1? I remember during Richie's season, Nikki had the lowest odds right until the point when the 'suitcase' incident happened and it became Alex.

Showerthought: I wonder what effect an intruder winning will have on betting in the future?

If Stu is F1, people are going to be very wary of betting early for all subsequent seasons IMO.  Sportsbet may take far fewer bets in the weeks before intruders arrive.  And if so, I wonder if they will have to offer better odds to entice people to place wagers early?  

Could be profitable for any sleuthers who work out the winner pre-season and bet on night 1!

Bobette wrote:Wow wow wow.  Yep, that's a done deal then IMO.  How very interesting all round.  

It just occurred to me that the reason Daily Mail didn't have any evidence to back up their claims of Stu being F1 was that we didn't provide them with any.  With Laura, our members were giving them reverse park theories and SM evidence left right and centre.  

Oh well, at least now they've got the Sportsbet figures to base a story on.  

@Bobette... you may have hit on something here already... Stu's public IG account which we posted about but what was NOT posting about was Stu saying "he wishes" Soph was his gf and you posed how you thought that was odd for them not to write about that if Stu is not F1. Sooo.... if Stu is F1 then it could be that what they choose NOT to write about is a clue as much as what evidence they choose to write about... 

I still go back to Sportsbets FIRST odds favorites before the season even aired. For Matty's season, hair color, where the contestant lived etc, all pointed to Laura. For Sophie's season, hair color, where the contestant lived and contestants age ONLY pointed to Stu. So if Stu is F1, then Sportsbet knew this   jmo

AllAboutLove wrote:

Bobette wrote:Wow wow wow.  Yep, that's a done deal then IMO.  How very interesting all round.  

It just occurred to me that the reason Daily Mail didn't have any evidence to back up their claims of Stu being F1 was that we didn't provide them with any.  With Laura, our members were giving them reverse park theories and SM evidence left right and centre.  

Oh well, at least now they've got the Sportsbet figures to base a story on.  

@Bobette... you may have hit on something here already... Stu's public IG account which we posted about but what was NOT posting about was Stu saying "he wishes" Soph was his gf and you posed how you thought that was odd for them not to write about that if Stu is not F1. Sooo.... if Stu is F1 then it could be that what they choose NOT to write about is a clue as much as what evidence they choose to write about... 

I still go back to Sportsbets FIRST odds favorites before the season even aired. For Matty's season, hair color, where the contestant lived etc, all pointed to Laura. For Sophie's season, hair color, where the contestant lived and contestants age ONLY pointed to Stu. So if Stu is F1, then Sportsbet knew this   jmo

The only thing I'm wary on here is that the max losses were equal for the higher age categories (30 - 35, and 40 - 45). So it wasn't really definitive. Its possible Sportsbet didn't know the winner at that stage. However, the odds being lower for the 40 - 45 age category might indicate that certain members of the public knew (therefore driving the odds down).