Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

UGGHH.  

I agree, the evidence for Luke is hard to ignore.  Not only is he the clear favourite in regards to both odds and max bets, but the fact that Jarrod and James are flip flopping for second and third makes it even more likely than Luke is F1 IMO.  

If they knew Luke was going to leave (and perhaps left him at best odds to rake in some fast cash before his exit) they for sure IMO would have the real F1 as a very firm second place and probably closer in odds than 5.5 (current odds for Jarrod).

Switching back and forth between James and Jarrod IMO indicates it doesn't matter what their odds are - i.e., Sportsbet know they're not going to lose money on either of them being the winner so they don't care.

Pout time.  

Oh @Bobette he could be really lovely. Fingers crossed. It seems a match on too many fronts to ignore. Sportsbet are just confirming what you guys sleuthed.

Sundy wrote:Oh @Bobette he could be really lovely. Fingers crossed. It seems a match on too many fronts to ignore. Sportsbet are just confirming what you guys sleuthed.

Well Sophie seems happy so if Luke is F1 I will concede he must be doing something right.  I like Sophie and won't turn on her, no matter what poor decision she makes.  

I'm just disappointed because from all the preseason media I thought we'd be getting a normal bloke as F1 and when I look at Luke I don't see a bloke, I see a brand.  

And coming off the back of Toni May's season of The Bachelorette... I mean, Matty's season of The Bachelor, I've had my fill of that.  

I'd laugh if Stu the intruder is F1 and so the odds don't matter for the other guys
 

Based on Sportsbet's earlier odds (brown hair, NSW, older than 40) the only contestant who matches that description is Stu 

AllAboutLove wrote:I'd laugh if Stu the intruder is F1 and so the odds don't matter for the other guys
 

Based on Sportsbet's earlier odds (brown hair, NSW, older than 40) the only contestant who matches that description is Stu 

Stu seems like a bit of a tool IMO... and I'd still prefer him over Luke.  

@Bobette   I can see it coming down to both Stu and Luke (if he is indeed still on the show) would be too funny though... makes sense too the Intruder vs Ep3SD/frontrunner in the F2. Elise was basically edited to be an Intruder so maybe that's the show's format this year and they really stick to that script  

I will be interested to see what Sportsbet does once Stu is officially on the show and betting odds for him

Aunties_Love wrote:

SugarAndSpice wrote:You're welcome! I'm still tidying up a few charts for Matty's season, then I can get my spreadsheet ready for Wednesday!

You were doing charts to show here?  I have been working on them and all past seasons to post as well.

Sorry @Aunties_Love I only just saw your post from a few pages ago! If you wanted to check out the graphs/stats for Matty's season you can find them here in the archived thread

AllAboutLove wrote:I'd laugh if Stu the intruder is F1 and so the odds don't matter for the other guys
 

Based on Sportsbet's earlier odds (brown hair, NSW, older than 40) the only contestant who matches that description is Stu 

Even if Stu comes in at "worse" odds than Luke, IMO what will be significant is his placement in relation to Jarrod and James, AND whether his odds fluctuate in the same flip floppy way that J & J already have.

As mentioned upthread, if Sportsbet hypothetically knew Luke is going to walk out, IMO they would make sure the odds for the "real" F1 stayed solid with minimal loss to them.

So if Stu's odds come in second best after Luke (with a low max loss too) and doesn't shift around like James & Jarrod, then he'd be the most likely F1 if & when Luke walks IMO.

Having said that, I really can't see him winning because A/ Intruders have never won before and B/ He knew Sophie beforehand. If she wanted a relationship with him, she would have acted on it before now IMO.

Heads up folks! Sportsbet have now added the stock standard disclaimer, and max bets have all been bumped up for opening night!


Source Sportsbet

@SugarAndSpice, what's "All-in betting"?

Meanwhile, NOOOOOOOOO... Luke is still top spot! And Jarrod has DROPPED. No way IMO they would be doing that if Jarrod was F1 - far too risky. But Luke was pretty much a no show in episode 1. Not a single Tweet. What is happening?!



https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelorette

ps LOL at Ryan's odds.

Based on these odds it looks like Luke will be F1 despite him basically a no-show first episode? That's unheard of for this show. It also means they likely are NOT showing the love story if Luke is F1 without him even being given much airtime first episode? So bizarre!

Sam's odds going up make sense given that he received the DD rose and gets two SDs guaranteed so I can see audiences betting on him based on that

Apollo's odds also going up make sense given he was first out the limo (like Cam was) and already being edited to be a fan favorite

Jarrod's odds dropping so people not betting on him it seems and so if not F1 maybe his edit is for next Bachelor or heartbreak or something? Because he got a TON of airtime (the most out of all the F1 contenders), second out limo, longest M&G, reaction shots/ITMs, CP 1on1 time shown, etc. Basically the normal edit in first ep for a F1.

James has also dropped but his edit was pretty good too and quite a bit of airtime for his M&G (I didn't see if he had a CP chat shown).

Ryan's odds are hilarious

@SugarAndSpice is all-in betting meaning that a contestant leaves then people lose their money? Or?