Re: General Chit Chat - #2

by **Norcalgal** Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:22 pm

@HavaDrPepper 704/14,784 suggests a 4.76% rate of infection among those tested. This seems high - is everyone who WANTS a test being given one? And are ALL labs conducting tests reporting? I wonder if some of the tests are repeats which would make the rate of infection higher?

Not expecting you to have the answers but I feel we need to question the statistics. Where I live, they consider it an invasion of privacy to release any information other than county of infection and absolute numbers of infection/death. No way to determine the possible transmission rate or risk of infection.

by HavaDrPepper Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:45 pm

Astrobach wrote:@HavaDrPepper Thanks for that info. Just out of curiosity, what is the population of the state of Ohio right now? Trying to get a sense of scale / percentage.
TYIA

About 11.7 million per state officials on one of their updates. I've also seen 11.69 online. So somewhere in that range.

According to 2019 estimates, the 7th most populous state (CA, TX, FL, NY, PA, IL then OH)

https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_population

by HavaDrPepper Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:54 pm

Norcalgal wrote:@HavaDrPepper 704/14,784 suggests a 4.76% rate of infection among those tested. This seems high - is everyone who WANTS a test being given one? And are ALL labs conducting tests reporting? I wonder if some of the tests are repeats which would make the rate of infection higher?

Not expecting you to have the answers but I feel we need to question the statistics. Where I live, they consider it an invasion of privacy to release any information other than county of infection and absolute numbers of infection/death. No way to determine the possible transmission rate or risk of infection.

They have said in their live updates that they are restricting tests to those with the most serious symptoms. Because for about a month, they had the test with the bad reagents that were basically useless. The tests they did do had to be sent to the CDC. They also don't want us (citizens of Ohio) to fixate on testing, but want us to follow the guidelines put out by both the governor and the president over these last few weeks. They do emphasize that the numbers will probably keep going up.

From Dr Amy's report today, I took it that they now have the reporting issue worked out so that they will be getting good numbers going forward.

I do like listening to their news conferences because they do give information without invading anyone's privacy. Only one person who passed was mentioned by name and he was a friend of the governor and the family had announced his death was because of the virus before the news conference when the governor talked about it.

The one thing Ohio is not reporting that other states are is the number of "recovered" patients.

by Chgohighlife Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:55 pm

Norcalgal wrote:@HavaDrPepper 704/14,784 suggests a 4.76% rate of infection among those tested. This seems high - is everyone who WANTS a test being given one? And are ALL labs conducting tests reporting? I wonder if some of the tests are repeats which would make the rate of infection higher?

Not expecting you to have the answers but I feel we need to question the statistics. Where I live, they consider it an invasion of privacy to release any information other than county of infection and absolute numbers of infection/death. No way to determine the possible transmission rate or risk of infection.

@Norcalgal
No state has enough tests to test everyone so there is very little random testing. The sample group is made up PRIMARILY of people who are showing symptoms and health care workers. I’m surprised the rate isn’t higher.

by HavaDrPepper Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:41 pm

I just heard about this so looked it up online.

Basically, a bunch of 20-somethings in Kentucky had a coronavirus party and now one of them tested positive.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/25/coronavirus-party-young-kentucky-partygoer-has-covid-19-says-beshear/5076632002/

deadhorse

by Dutchy23 Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:35 pm

There aren't enough tests in Europe either. It seems a part of the test kit is fabricated in China. With all the factories closing down over there, they couldn't produce more tests. Now that everything is starting up again, maybe they can produce more. They are also working on a different test, that gives a result after 45 minutes. Still there are a lot of people needed to do all the testing.

In some parts of the world where they do test and isolate everyone there are indeed less infected and diseased, but those countries are not building immunity. It may seem cruel, but as long as there is no vaccine or cure, it is best to build immunity.

by Astrobach Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:03 pm

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2213-2600%2820%2930134-X
Excellent article on the wearing of mask issue. BTW. It’s a global phenomena that supplies are insufficient, in large part because more than 70% of production comes from China...who has a high need for them AND their own factories have been.slowed down. Another reason why outsourcing everything is a bad economic model. IMO. There are many companies right here and in Canada who were making similar products- and other essential supplies- and were forced out by this trend.
JMO

by sdmom Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:58 pm

Oh mask or no mask, that’s the question!

by **Norcalgal** Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:29 am

Had a doctor's appointment this week and everyone in the office was wearing those homemade masks. Just saying ...

by **Norcalgal** Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:31 am

Our state senator had a teleconference this evening and had 2 county public health MDs as well as a professor of Public Health from UCLA. The issue of testing was a hot button. Most countries are using the World Health Organization developed test and methodology. However, the CDC developed their own. The UCLA prof said this is one reason we're behind in getting more people tested. He said lots of lessons are being learned ruing this pandemic.

by veg_out Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:37 am

It does look like some hospitals are accepting homemade masks as reserves. Vanderbilt Univ. face mask donations (They also include a how-to tutorial!)

ETA: Here's a rundown of ways to help NYC: NYC donation options

This site also accepts mask and PPE donations: https://getusppe.org/

Checking local essential services' websites and their policies on accepting homemade PPE might provide information on options in other communities and areas if you're interested in contributing.

Some tutorials for anyone inclined to dust off their sewing machine if personal resources permit:
1. a simple mask
2. mask with filter pocket

Stay well PINKHEART

by Chgohighlife Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:40 am

Astrobach wrote:
GuardianAngel wrote:They initially said children won't get the virus, there are children who have been infected, they said only those who travel get infected, there have been many who have not travelled and got infected. They confirmed it is now community spreading meaning there is no association with travel or anyone who was infected. They said only the elderly are vulnerable, there are teens, 20's 30's 40's 50's being infected and dying. They said you can get it from someone who cough's and sneezes and particles are airborne. Now they say those droplets can remain in the air for 3 hours and on surfaces two to three days.

Most people in other countries live a very healthy life style. Italians eat fresh food daily, no additives, it's not allowed in their country. They eat what they grow. The Mediterranean diet is famous not because it's a diet to loose weight in Italy, it's a way of living. A marathon runner who I would think is very healthy, believed to be patient one got infected and infected many more before he was tested. We all know what the death toll is in that country.

It's much simpler to say home.

Italy Source

I have been staying home and following the information and statistics that are issued by several countries, and sites. Canada has excellent daily situation reports that include percentages and now epidemiology breakdown. for the cases reported. I think that the confusion comes from the conclusion we or some draw from reading that a very small - at first - non- existant- percentage are sick, means that they are not affected. Which is the danger of reading and jumping to conclusions based on these numbers. I have a report from March 16th that shows that more than 80 % of cases WERE related to travel, or proximity to travelers. Today, the numbers are 51% for travelers and 44 % community exposure. 4 % pending completes the data.
So what happens is clear, this virus was first brought in by travelers in Italy and other places too. 100% caused by travel. Then, as they continue their trip they came in contact with people, in all kinds of public places, before they were aware of the contagious nature of what they had. 2 weeks before ‘ patient 0’ in Italy, that couple was NOT tested because of ‘ fear of xenophobia’ and they went on to roam around Italy, where they left their traces in many other regions - all traditional tourists spots- that took a few weeks to show any sign of infection.
In the meantime, restaurants who were potentially contaminated and other public places were visited by hundreds of other residents, workers or other tourists and it starts a trail of contagion. The elapsed time it took to people to start noticing symptoms was already way behind the real level of contagion, hence thats why the curve goes UP exponentially and surprises everyone. Add to that, the economic pressure and the lack of knowledge and proper communication throughout the country, it’s leaders and it’s border control, and we have a pandemic. It’s spread from Italy to other European countries, and more Chinese ‘ source ‘ infected people were found to have traveled or be in contact in various big cities like Paris and London.

As an example of quick leadership, Canada reported this history:

On January 22, 2020, Canada implements screening requirements related to COVID-19 for travellers returning from China to major airports in Montréal, Toronto and Vancouver.
On January 15, 2020, the Public Health Agency of Canada activates the Emergency Operation Centre to support Canada's response to COVID-19.
On January 7, 2020, China confirmed COVID-19.
On December 31, 2019, the World Health Organization was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The virus did not match any other known virus.
* source: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.htm

The US did not have ANY control or screening before ??? It is virtually impossible to know for sure because no real data seems available.
All I found is this:
The first known case of COVID-19 in the U.S. was confirmed on January 20, 2020, in a 35-year-old man who had returned from Wuhan, China five days earlier.[1] The White House Coronavirus Task Force was established on January 29.[6] Two days later, the Trump administration declared a public health emergency and announced restrictions on travelers arriving from China.[7]” source : Wikipedia

It took 9 days- plus the 5 days of actual arrival date- for the White House to react after a possible week with a known case of Covid-19 . And that DIDNT include ANY screenings at airport, just ‘ restrictions’ on the 31 st. Trump himself had several personal meetings with Chinese businessmen in January. These critical weeks were instrumental in propagating the virus. And it continued until MARCH when more measures - but not complete- were taken.

In conclusion and IMO, it’s a normal statistical curve that MORE contagion will come from unknown or ‘ community’ contact, as many are unaware, ignorant or defying the symptoms and it’s consequences they carry around.

At the same time, we can’t continue expecting containment when the major source is not addressed, which is entry in the country by plane, boat or car.

I have chosen to stay home as much as possible, with very limited time out for essentials only AND I always wear a N-95 mask, because I am protecting myself and others by doing so in public places. In the meantime I am taking several immune boosters and clean up my house in places that are needing it.
All JMHO

YES. Elections have consequences. Management in each state and country is the proof of that. Some governors are amazing. Mine is one of them. All of the state governors had a meeting with the White House over two weeks ago which should have told them what THEY (each governor) needed to do. If they instead sat back and waited for the national response instead of proactively building and listening to and implementing the recommendations of their own teams - they knew better. They just failed to do better. All IMO.

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