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Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by Sprite on Fri Aug 07, 2020 8:48 pm

Post the betting odds for Locky's season here.


You could be the juiciest, most ripe peach, but there is still going to be someone who doesn't like peaches.
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Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* Empty Re: Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Post by Bobette on Fri Aug 07, 2020 9:14 pm

Bringing over relevant posts to date:

Before and during filming

@Bobette wrote:I'm keeping a close eye on Sportsbet's numbers, which so far have not budged an inch.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* Oxji93C

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* A17TlQH

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The above is just "statistically most likely" guesses IMO - when the numbers change that will be significant because it will be based on info about the actual F4.

Also noting that TAB have previously proven to be more reliable/accurate than Sportsbet - but they don't even have a market for Bach or BiP yet.  Hopefully soon...

July 25

@Bobette wrote:Sportsbet odds have CHANGED for the first time since pre-filming.  Significant since Bella appears to be back so filming may have wrapped.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* KYIQbGC

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* NgzgDY9

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TAB are more reliable/accurate but the fact that any changes have been made means something.  Stats don't correlate with any of the first 4 released.  Suspect

 

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Bella is 25
Irena is 30
Rosemary is 23
Steph is 26

I wonder how old Busty Blonde is.

@Bobette wrote:ETA: Adding states for the four girls released so far:

Irena - 30/Vic
Rosemary - 23/Qld
Steph - 26/Vic
Bella - 25/NSW

So yeah, none tick Sportsbet's 28-29/NSW boxes.

August 6

@Bobette wrote:
@Agent99 wrote:Sportsbet's odds have changed to 30-31 yr old from Victoria.  According to that Irena is F1.

There could be some funny business happening with the old "fell in love with two people" no idea

@Agent99 Nice catch!   thumbsup

I think they're playing the odds straight - 1.50 on the very specific age bracket shows high confidence so unless Llama girl is also 30-1 from Vic then Irena it is, IMO.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* J0nSJ6f

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* Nr4UekR

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Fits also with this article I was just about to post on the SM thread in which DM chose pics of Irena and Llama girl.  Llama possibly an anticipated F3/fan favourite IMO.

@Bobette wrote:
@Agent99 wrote:If llama girl is 28/29 from NSW, I am going to be Suspect

@Agent99 Yeah I agree I'll be Suspect Suspect right alongside you.  laugh out loud  

That said, I can't see Llama and Irena being F1/F2 because there's not much to differentiate them (unless their personalities are polar opposites which I somehow doubt).  More likely Llama is F3 and Bella or Kaitlyn F2 IMO.  

We are already seeing a strong emphasis in interviews/articles on "taking the physicality out of the relationships" so the *theme* is going to be forming an emotional connection and choosing against his usual type IMO.

... which will probably last 3 months tops.  Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* 3806527698
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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 10, 2020 1:44 am

Vic has shortened - Irena looking more certain all the time IMO.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* OzAJEiq

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* HdsEili

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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Mon Aug 10, 2020 2:14 am

Victoria and 30-31 are close to unbackable already, looking through the bios there are a few other girls that fit that demo, but of the final 5 from the pap pics only Irena does. Will be waiting to hear the sparkly music music when she gets out of the limo
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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 10, 2020 5:05 am

@Enough wrote:What's the name of BB?

Who is Marliana. She is listed as favourite to win on Sportsbet.

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/novelty-bets/the-bachelor-australia/the-bachelor-australia-2020-4969435

@Agent99 wrote:@Enough  That is interesting.  It must be a red herring of sorts, as I don't even think she is in the below group shot that happens just before lockdown.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* GAqOtYZ

@Bobette wrote:BB is Kaitlyn and she isn't on the list yet (thinking she comes in as an intruder).  She looks much more like Locky's type IMO, but she's 26 from QLD not 30-31 from Vic.  How very interesting.

3.5 for Marlaina isn't F1 numbers - it should be lower than that - and she wasn't in the pics of the F5.  And 5.0 for Irena is definitely not F1 numbers either.  

Could be a red herring as @Agent99 says and the numbers will fall into line soon.  The only other thing I can think of is that maybe purple dress is also an intruder not Steph and is in fact F1?

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:She fits the age and state profile that has been favoured, Sportsbet might be hoping to get some early money on her before the show start airing if she’s MOT. Or she could be hidden behind the tree? laugh out loud

She’s not in the pap pics of the supposed F5 RC, and she was posting on Insta in early June. When did filming go back again?

@butterflylove wrote:Oh wowow, I just finally caught up on everything!! Since they haven't released Kaitlyn, surely that means she's an intruder? But would they have zoom intruders? I feel like there has to be because 23 is such an odd number to begin with.

Also 😂 at Bel, Bella & Izzy - gotta have that distinction and separation when you have 3 Isabella's 😂.

Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* Ui8o8EI
Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* ER0QXKa

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@Dirty Street Pie That's a good point about Sportsbet trying to attract early non-winning bets on Marlaina being a Vic girl - why else put the states in brackets?  They haven't done that before.  Suspect

@Vjeff wrote:Marlaina? She was posting again from 21 April.

@Bobette wrote:I'm confident she's not F1 - IMO this is a combination of Sportsbet deliberately putting a non-winning Vic girl at the top of the table to attract bets, knowing they won't have to pay out on them, and the public noticing that the winner is tipped to be 30-31 from Vic and deciding that Marlaina is hotter than Irena and more likely to win, thus betting on her, which is driving her odds down further. I'd expect Irena's odds to come down within the next 24 hours if she is indeed F1, like Conor's did (he was 7.0 when first listed).
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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:20 pm

Suspect

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Post by butterflylove on Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:24 pm

Whaaaat? Betting suspended??

@Bobette wrote:Suspect

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Post by Bobette on Mon Aug 10, 2020 6:37 pm

@butterflylove Winner's age suspended, and the market for state has been removed entirely.  

It's not unusual to remove those markets when the named list comes out - but they don't usually suspend them.  Might not mean anything but perhaps too many people were working out who F1 is.  Irena's odds haven't changed though (yet) so... no idea  

Sportsbet is a bit erratic - TAB will give us a clearer picture if/when they open their market (probably after the premiere).
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Post by Vjeff on Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:36 pm

Might put some money on Irena while the odds are still good
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Post by Agent99 on Tue Aug 11, 2020 12:34 am

TAB odds are up and Irena is favourite.

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Post by Bobette on Tue Aug 11, 2020 1:30 am

DING DING DING!  Cool Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* 2498057887

Bloody Sportsbet trying to rake in those sweet Marlaina dollars.   Rolling Eyes  

TAB on the other hand doesn't care enough to be tricky IMO.  Bachelor Australia - Season 8 - Locky Gilbert - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* 3806527698
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Post by Vjeff on Tue Aug 11, 2020 7:10 pm

Irena is favourite again on Sportsbet at 2.75
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