The Bachelorette - Season 12 - Potential Lead - *Sleuthing - Spoilers*

nothatgirl wrote:I think it's like anything else. Do SM followings and polls and Twitter trends represent every single viewer? Absolutely not. But just like presidential polls and preliminary date that are used to predict the November election results, they're the best we got to make a pretty good estimate of what the general tendencies and opinions are. It would be crazy of TPTB to dismiss that kind of data. IMO.

I agree completely.  It is a big part of a network's business to know how viewers are responding to their shows via trends, polls, analysis of ratings and twitter data etc.   I think they pick who they want and spin that how they want to but the general temperature of the audience is part of the decision process IMO.

I agree that MF's little polls are just a way to keep die hard fans thinking they might have some individual say in the matter, even though they don't.  MF has a very small number of followers.  He's just playing around, IMO.  But that doesn't mean the network and producers don't take into account the larger scale general audience reactions.  I think they do.  And personally, I think fan favorite is definitely a real thing in all of reality tv.  Survivor has used the tactic of bringing back fan faves for years.  And part of why the whole recycling of leads has been so effective for the Bachelor franchise, IMO, is the investment viewers have in watching someone they liked continue their journey.

That said, I don't think either Caila or Jojo will have a big impact on ratings either way.  Most fans watch regardless. But Jojo sure will have a huge advantage from a marketing perseptive of building up the story of the next Ette deserving her shot at happily ever after. If ever there was an F2 that would generate an uptick in interest as Bachelorette, I think it's this time, JMO.

Ben has 1 million followers on IG. This weeks episode was watched live by 8 million people. I'd say a pretty big portion of the audience does use SM. They may not even follow anyone, but that doesn't stop them from clicking on polls in articles and the like. I don't use SM either or follow a single person from this franchise, but I still post on this board and vote in polls if I come by them. The ones who don't do that either are a mystery. Sorry, but I don't think a few friends of the posters here are any more indicative of the general public than SM. Aren't most advertisers aiming their products at young adults? Those are the people using SM.

The thing with those polls are that not very many people vote in them and they usually let you vote multiple times so the zealous fans will be more likely to do that. I usually don't bother because I think they're meaningless. I don't know who they want but still think Jojo may be out because she's f2. There may be a lot of calls for Jojo after the finale but it might be too late since they have to start filming pretty much immediately. I guess we'll know soon enough.

metalgirl wrote:Let me see if I understand:

If going by supposed SM "un-popularity", the producers pick Caila, then all the people complaining about her will refuse to watch and the show will get horrible ratings and die.  

But if going by the same arbitrary and unknown criteria they pick JoJo, then obviously the show will be a huge hit, she will be THE.BEST.BACHELORETTE.EVER and the show will go on for years.

Do I have this right, according to the almighty "Social Media Soothsayers"?  If they pick Caila, the show will die.  If they pick JoJo, it will live on forever?  

I specifically said that they could pick a night one, wacky eliminee to be the lead and the show would still go on and most people would still watch so...I don't know what you are referring to. I haven't made those claims and I haven't seen anyone else do so either. We are just discussing how relevant social media popularity is to choosing a lead, not the impact it has on a show's ratings or longevity. And, I do believe it's important; I think it's the whole reason they do recycled leads now- you want the audience to be emotionally invested and motivated to watch their journey. It's not as easy to trick viewers as people think. If it had been, the ratings wouldn't have taken such a dive before Jason's season/the recycling trend. IMO.

I do think the producers can pick an F2 if they really want her. I think if they want an F3 or F4 more , they will do that. So if JoJo is their first choice they will give it to her. IF Caila is their first choice she will get it. It seems dumb to pick someone just because they are in the F3 or not pick someone because they are F2. I do think that Kaitlyn was picked last year because she was their first choice, not just because she was F3. Same with Andi. I do think that no F2 has been picked because they were never the producers first choice. JMO.

Recycling was going on a long time before Jason's season. Trista was the first and Bob from her season was next followed by Meredith from his season.

Also, I disagree that they could pick anyone as bachelorette and people will still watch...I really do think producers try to pick someone that viewers like and will root for. I don't think they would ever pick Olivia, because she wasn't well liked.

albean99 wrote:Recycling was going on a long time before Jason's season. Trista was the first and Bob from her season was next followed by Meredith from his season.

Yes, but it wasn't consistently done like the way it is now.

RS just tweeted this

(POSSIBLE SPOILER): Caila filming what looks like her intro video in downtown Hudson, OH this morning.

Certainly not a guarantee bc Arie & Nick had intro videos done & didn't get the lead but, this is definitely a good sign it's gonna be her

@ realitysteve on twitter.

He tweeted two pics of Caila filming but I can't bring the pics here with my phone.

@Fingersandtoes Thanks! Yay! I really hope it's her and they're not just pulling an Arie/Nick on her.  





Source: @realitysteve

I like the comments to that tweet. So excited.

^ Nick and Arie both had what appeared to be intro videos filmed, leading people to believe they they were next lead, then they were not chosen.  IIRC, TPTB also hired personal trainers for both to get in shape.

ETA: I was responding to a post that asked what it means to pull a Nick\Arie, but now post is gone?