Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Possible F1 Clues - NO Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

natik wrote:Ok so I wanted to get back to that pic with Ali. So I checked the IG of the Mayfair Hotel Adelaide and went through the list of the people they are following and catched a familiar face (no not Elise or Matty). And I remembered how that person was commenting on Elise IG. So The Hotel page is following one of Elise friends (well it's nothing earthbreaking) but I checked the IG of Elise friend. So her name is Kate and she is as I said friends with Elise and she works for channel ten as weather presenter. I checked out her following list and the interesting part of it is that out of the Bach Nation AU people she only follows Elise and Matty and no one else. No one from the previous Bachelor or Bachelorette franchise.





And look who is on her following list also Elise friend the Radio Nova girl who is cheering on twitter for Elise. By the way she wrote something for the Nova page about today's episode.

https://www.nova100.com.au/entertainment/bachelor-got-super-brutal-tonight

So I went through Elise friends and it's really strange for a F2 how they are backing her up. For example the week after Elise had her first SD that was in one of her friends insta stories



There is also Elise friend Sarah who posted this on her FB back in July (@mercieme already posted that screen in Elise thread)



So Sarah is pretty vocal about Elise on the official Bachelor IG. Under the post with the question "They say a kiss can transport you to another world, who do you think best fits in Matty`s?"
Sarah wrote "Elise"





It´s on you guys to think about how relevant that is but I personally never saw a F2 with so vocal friends. And don`t forget about one thing those friends are working in the showbiz and could easily know the scoop even if Elise didn't want them to tell. IMO

HEA wrote:
ELISE

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

ELORA

via GIPHY

via GIPHY

my GIF made from recorded TV


this speaks for itself.... for both

SugarAndSpice wrote:OK! Data has been finalised and graphed! IMO the odds represent the changes in public betting, and the max loss represents the risk sportsbet is willing to take (ie the higher the loss, the higher the risk to sportsbet).

Fig 1 shows the raw data of odds and Max loss for the F3 ladies. Episode numbers are shown. The inset for each graph is focusing on the odds/max loss for ep15 and ep16


Figure 1: Max loss and odds for F3 ladies. Inset is focused on changes during ep15 and ep16.


Fig 2 represents the normalised data to compare the swing in odds/max loss ratio between Laura and Elise. Note that I havent marked ALL episodes, because I did not take odds at the start/end of all eps, but did do so in between. So for correctness, I haven't labelled all episodes on the chart. To simplify this means the following:
Odds
Laura consistently had better odds of winning than Elise. After Laura's 1 SD (ep3) her odds of winning were 88% vs 12% for Elise. I don't think that would surprise anyone, because Elise was no where to be seen at this point.
The best odds for Elise (30%) occurred at ep14, but were still significantly lower than Laura's (70%). Again, not a surprise really, given the betting public believed Laura to be the winner (IMO)

Max loss
This represents how much sportsbet was willing to risk. IMO this tells us who sportsbet thinks is most likely to win. Therefore, the bar chart for max loss represents the %chance sportsbet thought that contestant would lose (be F2).  For the entire season, the loss for Laura was significantly less than Elise, ie the chance of sportsbet losing out was always lowest with Laura, therefore, they believed she would be F1. The lowest max loss for Laura was 4% vs Elise's 96%, this occurred at the start of Ep9, following Laura's SQT at the nepean (ep 8). Whats interesting is that after Elise came into the picture (Ep10 1SD) there was a period of time where Sportsbet had almost 50/50 max loss for Elise vs Laura. After Ep13 (elises SQT), this changed back to favour Laura as F1.


Figure 2: Normalised odds and max loss comparing Laura (red) and Elise (pink).  With relevant episodes or events marked.
Source: My data from sportsbet

Conclusions
Based on odds, the betting public consistently rated Laura as most likely to win.
Based on Max loss, Sportsbet consistently rated Laura as most likely to win. However, once Elise had her 1SD sportsbet showed some uncertainty and had Laura and Elise almost with 50/50 chance of winning. This changed after the SQT (James Blunt) with Elise, to once again favour Laura.
Did sportsbet know the outcome? Most likely. Though the uncertainty shown after Elises 1SD is notable, and could indicate Sportsbet may not have had concrete evidence.

Of course, other than the hard facts (odds/max loss) the interpretation thereof is all my opinion.
And that Sleuths, is the stats summary for Matty's season of the Bachelor!