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Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:46 am

Odds as of this evening :

                      Odds.   Max bet.      Max win.      Max loss

Chelsie.           1.73.     137.             237.            100
Kristen.           4.50.     35.               157.50.        122.50
Abbie.             6.50.     35.               227.50.        192.50
Helena.           8.          35.              280.              245
Sogand.          10.        35.              350.              315

So Chelsie’s odds have taken a dive, possibly because people are actually betting money on her, and bringing the price down, but her max bet is much higher, so her max loss is still $100, which is not very F1 ish. If Sportsbet were playing it straight and not messing with us her max bet would be $35, the same as everyone else, which would give her a max loss of $25.55
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Post by Bobette on Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:48 am

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Odds as of this evening :

                      Odds.   Max bet.      Max win.      Max loss

Chelsie.           1.73.     137.             237.            100
Kristen.           4.50.     35.               157.50.        122.50
Abbie.             6.50.     35.               227.50.        192.50
Helena.           8.          35.              280.              245
Sogand.          10.        35.              350.              315

So Chelsie’s odds have taken a dive, possibly because people are actually betting money on her, and bringing the price down, but her max bet is much higher, so her max loss is still $100, which is not very F1 ish. If Sportsbet were playing it straight and not messing with us her max bet would be $35, the same as everyone else, which would give her a max loss of $25.55

I totally agree @Dirty Street Pie - I see no F1 numbers for Chelsea or anyone else.  Way too much to lose.

Well done for spotting these this morning because they certainly tell a story!

All these girls are now ruled out for me and TPTB/Sportsbet are even craftier than I gave them credit for.
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Post by Dirty Street Pie on Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:55 am

Yep, I was really surprised when they were up this morning, I was just checking to see if there had been any movement on blonde or black hair with Chelsie’s introduction this morning, so it was quite a shock to see that the generic bets were gone already. 

I don’t remember if we usually get individual bets when the big cast photo with all the names is released, or on night 1? In any case, THIS is not what normally happens
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Post by Bobette on Wed Jul 10, 2019 8:59 am

@Dirty Street Pie wrote:Yep, I was really surprised when they were up this morning, I was just checking to see if there had been any movement on blonde or black hair with Chelsie’s introduction this morning, so it was quite a shock to see that the generic bets were gone already. 

I don’t remember if we usually get individual bets when the big cast photo with all the names is released, or on night 1? In any case, THIS is not what normally happens

It's usually after episode 1.  Definitely not 2-3 weeks out.  Such a brazen money grabbing exercise IMO; I am almost impressed.  laugh out loud  

Saved me a bunch of time sleuthing too because I'll now be looking elsewhere for F1 and not wasting any more time on these five.  :yes:

Great catch thumbsup
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Post by SpoilerAlert on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:23 pm

Bachelor Australia - Matt Agnew - Season 7 - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers* - Page 8 3806527698

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Post by SpoilerAlert on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:31 pm

It’s been fun reading this thread and noticing how little you guys know or understand about the bookies.

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Post by LeapofFaith on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:40 pm

@SpoilerAlert wrote:It’s been fun reading this thread and noticing how little you guys know  or understand about the bookies.

welcomesign please enlighten or correct where they are wrong? i know i for one have no idea about betting laugh out loud
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Post by Zaynab on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:40 pm

@SpoilerAlert wrote:It’s been fun reading this thread and noticing how little you guys know  or understand about the bookies.

Welcome, Tell us more, I was thinking the bookies want us to think neither of them win with the high odds and higher payouts and the ones with the low odds have more of a chance to win, then when it starts to air they will flip it. And will have made all this money on odds that we’re lower. As most people probably aren’t going to put money on like Sogand right now with her high odds.
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Post by SpoilerAlert on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:50 pm

Forget the max payout equation for the contestants and concentrate on odds for the markets instead. You’re getting caught up with the max payout, when all this does is protect the bookie across all markets. As the user “Enough” finally stated, the max payouts across all markets are going to be pretty much even.

The bookies want to hold as much of your money as they can for as long as they can. I’ll let you guys work it out from there.

And no, the bookies don’t play mind games with the markets. Initial markets are released based on rumors and leaks and then when money comes in OR circumstances change ie a big leak happens or contests gradually get voted out this is when the odds get crunched in.


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Post by LeapofFaith on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:53 pm

@SpoilerAlert wrote:Forget the max payout equation for the contestants and concentrate on odds for the markets instead. You’re getting caught up with the max payout, when all this does is protect the bookie across all markets. As the user “Enough” finally stated, the max payouts across all markets are going to be pretty much even.

The bookies want to hold as much of your money as they can for as long as they can. I’ll let you guys work it out from there.

And no, the bookies don’t play mind games with the markets. Initial markets are released based on rumors and leaks and then when money comes in OR circumstances change ie a big leak happens or contests gradually get voted out this is when the odds get crunched in.


ok so Chelsie has the lowest odds so in your opinion would you say she is the F1 atm going by those odds? is that right?
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Post by olive54321 on Wed Jul 10, 2019 11:59 pm

@LeapofFaith wrote:
@SpoilerAlert wrote:Forget the max payout equation for the contestants and concentrate on odds for the markets instead. You’re getting caught up with the max payout, when all this does is protect the bookie across all markets. As the user “Enough” finally stated, the max payouts across all markets are going to be pretty much even.

The bookies want to hold as much of your money as they can for as long as they can. I’ll let you guys work it out from there.

And no, the bookies don’t play mind games with the markets. Initial markets are released based on rumors and leaks and then when money comes in OR circumstances change ie a big leak happens or contests gradually get voted out this is when the odds get crunched in.


ok so Chelsie has the lowest odds so in your opinion would you say she is the F1 atm going by those odds? is that right?
I guess so because she has a high max bet and low odds, encouraging betters to put more money down. And betters who bet on her wouldn't be paid out until the finale has a aired. And judging from the preseason betting odds where blonde had low odds and a high max bet, this means F1 is likely a blonde too. If we're to go by what Spoiler Alert is saying.

Edit: Actually, I don't really understand betting, so, please elaborate @SpoilerAlert . Please explain it to us like we're five and just tell us who you think is likely to win based off these bets.

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Post by SpoilerAlert on Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:17 am

I’m not sure exactly how much im allowed to spoil on here without ruining the show for you guys.

The winner is known and small pocket of people from the area she is from know this. However this seems to be spreading rather quickly now.

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