Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:

AEF wrote:Someone I was talking to was saying $2.50 from Sportsbet for Luke would indicate a lack of confidence from them and only something under $2.00 would mean Sportsbet knew the winner - not sure if this could be correct?

His $10 max bet is the biggest indicator, IMO.  But, if Stu comes in at anything under $2.00 things could get VERY interesting!

This was exactly my thought. I don't know if Sportsbet are 100% confident this time around. I wonder what Ep we will see the intruders.

It's unfortunate that Sportsbet has ruined the Aussie shows imo and even in regards to media, they write articles based on Sportsbet now. It's worse than RS because it's based solely on money and that's it - it's not an opinion or anything from Sportsbet - just money doing the talking. It's a pattern this year and half with Sportsbet literally being on the money that seems to me that those who work on the show give info to Sportsbet so that they can make money themselves. It doesn't help that the cast and editing has been lackluster of late either. It will be interesting to see how much of pre-season sleuthingand sleuthing of FRC confirms Sportsbet (and not the other way around) since Ep3 SD usually is the biggest indicator of F1 and first dates and intruders never "win"... will see if Sportsbet aligns with this pattern but either way still will sleuth/discuss

IMO it would be good for Sportsbet to be wrong (not sure they can be) as I think they reduce viewers' investment in the show. At the moment this feels a little like Des's season where sleuthing showed Brooks had left at f3 but the RS spoiler was that he was F1 and Brooks did eliminate himself at F3. Stu is not your typical intruder as Sophie already knows him and those first interactions imo are going to be good viewing. Sportsbet odds for Stu as a number of you have said and if Luke is there at F3 will make this interesting.

Yeah to me Sportsbet is ridiculous and I don't even see how it's allowed to continue to be legal. Even with a disclaimer it's sickening that they're taking money when they know the winner.

Hear hear to all of you. Sportsbet have completely ruined the last 3/4 seasons. What’s the point in sleuthing apart from fun and pre season. It should be outlawed

I'm not convinced yet that Luke is F1, based solely on Sportsbet. Given there are intruders coming in, I expect a possible shake up of the odds. Yes, historically intruders never win, but comparing Lukes odds/max loss to Laura's from this time last season, there are definitely differences. In fact his maxloss more closely matches that of Elise! If Sportsbet were 100% sure Luke was the winner, I would think his max loss would be lower.

That said, current odds from Sportsbet with max loss accounted for are:
Luke $2.50, max loss $49.50
Jarrod $4.50, max loss $87.50
James $14.00, max loss $325
Apollo $6.50, max loss $137.50

For comparison, before Bach ep3 Laura/Elise's odds/max loss
Laura $1.60, maxloss $30
Elise $6.00, max loss $50

We'll see how this compares after Lukes 1SD

SugarAndSpice wrote:I'm not convinced yet that Luke is F1, based solely on Sportsbet. Given there are intruders coming in, I expect a possible shake up of the odds. Yes, historically intruders never win, but comparing Lukes odds/max loss to Laura's from this time last season, there are definitely differences. In fact his maxloss more closely matches that of Elise! If Sportsbet were 100% sure Luke was the winner, I would think his max loss would be lower.

That said, current odds from Sportsbet with max loss accounted for are:
Luke $2.50, max loss $49.50
Jarrod $4.50, max loss $87.50
James $14.00, max loss $325
Apollo $6.50, max loss $137.50

For comparison, before Bach ep3 Laura/Elise's odds/max loss
Laura $1.60, maxloss $30
Elise $6.00, max loss $50

We'll see how this compares after Lukes 1SD

I agree. If sportsbet were sure, I'd expect lukes odds to be like Laura's. If Stu comes in with lower odss than Luke well than that proves it.

I read an article that said Stu was F1 because of the Sportsbet odds. This was based on the fact Sportsbet has been right about the winner for the past few seasons,. The writer said because Luke's odds weren't as low as the winner's have been they predicted Stu's would be and hence he wouid be F1. It will be interesting to see if she is right. But one thing is for certain, Sportsbet is the ultimate sleuthing spoiler.

Thanks @SugarAndSpice, your stats are very enlightening as always.  

I'm excited to see what odds Stu comes in at.  Not expecting to like him but would love to see someone to upset the Luke applecart.  When do we think the intruders will arrive?  They are there on the group date filmed exactly half way through filming which suggests they may come in mid-season but is that too late, especially if one is a contender for F1?

Source

How does Brett have those odds? He has barely been shown and from what's been sleuthed doesn't seem to get a SD but may have. I guess some of general audience may see Brett as a contender? Very strange odds though based on everything sleuthed.

Regarding Luke and Intruder Stu, I am also looking forward to what Sportsbet does when Stu is on the show. I am most interested to see if the sleuthing of Luke's SM activity and traveling while filming was ongoing indicates he was eliminated or if there was a SM misdirect at play. 

The only contestant that I can think may be F1 if not Luke is Stu. Stu's odds will be the most telling to me especially if they are odds-favorite more than Luke...

Sportsbet may be leaving room with Luke's odds but the other betting agencies seem more sure of him being F1 - Ladbrokes have him at 1.75 and @Sundy posted a screenshot upthread from another one with similar figures.  



Source

I think Luke's odds still point to F1.  There are too many strikes against Stu IMO - the bad preseason press, being an intruder, and being a rich Playboy (the OPPOSITE of what Sophie says she wants).

Also, Sophie said in her interview with Jackie that she was nervous before she met the guys but after the red carpet she thought "Ok, we're good".  I took that to mean she met F1 on night 1.

ETA: Brett's figures are weird but ultimately irrelevant IMO; either a misdirection by Sportsbet or else people saw his figures falling and panic bid, driving them down even more.