Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Bobette wrote:

LeapofFaith wrote:Here we go!! yet I’m so confused I thought the one with the lowest odds is always the winner no matter what the max bet is?? So I would see Britt as the f1? Anyway not long now till premiere

Lowest odds is only part of the picture @LeapofFaith - max loss is what really counts because that's how much Sportsbet stand to lose - the odds themselves can be manipulated via the max bets to give an illusion of favouritism. Anyway, look at them now:



Maybe Sophie's Mum made a massive bet so she can afford one of those fancy houses she drools over on her Instagram?  

what is happening with SB!? maybe he really does pick no one hence they have no idea what to do

IT'S BACK!  And odds have shortened already.



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Max bets have changed as well @Bobette weirdly they are all now $50, so the odds are being played straight at the moment. That blows out Cass to $375, Sophie is $200 and Brooke and Britt are both $175

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Max bets have changed as well @Bobette weirdly they are all now $50, so the odds are being played straight at the moment. That blows out Cass to $375, Sophie is $200 and Brooke and Britt are both $175

WOAH.  That's really interesting.  Britt does seem like a much better match for Nick than Sophie, but her behaviour post-show suggests more likely F2 IMO.  

With max losses so close, there really isn't much between them.  I don't think we've seen this before.  Picking no-one seeming more possible by the day IMO.

Thanks very much for doing the math

Odds have shortened further already.  Punters making early large bets?  Suckers will lose it all if there's no winner.



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I bet after Osher’s description of the women and what they’re looking for in a man the odds changed

Idlemess wrote:I bet after Osher’s description of the women and what they’re looking for in a man the odds changed

that's interesting thought because when i was listening to osher i heard him talk a lot faster when brittanys name came up....and sophie he almost sounded sad?.....looks like old fashioned sm and scap sleuthing this season....

just wondering in past seasons do the f1 and f2 odds change much? i only remember matty j season and i think laura was lowest odds from the start.....if britt stays at lowest odds she could be f1?

LeapofFaith wrote:

Idlemess wrote:I bet after Osher’s description of the women and what they’re looking for in a man the odds changed

that's interesting thought because when i was listening to osher i heard him talk a lot faster when brittanys name came up....and sophie he almost sounded sad?.....looks like old fashioned sm and scap sleuthing this season....

just wondering in past seasons do the f1 and f2 odds change much? i only remember matty j season and i think laura was lowest odds from the start.....if britt stays at lowest odds she could be f1?

I noticed that too.  It was almost an "ACT CASUAL" vibe when he was talking about Sophie IMO as if he didn't want to give anything away.  His description of her was pretty lack lustre too.  They're focussing on her career while emphasising the other girls being "sporty" or wanting a funny/passionate partner.  Classic magician's trick of distracting the audience's attention IMO.

Yes Laura was a red hot favourite from the start and never shifted.  Same with Tara being the one to get engaged on BiP - it was obvious from day 1 even though there had been very little in the media to make people think it would be her.  Previous seasons have flip flopped a little bit but this situation with Britt and Sophie being so close is a real head scratcher.  

Having the lowest max loss does suggest Britt F1 however her behaviour post-show IMO suggests F2 and Sophie's F1.  If they turn out to BOTH be F2 (i.e. he picks no one) it may be that Sophie just wasn't as into him as Britt and so she's "handling it better", giving the illusion of a carefree, confident winner, while Britt is heartbroken hence looking more like an F2.

That's really the only explanation I can think of for the odds at this stage.  It may be that Britt wins but I'm just not getting an F1 vibe from her at all.  It might also be that TPTB got sick of Sportsbet always spoiling the show and have negotiated something with them to disguise the winner but somehow I doubt it (SB just want to make money, they don't care about spoilers IMO).

It's all very interesting and I'm kind of glad SB haven't outright given away the winner like they usually do.  Can you imagine the furore if there isn't a winner though?  Bach betting is "All in" which means if there's no winner, SB don't have to pay out anyone and keep ALL bets.  People will be PISSED.  Maybe that's why they're being so wishy washy with the odds.  I just don't know.

There is a winner.  

So that rules out the "no F1" scenario.  In which case, the numbers do indeed suggest Britt wins, but other signs point to Sophie.  Perhaps they think they can risk it with longer odds for Sophie this early on, since she's not likely to be on many people's radar.  SB don't usually take risks if they know the winner though.  If Britt wins, Sophie does not appear heartbroken, I'll say that.

Curiouser and curiouser.

Does Sophie resemble his ex?
I've kind of indicated that Nick has been part of the smoke and mirrors with his IG stories. It looks like he's out and about doing his thing but most of those stories could be taped.
Somehow, I think he has been subtly sending clues all along. Slick smirk on his face says a lot.
Overall, I do think that Britt might be a better match based on lifestyle but exactly what is Nick looking for in a mate.

Idlemess wrote:Does Sophie resemble his ex?
I've kind of indicated that Nick has been part of the smoke and mirrors with his IG stories. It looks like he's out and about doing his thing but most of those stories could be taped.
Somehow, I think he has been subtly sending clues all along. Slick smirk on his face says a lot.
Overall, I do think that Britt might be a better match based on lifestyle but exactly what is Nick looking for in a mate.

IMO Sophie is very similar to Nick's ex looks wise. And I agree, his IG is full of misdirects as to his location.

NEW ODDS! BRAND NEW MARKETS!!! We've never had this many betting options before.  What do we make of this lot, gang?





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IMO - Brooke probably gets the FIR (producers would have wanted that IMO).  Would that also mean she gets the key though, or is that likely to be separate???  I think it might be separate?  Producers tell him he has to give the FIR to Brooke (diversity diversity bla bla bla) but say he's allowed to give a key to the girl he's most attracted to?  

@Dirty Street Pie.  I promise I won't keep bugging you to do this, but could you please check the max loss for Britt and Sophie at the new F1 odds, and also check the max loss for Shannon vs Britt on the first date, and Britt's max bet for first kiss?  

We know (if the paps are to be believed) that Shannon for the first date, so her max loss should be low.  If Britt's max loss is less, something very fishy is going on.  I'm now thinking Britt's Zoo date must have been her SECOND date.  That would make things very interesting since it pushes Sophie's date back to the FIFTH date, not the fourth.  

Second and fourth dates are popular F1 dates historically.  If Shannon gets the FIRST, and Britt actually got the SECOND date (not publicised), that puts Britt in a much better position for F1.  Sophie might actually be the "slow burn" latecomer F2 ala Elise????

Maybe she's just behaving like a happy F1 post-show because she wasn't that into him and is happy with F2 fame?  Thoughts pls.