Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

natik wrote:

mercieme wrote:@natik....girl I have missed ya, trust you are doing well

Laura Byrne was the 3rd episode SD but the second overall SD. Elora the Tahitian goddess was the first SD. We have no idea who got the other dates especially the Epsiode 5 SD which has historically also been for the F1. So historically we have had Anna (Tim's season) and Snez (Sam W's season) get Episode 3 SDs while Sam F (Blake's season) and Alex (Richie's season) had the Epiode 5 SDs.

We have sleuthed the F4 as Elise, Elora, Laura and Tara...you can check out the F1-F4 theads (Discussion / No Discussion) and also the SM (No Discussion threads) and of course the contestant thread to quickly catch up.

I am hoping we get no leaks (plenty of speculation already that Laura is F1 though but not confirmed IMO) from the usual suspects like we did in the last couple of seasons. We all think the SCs from the season promo will help immensely.....one more Aussie sleep to go

Hey sweety!!! Missed you too a lot! It was such a crazy but amazing time for us during Richies season. I am still thinking about it with a huge smile on my face! I am good have been busy with the russian and ukrainian season and of course worked a lot.
Thank you for the info. The thing is a good friend of mine found an interesting pattern.

They rotate the F1 dates from 3rd date to 5th one on one every season.

Anna 3rd date
Sam Frost 5th date
Snez 3rd date
Alex 5th date
???? 3rd date

So this season the Girl on the 3rd one on one date going by that pattern is the F1.

EDIT: The thing with Laura reminds me more of the Nikki situation. Seems to me like she is only a cover up for the real F1.

Hi @natik ! Yay great to see you posting!! only 1 more sleep till Bach Au interesting how u see Laura is more nikki like.... I just had a thought as well most Bach Au F1s had a jacuzzi/intimate date right?...As far as i see cmiiw but Elise is the only one who has had that intimate date...imo now i am starting to see the Nikki resemblance with Laura being the red herring of the season...hmmmm very interesting

AllAboutLove wrote:Posting here so can have the stats pre-season

First thing I notice is that Laura, Elora, Tara, and Elise are the 4 we have speculated to possibly get HTDs/F4. Seems much more than just coincidental and very likely F4 given those 4 of F7 are sleuthed to have had SDs. Also interesting that Laura is indeed bet to win with her odds.



http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor

SPORTSBET ODDS HAVE CHANGED:



Source

Laura has shortened dramatically already.  Elise has moved up in the favourites.  Tara is down.  I still don't understand why Elora's odds are so short - I haven't seen anything in the promos to justify 6 to 1.  But anyway, I wonder what happened since this time yesterday to make them change the odds already?

Was it something we said?

@Bobette....faithful ol DM ran that story they lifted from here about the odds and that Laura was the favorite, that's the only thing i can think of that changed in 1 day

These odds are just so bizarre IMO.  

Yes obviously Laura is going to be the favourite because of all the media hype etc but why on earth would they put cartwheeler Akoulina, whipped-cream loving Belinda and grammatically incorrect Alix as higher chances than Cobie, Florence and Lisa who are all in publicly-available pics of the final 7?  Clearly Sportsbet are in the business of making money so there must be a financial/psychological rationale behind this but I can't fathom it.  

Maybe they're just taking the p!ss.

Also I note the addition of this sentence: "The program is pre-recorded and the result may or may not be known in advance. Others will be added. Singles only."  Presumably this is a result of the legal kerfuffle earlier in the year.  I honestly thought they had been forbidden from taking bets after that ruling.

And umm hello, may or may not be known?  Unless TPTB blindfolded all their cameramen, killed the editors, wiped the memory of all contestants with one of those devices from Men in Black, and gave Osher his old name back to hide him in the witness protection scheme, I'm gonna guess it's known.  

@Bobette.... re your commentary on Belinda and Alix...

The Sportsbet is opposite of what I would expect based on the fanfare for girls like Cobie, Florence and Lisa on FB....i seriously don't know what to make of it; just need the SCs to tell the real story.

Elise's odds is cut off from the SportsBet SC you posted, what is it now? Thanks.

mercieme wrote:@Bobette.... re your commentary on Belinda and Alix...

The Sportsbet is opposite of what I would expect based on the fanfare for girls like Cobie, Florence and Lisa on FB....i seriously don't know what to make of it; just need the SCs to tell the real story.

Elise's odds is cut off from the SportsBet SC you posted, what is it now? Thanks.

Oh really it's cut off? That's weird - it looks fine on my computer screen. Elise is still at 9 to 1; Tara has dropped back to 10 to 1. I'd love to know how they come up with these figures.

Odds have changed again, Laura is still fave, and Elise second favourite. But why? She hasn't been featured in the media significantly more than any number of girls. IMO someone at Sportsbet has inside info saying that she goes far. Either that, or they are making like the Daily Mail,, and getting their information from here to set their odds.

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment/the-bachelor

I knew it!  

They're going to slowly sneak Elise's odds up to avoid suspicion IMO.  It would look WAAAYYY too suspicious if they had her at 4:00 already with absolutely NO justification from the promos.

After the first ep her odds will shorten even more but by then it will look like they gauged it by how awesome she comes across on the show (yes, I'm psychic, she's going to be awesome alright? ).

I'm onto you, Sportsbet!

ps Stacey and Monica are the two "model types" dumped on night 1 for sure IMO - look at their terrible odds.

ETA: What a coincidence they've bumped all the F7 girls up the rankings after we discussed earlier today how dumb it was to have them so low in the order when there were public pics of them on the boxing date. 

They're definitely reading our forum IMO.

Now all we need is for Daily Mail to come out with a story about how they've done their research and they noticed the Sportsbet odds have changed, and the cycle will be complete.

@mercieme Thanks for the information. Sounds like it`s going to be interesting.

LeapofFaith wrote:

natik wrote:

mercieme wrote:@natik....girl I have missed ya, trust you are doing well

Laura Byrne was the 3rd episode SD but the second overall SD. Elora the Tahitian goddess was the first SD. We have no idea who got the other dates especially the Epsiode 5 SD which has historically also been for the F1. So historically we have had Anna (Tim's season) and Snez (Sam W's season) get Episode 3 SDs while Sam F (Blake's season) and Alex (Richie's season) had the Epiode 5 SDs.

We have sleuthed the F4 as Elise, Elora, Laura and Tara...you can check out the F1-F4 theads (Discussion / No Discussion) and also the SM (No Discussion threads) and of course the contestant thread to quickly catch up.

I am hoping we get no leaks (plenty of speculation already that Laura is F1 though but not confirmed IMO) from the usual suspects like we did in the last couple of seasons. We all think the SCs from the season promo will help immensely.....one more Aussie sleep to go

Hey sweety!!! Missed you too a lot! It was such a crazy but amazing time for us during Richies season. I am still thinking about it with a huge smile on my face! I am good have been busy with the russian and ukrainian season and of course worked a lot.
Thank you for the info. The thing is a good friend of mine found an interesting pattern.

They rotate the F1 dates from 3rd date to 5th one on one every season.

Anna 3rd date
Sam Frost 5th date
Snez 3rd date
Alex 5th date
???? 3rd date

So this season the Girl on the 3rd one on one date going by that pattern is the F1.

EDIT: The thing with Laura reminds me more of the Nikki situation. Seems to me like she is only a cover up for the real F1.

Hi @natik ! Yay great to see you posting!! only 1 more sleep till Bach Au interesting how u see Laura is more nikki like....  I just had a thought as well most Bach Au F1s had a jacuzzi/intimate date right?...As far as i see cmiiw but Elise is the only one who has had that intimate date...imo now i am starting to see the Nikki resemblance with Laura being the red herring of the season...hmmmm very interesting

Hey @LeapofFaith Thanks for the warm welcome
I don`t know but it seems like Laura has almost the early press attention like Nikki in the last season. It`s too fast and too soon. IMO
Maybe I am wrong but wasn`t Nikki also the front runner with the bets at the start of the season last year?

Hi @natik good to see you back! With regards to the betting odds last year, Alex was the favourite before the show started airing, probably because Sportsbet knew from the paparazzi who the winner was. It was only after the show started airing, and people started placing bets based on what they were being shown that Nikki went ahead, and that's probably only because they made Alex look like a desperate clinger.

@natik! So great to have you sleuthing this season. Can't wait to read your posts 

Extremely late to the party this year with Bachelor. First ep only just played and I'm feeling very much behind on sleuthing!!

Good to see the sportsbets stats @AllAboutLove . If we go off last year's bachelorette, Lee was consistently the best odds at winning (from day one), and the others seemed to jump around a bit.