Bachelor Australia - Season 5 - Matty Johnson - F1-F4 - Discussion - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

@SugarAndSpice  mine is more like check who gets Ep 3 SD (or Ep5 SD for alternating years) and see if they go far and likely they are F1. BachUS is the same (since all F1s have had Ep3 SD since they revamped the show for Chris Soules season). They haven't even started filming for their next Bach season and already I am predicting F1 is from Ep3 SD without the lead or contestants known since filming not even started  

Did you do data for Sportsbet thoughout GL's season = pre-show airing and continuous until FRC or just near the end for GL's season?

From what I remember Sportsbet kept changing their max bets throughout the season but Lee was always in the F1 bet spot. So same as Laura has been. One of the sources for last year confirmed that Lee was F1 with actual evidence about Sportsbet and Lee being F1 before G's season even aired and stated 100% Lee wins. @Sundy can attest to this 

Thanks for doing all that superb stat analysis @SugarAndSpice!  I'm geeking out over your number crunching.  

Laura is basically unbackable with those odds and max bet limits - it's like they're not even trying to hide their insider info.

Makes me think people backed Lee early and won big on GLs season and they're not risking the same thing again.

From memory Alex was not in the same betting position at the start of Richies season. But then again I don't think we started watching the odds until mid way through the season

Bobette wrote:Thanks for doing all that superb stat analysis @SugarAndSpice!  I'm geeking out over your number crunching.  

Laura is basically unbackable with those odds and max bet limits - it's like they're not even trying to hide their insider info.

Makes me think people backed Lee early and won big on GLs season and they're not risking the same thing again.

Alex was also in the F1 spot on Sportsbet pre-season for Richie's season so I can attest to this as I was told and it was confirmed that the exact same thing happened with Alex but on a bigger scale and that those who backed Alex early won very big with Sportsbet so they made it even harder to gain money with Lee. Looks like they still lost money with Lee even with trying to do that so now they are ensuring that they won't lost hardly anything if Laura wins. Makes sense from Sportsbet POV. Also makes sense that they added that the results may be known as it is pre-recorded. So yeah, adding in everything sleuthed even pre-season (Ep3 SD) it sure won't be a shock if Laura is F1 and it was well-known 

AllAboutLove wrote:@SugarAndSpice  mine is more like check who gets Ep 3 SD (or Ep5 SD for alternating years) and see if they go far and likely they are F1. BachUS is the same (since all F1s have had Ep3 SD since they revamped the show for Chris Soules season). They haven't even started filming for their next Bach season and already I am predicting F1 is from Ep3 SD without the lead or contestants known since filming not even started  

Did you do data for Sportsbet thoughout GL's season = pre-show airing and continuous until FRC or just near the end for GL's season?

From what I remember Sportsbet kept changing their max bets throughout the season but Lee was always in the F1 bet spot. So same as Laura has been. One of the sources for last year confirmed that Lee was F1 with actual evidence about Sportsbet and Lee being F1 before G's season even aired and stated 100% Lee wins. @Sundy can attest to this 

100% confirm this is correct

AllAboutLove wrote:@SugarAndSpice  mine is more like check who gets Ep 3 SD (or Ep5 SD for alternating years) and see if they go far and likely they are F1. BachUS is the same (since all F1s have had Ep3 SD since they revamped the show for Chris Soules season). They haven't even started filming for their next Bach season and already I am predicting F1 is from Ep3 SD without the lead or contestants known since filming not even started  

Did you do data for Sportsbet thoughout GL's season = pre-show airing and continuous until FRC or just near the end for GL's season?

From what I remember Sportsbet kept changing their max bets throughout the season but Lee was always in the F1 bet spot. So same as Laura has been. One of the sources for last year confirmed that Lee was F1 with actual evidence about Sportsbet and Lee being F1 before G's season even aired and stated 100% Lee wins. @Sundy can attest to this 

Unfortunately my analysis was no where near detailed enough at the beginning of the GL season. But in my diary for the 26th of September 2016 i have scribbled that Lee is a loss of $101 and matty a loss of $99 for sports bet. That's all I'm afraid (blame a busy year at work!).

I mainly look at the loss for sportsbet, rather than the odds, even with the changing odds last season, I found it bizarre they kept changing the maxbet, meaning the loss for Matty and Lee was always close to equal.

@Bobette Nothing like crunching numbers during a slow day at work!

@Sundy  if only I had listened to my own sleuthing (Lee Ep3 SD, his video of him watching himself for the premiere, glowbybeca, stringy, etc etc etc) since even with evidence I still had doubts. But that's what happens when I'm emotionally invested and my fav contestant is potential F1 and I not only see the love story but feel it too and my fav ends up as F1 (out of 40+ different seasons I've watched only about 3 are like that for me). It's only when I am not emotionally invested that I have zero doubt about potential F1 winning.

This season I am not emotionally invested so just sleuthing and even if I like a contestant it's not an emotional investment for me. I am fine with whomever is F1 even if I say I may like one contestant over another it's not from an emotional investment POV, just subjectivity.  

Part of me is just sleuthing to see if Laura may not be F1 because otherwise it would be super boring to me as that's what I speculated back in March. So just will keep sleuthing until it's confirmed either way 

@AllAboutLove this season is exactly how I thought it would be. Apart from the SM, I didn't expect that. You know me I was with you back in on episode 3 and fell in love with the connection. This year I'm a bit meh, I do really enjoy what I've seen of Elise thus far and Simone, Lisa and Elora for that matter. I honestly do not think Matty would want to be the one who is the first to bed a woman on national Oz Bach tv, I think he is too protective of his brand for that. I think this whole overnight storyline has been leaked early to gauge public sentiment and there may be some mad last minute editing. If it occurs and maybe it does it will possibly just be implied. I still think though that it makes no difference to the F1 outcome

I found this but I think this was after screening started and Alex had a really strong start

Sundy wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:@SugarAndSpice  mine is more like check who gets Ep 3 SD (or Ep5 SD for alternating years) and see if they go far and likely they are F1. BachUS is the same (since all F1s have had Ep3 SD since they revamped the show for Chris Soules season). They haven't even started filming for their next Bach season and already I am predicting F1 is from Ep3 SD without the lead or contestants known since filming not even started  

Did you do data for Sportsbet thoughout GL's season = pre-show airing and continuous until FRC or just near the end for GL's season?

From what I remember Sportsbet kept changing their max bets throughout the season but Lee was always in the F1 bet spot. So same as Laura has been. One of the sources for last year confirmed that Lee was F1 with actual evidence about Sportsbet and Lee being F1 before G's season even aired and stated 100% Lee wins. @Sundy can attest to this 

100% confirm this is correct

That's cool! Have you guys heard Anything for this season ??

I didn't sleuth for GL's season was still upset over Richies season. I just watched to watch but found it easy to tell Lee was f1 just from georgias body language but I love when you can see the lead falling in love and it helps when the f2 are both great as well

@LeapOfFaith it is the best seeing the story unfold isn't it. gLee was possibly the easiest season IMO. I must admit I was not a diehard Matty fan so I haven't sleuthed as passionately. I get what you mean with Richies season, I was Nikki through and through but on reflection he chose correctly. I learnt a lot with that season