Bachelor Australia Season 6 - Nick Cummins - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Sundy wrote:Interesting isn’t it. Might be nothing might be something. Could explain why Britt Sophie and Cass are so tight. Maybe they are F1, F3 and F4. I still suspect they are still in the order we thought though. What date do we have the intruders entering the mansion?

I believe they are in that order, but Brooke is definitely in the mix at hometowns as I believe there were pap pics of her hometown. Cass is believed to be out at F4 as there were leaked/pap pics after the rose ceremony. The only way Intruder Britt could be there is if Sophie is not, and our reasoning for thinking Sophie is in the F2 is that she, Original Britt and Nick all came back on social media at the same time.

Intruder Britt definitely not in the final 4 or even final 7 IMO - too many pap pictures from 7 onwards in which she doesn't appear.  She'll be gone before the Segway date IMO (and all those people who bet on her will be kicking themselves   ).

New markets have been added and they're... interesting... Not sure what the cold sore business is all about.



Source

I can't see Tenille walking out - if anyone goes it'll be Dasha, IMO.

why do we need to bet on cold sores!! SB has lost the plot

LeapofFaith wrote: why do we need to bet on cold sores!! SB has lost the plot

I have this amusing mental image of the SB execs standing around their office, competing to think up the most far-fetched things people would bet on.

"Cold sores?  [raucous laughter].  Oh Johnny, you've gone too far this time!  No one would ever be so stupid as to bet on that!  On the other hand...."  

I suppose if the cold sore scenario surfaces in one of the episodes, then we will know that Sportsbet has access to more than just knowing who the F1 is.

SportsBet currently has a max bet limit of $500 for all candidates.

Other agencies (e.g. BetEasy) are higher but I can't determine what it is.

Curiously, SportsBet had a market for 'No girl to be chosen' about a week ago and they removed it within 24 hours. The odds were $6 for no girl to be chosen and they did not have an option to bet on the complementary event that a girl will be chosen. It might lend weight to the somewhat unlikely hypothesis that he is infatuated with Brooke who walks as F3, leaving him with two girls that he realises he is not as keen on so he subsequently picks no one. This ignores the adoration and lust he has shown Brittany, as well as the overwhelming SM evidence supporting her as F1, but a no-winner scenario is perhaps worthy of further investigation given this strange behaviour on SportsBet as well as (a) his non-answers when pressed on whether he found love, (b) how overt the SM spoilers have been, (c) the apparent post-filming affinity between Cass, Brittany, and Sophie, and (d) rumours of infidelity.

I also wonder whether every betting agency would really keep all bets, as they are entitled to, in the event that no one wins. Doing so would aggrieve a great many of their customers especially if they were sitting on information that no one wins.

socialise wrote:SportsBet currently has a max bet limit of $500 for all candidates.

Other agencies (e.g. BetEasy) are higher but I can't determine what it is.

Curiously, SportsBet had a market for 'No girl to be chosen' about a week ago and they removed it within 24 hours. The odds were $6 for no girl to be chosen and they did not have an option to bet on the complementary event that a girl will be chosen. It might lend weight to the somewhat unlikely hypothesis that he is infatuated with Brooke who walks as F3, leaving him with two girls that he realises he is not as keen on so he subsequently picks no one. This ignores the adoration and lust he has shown Brittany, as well as the overwhelming SM evidence supporting her as F1, but a no-winner scenario is perhaps worthy of further investigation given this strange behaviour on SportsBet as well as (a) his non-answers when pressed on whether he found love, (b) how overt the SM spoilers have been, (c) the apparent post-filming affinity between Cass, Brittany, and Sophie, and (d) rumours of infidelity.

I also wonder whether every betting agency would really keep all bets, as they are entitled to, in the event that no one wins. Doing so would aggrieve a great many of their customers especially if they were sitting on information that no one wins.

@socialise Great First Post!  

Fantastic pickup about the "no girl chosen" option - I completely missed that.  Very interesting stuff and I agree with everything you say.  Something is just not adding up here and I would not be at all surprised if he leaves single or they split soon after.

socialise wrote:SportsBet currently has a max bet limit of $500 for all candidates.

Other agencies (e.g. BetEasy) are higher but I can't determine what it is.

Curiously, SportsBet had a market for 'No girl to be chosen' about a week ago and they removed it within 24 hours. The odds were $6 for no girl to be chosen and they did not have an option to bet on the complementary event that a girl will be chosen. It might lend weight to the somewhat unlikely hypothesis that he is infatuated with Brooke who walks as F3, leaving him with two girls that he realises he is not as keen on so he subsequently picks no one. This ignores the adoration and lust he has shown Brittany, as well as the overwhelming SM evidence supporting her as F1, but a no-winner scenario is perhaps worthy of further investigation given this strange behaviour on SportsBet as well as (a) his non-answers when pressed on whether he found love, (b) how overt the SM spoilers have been, (c) the apparent post-filming affinity between Cass, Brittany, and Sophie, and (d) rumours of infidelity.

I also wonder whether every betting agency would really keep all bets, as they are entitled to, in the event that no one wins. Doing so would aggrieve a great many of their customers especially if they were sitting on information that no one wins.

Thank you for this.

The third option is that he picked Britt per default when (if) Brooke walks as F3... ring is seen in the teaser, so we can guess he will make some kind of commitment... but as default, once the cameras off, he shortly broke up with Britt who never was his first choice. My guess is that he “consumed” and this explain the media trio (F1F2F4 rejected/dumped/used). Glad some picked up the non enthusiastic behavior from nick during interviews.

Now, the no one at finale is an interesting option. We need to fit the last lines of the teaser seeing nick at peace, not upset. Does the lead has bonus if he propose or not? How much pressure did he get to propose and when he came back in real world reality kicked in and he broke up with his F1? It is interesting that some of us feels the “being single right now” vibe...

Now, we have another option. He picked Britt as Brooke walks F3... broke up with Britt and is now with Brooke. We call it a Mesnick, happened in US franchise, can happen again.

JMO

seriously are Sportsbet having too much fun now !! I. Am. Dead.

LeapofFaith wrote: seriously are Sportsbet having too much fun now !! I. Am. Dead.

Firstly I acknowledge tbtp and Sportsbet are probably linked and second I’m no punter but would it be possible that Sportsbet would still be in front if Britt was not F1? My thinking is that anyone wanting to make money gaming would do their research or at v least google spoilers prior to placing a bet hence imo large majority of bets would b placed on Britt. If little money was placed on Brooke and Sophie then returns even though individually larger amounts only a few. IMO the last few years there has been photo evidence of F1 so Sportsbet couldn’t/didn’t need to manipulate the market to make money but this yr all rumours and smoke screens. The constant changing of Sportsbet categories is fishy imo. The Cass bet is ridiculous. Can not remember this happening in prev years. IMO it’s like a big joke and they will jump out of a box and shout ‘gotcha’.