Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

For me it's not just the pre-season max losses. It was that the 40+ was the odds fav as well. So both things. To me, that's more than just coincidence if Stu ends ups as F1. It's not a stretch for me to think Sportsbet (when looking at it as actually people who work with/for Sportsbet) would be in the know and that members of the public include those who are with Sportsbet    (even if they may have more in the "know" now with time passed and more opportunities for leaks)


ETA: Current odds still with Stu as odds favorite 


https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/entertainment

Also adding to the above, CMIIW but I think this was the first time the "All-In Betting" (i.e., "no refunds") clause was stipulated - presumably as a safeguard against all the people who'll want their money back if it turns out that the winner wasn't even one of the options for the first 3 weeks of betting.

@Bobette good point about the "All in betting and no refunds" clause   It's a shady business for sure if so but I can see Sportsbet having their clause justifying it so to speak. I recall you brought up that very thing that Sportsbet could use that to their advantage and then have Stu come in and then voila, if Stu wins at the end, Sportsbet made some real bank on those who bet on Luke

That said, I still have some doubt and am not totally sold yet on Sportsbets odds but that's more so because there are some things for both Stu and Luke that don't really fit F1-like patterns of past (as discussed in the F1-F4 thread) - Intruder has never won before and Ep3SD has won but never not been shown CP chat first Ep and never had SM acitivity and traveling while filming. 

So I'm interested to see if Sportsbet has been fed solid info that will match with pre-season sleuthing outliers (SM activity, traveling etc) or if there's been misdirection and misinformation at play and why there's no SCs and outliers for F1 contender in pre-season sleuthing.

If the odds and max loss for Stu stay the same or go even lower that will be interesting for sure  

New Odds



Source

Interesting change in the odds... with Luke's changing even more and slipping further from odds fav spot.... and James moving up (given his SD not surprising).

James had the 2nd best odds early in the season (here) and he wasn't even on the radar since he had no BTS pics etc so definitely insider info then. Hope James is not F2 (for his sake and Soph's)

Any idea on what the max losses are now for the guys post Ep6 @Sundy @SugarandSpice TYIA

Current odds from Sportsbet with max loss accounted for are:
Luke $4.50, max loss $87.50
Jarrod $10.00, max loss $225
James $4.50, max loss $87.50
Apollo $6.50, max loss $137.50
Stu $2.00, max loss $10


ETA: I'm finally starting to see some winning odds now!

SugarAndSpice wrote:Current odds from Sportsbet with max loss accounted for are:

Stu $2.00, max loss $10
James $4.50, max loss $87.50
Luke $4.50, max loss $87.50
Apollo $6.50, max loss $137.50
Jarrod $10.00, max loss $225


ETA: I'm finally starting to see some winning odds now!

Thank you so much @SugarAndSpice 

ITA those are looking like winning odds to me. Like a one-horse race with an Intruder winning

AllAboutLove wrote:Interesting change in the odds... with Luke's changing even more and slipping further from odds fav spot.... and James moving up (given his SD not surprising).

James had the 2nd best odds early in the season (here) and he wasn't even on the radar since he had no BTS pics etc so definitely insider info then. Hope James is not F2 (for his sake and Soph's)

Any idea on what the max losses are now for the guys post Ep6 @Sundy @SugarandSpice TYIA

I reckon TPTB wanted James for F2.  He fits the profile - Loveable, popular with audience, ripe for heartbreak.  Not sure Sophie would have done their bidding though?  I can see her refusing.  

If Jimmy is F2 the curse of my pre-season favourite coming second will continue.  Future contestants: you'd better hope I don't like you.  It's basically your only shot at winning.  

I just had a thought... I wonder if Sportsbet had Luke in that odds fav spot and had his max loss a bit low just to make it "seem" even more like Luke was a winner so more people would bet thinking it is a "sure" thing    


Because Luke in the odds fav spot to win but with max loss of say $100+ would seem super suss. So I think it was strategy on Sportsbet's part if they knew Luke may not be F1... Very shady and sneaky if so but a way to get more people to bid and thus Sportsbet makes more money... 

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:Interesting change in the odds... with Luke's changing even more and slipping further from odds fav spot.... and James moving up (given his SD not surprising).

James had the 2nd best odds early in the season (here) and he wasn't even on the radar since he had no BTS pics etc so definitely insider info then. Hope James is not F2 (for his sake and Soph's)

Any idea on what the max losses are now for the guys post Ep6 @Sundy @SugarandSpice TYIA

I reckon TPTB wanted James for F2.  He fits the profile - Loveable, popular with audience, ripe for heartbreak.  Not sure Sophie would have done their bidding though?  I can see her refusing.  

If Jimmy is F2 the curse of my pre-season favourite coming second will continue.  Future contestants: you'd better hope I don't like you.  It's basically your only shot at winning.  

IA about producers wanting James to go far. They put him in the blue velvet suit after all and he was in the center of the group pic night one and got the music night one too I am not sure where he will end up though as it won't go over well if Soph takes James to F2 and dumps him. He's the audience fan fav from SM so best if she takes someone else to FRC but as this show goes it seems like that one ends up in that spot a lot. So if not James in F2 then I am not sure who that is yet as Sportsbet isn't that great for sleuthing those things since odds can change for non-F1s quite a bit. I really wish there was a Season Preview and SCs to sleuth. It almost makes sleuthing impossible with no SCs at all.  to TPTB

AllAboutLove wrote:

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:Interesting change in the odds... with Luke's changing even more and slipping further from odds fav spot.... and James moving up (given his SD not surprising).

James had the 2nd best odds early in the season (here) and he wasn't even on the radar since he had no BTS pics etc so definitely insider info then. Hope James is not F2 (for his sake and Soph's)

Any idea on what the max losses are now for the guys post Ep6 @Sundy @SugarandSpice TYIA

I reckon TPTB wanted James for F2.  He fits the profile - Loveable, popular with audience, ripe for heartbreak.  Not sure Sophie would have done their bidding though?  I can see her refusing.  

If Jimmy is F2 the curse of my pre-season favourite coming second will continue.  Future contestants: you'd better hope I don't like you.  It's basically your only shot at winning.  

IA about producers wanting James to go far. They put him in the blue velvet suit after all and he was in the center of the group pic night one and got the music night one too I am not sure where he will end up though as it won't go over well if Soph takes James to F2 and dumps him. He's the audience fan fav from SM so best if she takes someone else to FRC but as this show goes it seems like that one ends up in that spot a lot. So if not James in F2 then I am not sure who that is yet as Sportsbet isn't that great for sleuthing those things since odds can change for non-F1s quite a bit. I really wish there was a Season Preview and SCs to sleuth. It almost makes sleuthing impossible with no SCs at all.  to TPTB

Absolutely true.  

IMO there is a misconception that Sportsbet odds can be used to predict the top contestants ranked in the order they will leave. Not only would they not be allowed to do this (there's spoilers, and then there's SPOILERS) but they IMO could not give a flying banana who F2 to F18 are - they are only taking bets on one winner.  

From SB's point of view, everyone else's odds are irrelevant (aside from the psychological aspect of trying to entice people to part with their hard earned $$$s).   I have read comments like "Lisa leaving at F5 proves Sportsbet don't know everything" - but they don't need to know anything other than who wins.  Which they clearly do.  

Every.  Damn.  Season.  IMO.

Yup, it's the potential F1 odds that matter most imo to Sportsbet but I do think the other odds play a role as well (otherwise they could have all the others at max losses of $700 or whatever).

Current odds right now... Stu looks locked in for F1 position. Luke falling behind even more. I will be interested to see if what was sleuthed about Luke pre-season matches Sportsbet odds as the season progresses.

I am all for sleuthing no matter what and honestly if anything, Sportsbet will only be confirming pre-season sleuthing either way since outlier behavior and info on both Luke and Stu was posted before Sportsbet even put out their odds. So yay for us and sleuthing 



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