Bachelorette Australia - Season 3 - Sophie Monk - Betting Info - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

Katiebelle wrote:Oooooo.......Oooooooo.......Oooooooo!!!!

Just had another super exciting nerdy thought!

We could track and log the SM activity/time stamps of the obvious favourites and Sophie after the FRC (has she had it yet?) using the Gantt to see when they post at same time or when there are periods of inactivity to clue us into SHVs. With the Gantt it would really easy to see the patterns.

Absolutely - YES!  

I am on board for any and all geeky stats, graphs and tables!!!  I don't have any of the software - I work with words not numbers - but I would lap up anything you can put together.  

Maybe this thread should be renamed "Stats, Graphs & Odds"?  Or just "Nerd Corner".  

ETA:  FRC was August 12 in Fiji and she said in an interview earlier this week there have been two SHVs since then.  

Bobette wrote:

Katiebelle wrote:Oooooo.......Oooooooo.......Oooooooo!!!!

Just had another super exciting nerdy thought!

We could track and log the SM activity/time stamps of the obvious favourites and Sophie after the FRC (has she had it yet?) using the Gantt to see when they post at same time or when there are periods of inactivity to clue us into SHVs. With the Gantt it would really easy to see the patterns.

Absolutely - YES!  

I am on board for any and all geeky stats, graphs and tables!!!  I don't have any of the software - I work with words not numbers - but I would lap up anything you can put together.  

Maybe this thread should be renamed "Stats, Graphs & Odds"?  Or just "Nerd Corner".  

ETA:  FRC was August 12 in Fiji and she said in an interview earlier this week there have been two SHVs since then.  

Good idea @Katiebelle! This season I need to take better notes of spoilers release by DM and how they change the odds on sportsbet. For those interested, the summary of odds/max loss has now been posted in F1-F4 thread for Mattys season. We're now ready for comparison with Sophies season!

FANTASTIC, @SugarAndSpice!  I just went and checked out your work on Matty's charts.  It certainly paints a very clear picture, IMO.  It will be fascinating to see what the odds are when individual bets come out for Sophie's men.  

I think the public will back Apollo heavily but I have a feeling the F1 hasn't been revealed yet so if there is someone who gets a promo between now and Wednesday, and they then get narrow odds, they will definitely be F1 potential IMO.

Bobette wrote:FANTASTIC, @SugarAndSpice.  I just went and checked out your work on Matty's charts.  It certainly paints a very clear picture, IMO.  It will be fascinating to see what the odds are when individual bets come out for Sophie's men.  

I think the public will back Apollo heavily but I have a feeling the F1 hasn't been revealed yet so if there is someone who gets a promo between now and Wednesday, and they then get narrow odds, they will definitely be F1 potential IMO.

Thanks Bobette! Sophie's season should (hopefully) be a little less full on seeing as there are less guys I have to keep track of! I'll start tracking the odds properly from Ep1 when they release the betting for the contestants. If there are less spoilers this season as well, I think that will effect the movement of the odds.

Agreed re: less guys.  It would be good too if there are a few with close odds so we can see more of an ebb and flow rather than the one horse race of Matty's season, but TWT.  

I'm sure Sportsbet will be taking no chances on their profit margin so smallest potential loss will once again indicate most likely to win IMO.  Appreciate all your work here.  

Copying this here as Sportsbet odds suggest winner may be a brunette from NSW so here are the NSW guys.  

THE BACHELORETTE: CONFIDENTIAL EXCLUSIVELY REVEALS THE NSW MEN FIGHTING FOR SOPHIE MONK’S HEART

MATTY J move over, it’s time for Sophie Monk to find love on television and Confidential can exclusively reveal the NSW Bachelors vying for her heart.

Six gentleman think they have a chance with the Gold Coast born, self described “bogan.”

There is 30-year-old Venezuelan events manager Jefferson, who was raised in Florence; the outdoorsy and spiritual Luke, 33, who is a business culture consultant; Fashion designer Pete, 32, ex-rugby player Ryan, 26.




The NSW Bachelors: Sam, Pete, James, Jefferson, Ryan and Luke. Picture: Supplied
Like Monk, Sam, 31, is in the entertainment industry and works as a voice-artist. He hopes to charm Monk with his humour, saying the most romantic thing he’s ever done is “sang and cooked naked under a superman cooking apron.”

While Financial adviser James, 31, can already see a future with Monk in 10 years time he seems himself “hanging out with Sophie on a ski trip, with a few little Monks in tow.”

Source

May be nothing but I notice James is in the middle of both pictures above - the NSW Bachelors and also the main official pic.

He is also wearing VELVET

AND he is the only one to get a quote in a separate line, referencing wanting to have children.  

Potential F1 Alert, IMO!!!

ETA: Look at the smile on that man's face. You know what they say: Winners are Grinners! I'll be keeping an very close eye on his red carpet arrival. If he fits the editing sequence for an F1, I'm locking him in.

NB: Stu Laundy Also from NSW and not pictured as he will most likely be an intruder.

SugarAndSpice wrote:You're welcome! I'm still tidying up a few charts for Matty's season, then I can get my spreadsheet ready for Wednesday!

You were doing charts to show here? I have been working on them and all past seasons to post as well.

Bobette wrote:


Source

Just noting here that NONE of the contestants revealed today are over 40, so having the narrowest odds for 40+ is moot. I wonder if the people who voted 40+ can get their money back???

NB: Before anyone says it, yes I know Stu is over 40 but just looking at original contestants at this point since the majority of punters wouldn't know Stu will be coming in as an intruder.

17/09 4pm AEST Age odds have changed significantly since the guys were revealed.

40+ and 30 to 34 now almost equal.  Unsure about Max bets as I don't have an account.  



Source

As at 1pm today. Courtesy Sportsbet

Thanks @Sundy!  

Lots to digest here:

Firstly, I thought we had evidence that Luke didn't make it to the end?  I'm sure he was posting on SM long before the finale?  I'm wondering if these early odds have been driven by punters backing Luke based on his age & appearance without actually knowing much about him????  

Secondly, GO JIMMY!  Woot woot.  I read through a lot of the comments on SM yesterday when the class of '17 photo came out and not a single person tipped James.  So his odds are definitely driven by insider info, IMO.  Which makes me think... if it's not Luke... it could be my man Jimmy.  

But then, I can't see Sportsbet taking a chance on giving the F1 anything other than the shortest odds, which makes me think it's Luke.  Bet then, I wouldn't have thought he was what Sophie was after, from his SM.  So I'm back to James.  But then, we have that photo of him on Aug 9...  

WHAT TO MAKE OF ALL THIS?!

@SugarAndSpice, could you please check the max bets when you get time?  Luke may have slimmest odds but high max bet, while James could have more generous odds but low max bet, giving him a lower overall max loss figure.  If that's the case I would favour James even more.  

ETA:I can't wait to see the red carpet edits for these two guys - that will be the clincher, IMO.

Definately the two that stood out to me