Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - SM Media - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

@LeapofFaith thanks for the explanation on jerk Grant.


@Enough What??? Yes please! That's fantastic!

Drove along Abbott Place. No activities at all. Went to Glenorie village. Also nothing unusual. Just local people shopping.

Enough wrote:Drove along Abbott Place. No activities at all. Went to Glenorie village. Also nothing unusual. Just local people shopping.

Thanks for your efforts, @Enough!  

IMO they may be filming her pre-season promo/interview stuff.  Last season there were a lot of paparazzi pics of Sophie filming her promo so I'll keep an eye out on the media websites.

ETA: Still no snack coverage but seems she got her hair done.  Dion La Bella is a hairdresser in Tranmere SA so call off the search party; seems she's not even in Sydney yet.



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In my opinion Ali loves the attention and she loves herself. Not sure where a man will fit into this equation. Her as the bachelorette is a joke, again my opinion, and I can only imagine (and cringe) at the men who will be her suitors.But I for one won’t be watching to find out.

Storybook wrote:In my opinion Ali loves the attention and she loves herself. Not sure where a man will fit into this equation. Her as the bachelorette is a joke, again my opinion, and I can only imagine (and cringe) at the men who will be her suitors.But I for one won’t be watching to find out.

I'll be watching (can't help myself - and I usually watch Bette for the men anyway ) but this is one season where I hope my favourite DOESN'T end up F1. F1 will not = winner in this case, IMO.

@Bobette I am a child at heart and still believe in true love. But I do not believe this show has anything to do with love if Ali is the lead. And if Sophie's men were the best that could be found, I highly doubt Ali's men will be any better. And for those reasons I have no desire whatsoever to endure trash TV.

Maybe they’ll cancel the season :halo:
There are other shows like Love Island going on so why not

OMG, what were TPTB smoking when they cast this chick??!! It seems like every new story that comes out on her just makes her look worse and worse. Makes me wonder if Ali will end up sinking the AU franchise for good.

@Idlemess Love Island is on channel 9. The bachelor franchise is on channel 10. Ten rate so badly with their shows that I'm sure they have their head in the sand about what the Australian public like.

@flojo031 I agree with your post. IMO Ali has high odds of sinking the ship. If she doesn't then I'm sure a lack of suitable Aussie men as contestants will send the show to the bottom of the ocean.

Paging @Sundy!

Can you please check the max bets for this new Sportsbet market? Because these odds suggest they know something IMO.



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This wasn't there 2 days ago when I last checked.  Trying not to get my hopes up but.... *excited squeal* DO IT Ch 10!

Bobette wrote:Paging @Sundy!

Can you please check the max bets for this new Sportsbet market? Because these odds suggest they know something IMO.



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This wasn't there 2 days ago when I last checked.  Trying not to get my hopes up but.... *excited squeal* DO IT Ch 10!

I'm not Australian, so not familar with Sportsbet. Bobette, how often are they right about certain things? Do they have insider knowledge?

flojo031 wrote:
I'm not Australian, so not familar with Sportsbet. Bobette, how often are they right about certain things? Do they have insider knowledge?

@flojo031.  Always.  They are always right.  At least, they have correctly predicted the winner for every season I have sleuthed since I joined the forum and I believe before that too (for Bach, Bachette, and even who would get engaged on BiP AU, which no one else saw coming, although we did find paparazzo pics when the odds came out and I went hunting for evidence).  

I think they definitely have insider information.  I suspect it's probably the paparazzos or people who work directly or indirectly for the show (cameramen, editors, catering staff, makeup artists, cleaners etc etc; there would be a lot of people who would be in the know) but it wouldn't surprise me if the info comes from TPTB themselves and Ch 10 is somehow profiting.

It could be argued that the odds reflect who the audience think will win (i.e. large bets get placed on a contestant, and the odds get shorter, other people see them as a favourite, so they also place bets, and the odds get shorter accordingly etc etc). This is how it works with regular betting (horses etc). However this doesn't sufficiently explain the odds for a TV show.

The person who is F1 has always had the lowest Max Loss figure from their first appearance on the show (either on night 1, or in the case of Sophie's F1 Stu, when he arrived as an intruder).  And they have always had a disclaimer that "the show is pre-filmed and results may be known" (i.e. THEY KNOW!).  There's been debate about whether accepting bets on a pre-determined outcome is ethical, and at one stage it looked like it was going to be banned, but it's still going on.

To explain Max Losses:

The odds are a good indication of who will win but that's only part of the story.  Sportsbet also have a limit on how much you can bet on someone (called a Max Bet).  This determines how much Sportsbet will actually have to pay out if that person wins (the Max Loss for Sportsbet).

This enables them to be tricky and disguise the winner to a certain extent, or make it look like a close race when then know it's not.  Say for example they give the winner odds of 1.75.  That means that for every dollar I bet, if that person wins, Sportsbet have to give me $1.75.  

They obviously want to minimise their losses, so they might set the Max Bet at $10.  This means I can only bet up to $10 on that person.  My maximum payout is $17.50, but they already have my original $10 so my actual profit (and therefore Sportbet's Max Loss) is only $7.50.  Once they take their fees, I'd be lucky to get enough profit to buy a cup of tea.

Conversely, they might set another contestant's odds at 8.00, with a max bet of $100.  That means if I bet $100 and that person wins, I get $700 profit! ($800 payout minus my original $100 bet).  If that person is edited on the show to look like they might win, uneducated punters rush to throw down $100 each, thinking they're onto a winner, but of course they don't win, and Sportsbet keeps their cash.

Things get even more tricky when the results are not yet known. Check out these calculations made by @Sundy on Nick's Bachelor betting odds page Here

Sundy wrote:Max bets odds on www.sportsbet.com.au are as follows- 

Hair colour 
Black @$7.50 and max bet of $15.00 = total profit - $97.50
Brown @$2.50 and max bet of $67.00 = total profit - $100.50
Blonde @ $1.75 and max bet of $133.00 = total profit $99.75

Age
31-35 @$3.00 and max bet of $50.00 = total profit of $100.00
25-30 @ $2.00 and max bet of $100.00 = total profit of $100.00
Less than 25 $4.00 and max bet of $33.00 = total profit of $99.00

State
QLD @  $4.50 and max bet of $29.00 = total profit of $101.50
Vic @ $3.50 and a max bet of $40.00 = total profit of $100.00
NSW @ $2.50 and max bet of $67.00 = total profit of $100.50
SA @ $7.00 and max bet of $17.00 = total profit of $102.00
WA @ $8.00 and max bet of $14.00 = total profit of $98.00

You can see that although the odds for blonde, brunette etc are wildly different, the actual Max Loss for Sportsbet is practically the same.  This means they don't yet know who wins (or didn't at the time - these sums were done a few weeks ago before he picked his F1) and are not taking it very seriously at this stage since what they lose on one they will make back on another.

As soon as the girls arrive on night 1, Sportsbet will set up a market for the individual girls by name and it will be immediately obvious who wins IMO.  We know that none of the intruders make it to the end so the girl with the lowest Max Loss figure after the premiere is almost guaranteed to be F1.

Sportsbet are in the business of making money and they are not going to risk people placing huge bets on the winner early on, and they don't care about spoiling the show, so they just set the odds to make them maximum profit (lowest max loss for the winner and enticing odds for other contestants who look like they might win, to encourage people to bet).

During Georgia's season they made the mistake of placing Lee's Max Bet too high and his odds too long, loads of people bet in the first few hours and made a killing, from what I can gather.  They are not going to risk that happening again and we saw this with Matty's season - Laura was a clear frontrunner from the minute she stepped out of the limo.

So getting back to this thread and why I asked @Sundy to do the calculations - you can only see the Max Bets if you have an account with Sportsbet which I don't.  We need to know the Max Bet to calculate the Max Loss, to work out whether they know Ali's about to be dumped.

If the Max Bet for "Ali will be the Bette" is $100, and "won't be" is $5 for example, then put on your party hats girls and boys because we're getting a new girl.  If it's the other way round, we're stuck with her, and if the Max Losses work out to be practically the same like in the hair colour examples above, they don't know anything and are just messing with me.