Re: Bachelor In Paradise Australia - Season 3 - S/Caps - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

by Astrobach Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:12 pm

@Bobette This Sportsbet thing is really your area of expertise... I’m so unfamiliar with the whole thing...so Ill agree with whatever your conclusions! laugh out loud

I’m just seeing a motive for them to list the MOST popular as we’re all WAITING for the show to start!
Was there much fluctuations in earlier seasons from a few weeks before to a few weeks IN ( after airing) ?

by Bobette Sat Jun 20, 2020 9:25 pm

@Astrobach the figures for the "non-winners" of Bach/Bette fluctuate a lot pre- and during the show based on various things including popularity/public perception and who punters are placing their bets on, but the winner always has shortest odds, from the very start. It's a dead giveaway.

Since BiP involves couples they need to do things differently, and they don't list all the names (otherwise they would have to pay out on six winners, and it would be obvious that the top 6 were finalists and the only thing to do would be work out the most likely combinations of couplings).

But they still give away a lot of info, e.g. I am certain they would not have Jamie and Britt at 5.50 and 4.50 if there was any chance they got to the end IMO. Sportsbet don't care about spoiling the show, they only want to make the most profit possible and winners are usually under 2.0.

They also give away a lot by who isn't listed - e.g. in season 1, they had a market for "will leave Paradise engaged", with Tara at the shortest odds, and the only contestant not listed was Sam (because they only wanted to have to pay out on one winner, not two) so it was obvious she was with him.

by Astrobach Sat Jun 20, 2020 10:45 pm

@Bobette Thanks for the info. So now we may have Ciarran ’ finding love ??? ( as an ‘ engaged’ couple ??? ) yes, this sounds pretty fishy to me.
Interesting about the past bets. I guess these categories WILL still change as we get into the actual broadcasts.
Does that take away Britt as a part of any couple?
I see Britney more possibly ( that’s ‘ conga girl, right? )

by **GuardianAngel** Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:06 pm

@Bobette thanks for the run down on sportsbet and their method to their madness. Of course they wouldn't want to payout so it all makes sense! yes

by Bobette Sat Jun 20, 2020 11:16 pm

@Astrobach Yes I would rule out Britt H from being a finalist based on odds (also she wasn't there long enough - @Dirty Street Pie noted her posting about burned koalas on Nov 22 during the bushfires - upthread here).

But yes, Britt W is still in the running IMO based on her late return date. To be thorough, any of the girls who were back late and aren't on Sportsbet's list are worth exploring as possibilities IMO.

ETA: Bumping up this post I made shortly after filming. It seems like SO LONG AGO! I had forgotten the media were convinced that Alex and Keira were a viable couple based on a pic of his shoe. laugh out loud

Some of my ideas were way off too (Renee and Kayde? scratch

) but the summary of return dates is a useful refresher. Note Kiki was back Nov 13 lending weight to the theory that she leaves and Ciarran chases IMO.

Bobette wrote:My favourite part is that none of these journalists seem to be doing much research or fact checking. The only two couples they've "revealed" so far - Niranga/Helena and Keira/Alex - are both red herrings IMO.

Keira was back 25th Nov (posted upthread) which was the same day as Jamie - hence why it was speculated those two may have hooked up but chosen to leave separately before the end ala Megan and Jake.

Alex didn't even get there till Nov 12 at the earliest IMO because the was still doing post-Bette interviews and being tagged with Matty. So that's only a 2-week gap when Alex and Keira were potentially there at the same time.

Renee was the last to resurface on SM on Dec 1 - a whole week after Keira - and the same day as the show's photographer, so I think she's probably a better yardstick for those who went to the end and when filming wrapped.

Ciarran was one of the first to arrive and one of the last to leave but was still back before Renee so I'll be interested to see how that whole thing plays out. I still suspect Renee might have hooked up with Kayde.

Pulling together some dates from upthread - may not be 100% accurate but a decent guide IMO. The official show photographer flew out Nov 4 "for a month" and returned Dec 1 so that indicates the filming length IMO.

Dirty Street Pie wrote:Tom the official photographer is flying out from Auckland today, and his story is captioned " off for a month"so I guess we know how long filming is going to take now!

Abbie - flew out Nov 3 and reportedly lasted all of 2 days; was very active on SM but not pictured arriving back until Nov 15 so may have been kept in Fiji for a while or possibly re-entered the show then got eliminated again.

Britt W - flew out with Abbie Nov 3 and resurfaced near the end on Nov 26 looking very tanned and happy.

Britt H - went quiet on SM around Nov 4 (but was not pictured flying out) and resurfaced posting burned koalas Nov 22

Ciarran - flew out Nov 5, posted a red herring throwback Nov 22 (same day as Alex) then another throwback Nov 28 followed by live IG stories, fresh pics and posts about "new beginnings"

Renee - flew out Nov 10 and resurfaced Dec 1

Kayde - big gap in IG posting between Nov 11 and Nov 24 (which may have been a throwback) then started posting live again on Dec 1

Alex - dropped off the radar around Nov 12, posted a red herring throwback Nov 22 (sam day as Ciarran) then resumed normal posting on the morning of Nov 24 (IG story having breakfast with mates)

Kiki - was pictured shopping/getting handsy with Ciarran pre-show but was back posting burned koalas by Nov 13

Julia - not sure when she flew out but was also back by Nov 13 (pictured at work Xmas party)

Helena - not sure when she flew out but was back and posting live IG stories Nov 16

Timm - pictured with a fan at the airport flying to Fiji Nov 17 so may have been on lockdown in AU till the Bette finale or may have already been in Fiji prior and allowed to come back for his friend's wedding and then flown back. Started following Helena Nov 16, after she was eliminated. Posted a red herring throwback pic Nov 22 (same day as Alex and Ciarran) and was then pictured in a friend's live IG story that night

Matty - was still in AU till mid-Nov at least and resumed posting Nov 24 so if he went it wasn't for long IMO

Jackson - posted a throwback pic Nov 24 then resumed commenting etc Nov 25, did a live podcast with Timm & Jamie Nov 28

Jamie - was apparently back slumming it with Megan Nov 23, posted a throwback pic Nov 24 then resumed normal posting Nov 25

Keira - was at the Melb Cup (Nov 5) flew out some time after that and resumed live posting Nov 25

Rob - resumed posting on Nov 29 but hardly ever posts to hard to tell when he flew out, if indeed he was even there

Danny - no IG posts since Oct 29 but may have been there (potential pairing with Britt W IMO since he regularly likes her pics)

by Bobette Fri Jun 26, 2020 4:06 am

A couple of SCs from the latest trailer. It's Renee on the beach with Ciarran (same dress). Must happen pretty early in filming since Timm's still there. They're making it look like Ciarran leaves but presumably not if he was there till late November.

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Who's this in the racerback? Is it a producer with an earpiece, or are they drop earrings?

Clothes/hair don't seem to match any of the girls at the dinner table. Is it Janey? question

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by **GuardianAngel** Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:39 am

Great catch on Renee and same dress. yes

by Bobette Thu Jul 02, 2020 6:31 pm

Thanks to Mary for providing footage of her hands from all angles. laugh out loud

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Comparison to trailer:

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Now we just need Sogand to do the same thing thanks. Hugesmile

by Astrobach Thu Jul 02, 2020 9:50 pm

@Bobette

Thanks for bringing these here. IMO her nail shape and the contrast of color from her ‘ finger joints’ ( phalanges ) which are darker than her fingers, and that skin tone would be even darker compared to very pale skin blondish guy’s hand. Sogand’s skin tone is more even on her whole hands and lighter than Mary’s. I still vote for Sogand’s hands, for all reasons given in previous analysis before... but we’ll soon see!
JMOAA

by Bobette Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:25 am

@Astrobach Yeah I tend to agree, however I also agree with @Agent99 that Sogand seems to take great pride in her manicures so I can't get my head around her having ghastly red chipped nails like those in the trailer, especially knowing the camera would be doing a super closeup on her hands. dizzy

It could still be an International girl, but I haven't seen any SM evidence of that - no random cross-follows, no comments from US girls, nothing. Most of the girls are following Tyler and Mike B but I can't see TPTB securing them on the show so maybe there aren't any Internationals this season? no idea

by Agent99 Fri Jul 03, 2020 10:54 pm

I agree, don't think there are any international girls @Bobette. There are nine confirmed girls, with Kiki, Keira, Sogand, Julia and Alisha unconfirmed but very likely. That makes 14, which is about the right amount. There is plenty of room for male internationals though, but I've also seen no clues on sm that there are any.

Re the red chipped nails - is there any chance of editing sorcery that removes tattoos laugh out loud

. I still think it is Glenn and Renee, which makes no sense! Where are the tatts no idea

ETA I noticed in the latest video with Mary that she was talking about who she would like to date and Alex Bordy was shown. Also a clip where Jamie was prominent. Checked Alex's ig and he was indeed mia during filming period. Could he have been brought back? Could see him being used to make someone (perhaps Jamie?) jealous. Just musing laugh out loud

by Bobette Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:34 am

@Agent99 Oh interesting idea re: Alex. Didn't think he'd be desperate enough to make a second run but maybe he was at a loose end? Or perhaps they're just recycling eye candy footage from last year. I haven't watched the Mary vid - will do so now. yes

ETA: Bringing the clip over. They definitely seem to be implying there will be US guys (though not necessarily Alex IMO). LOL at TPTB showing Abbie saying she's "praying for Americans" considering was probably gone before they even got there. laugh out loud

What are our gorgeous gals Abbie & Mary bringing with them to Paradise? Dive into their suitcases in Packing For Paradise then see them head in for real 7.30 Wednesday July 15! #BachelorInParadiseAU Full vid here: https://t.co/F2ea3XrBuj pic.twitter.com/TVpaRErmJs
— Bachelor In Paradise Australia (@BachParadiseAU) July 3, 2020

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Guys featured in the above clip:

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