THE BACHELORETTE - SEASON 12 - JOJO FLETCHER - **NO SPOILERS** - F1-2-3 Predictions - *SLEUTHING*

veg_out wrote:Jo's choice after week 4:

1. Jordan
2. Luke
3. Chase
4. Robby

I think that this order changes during the rest of the season. If I had to guess today, I'd say that Chase is her F1.

I think your ranking is spot on. Jordon is obviously the clear "winner" so far. And Robby is bringing up the rear. Other than the physical edit, we do not see much of Robby. What solid conversations have they had to date? I guess we'll wait on their 1on1 date to find out. Thus far, in terms of meaningful conversations Luke and Chase have been able to talk about marriage and life beyond the show. Because of JoJo's insecurities with Jordan they haven't even had that talk yet. It can also be because they haven't had the time in a 1on1 yet, same as Robby. But after we see the 1on1 with Jordan next week and maybe Robby, then we can better rank them. Of course I would hasten to say that not all dates are created equal e.g. Chase's yoga vs. dog sledding and hot tube with Luke. So we'll have to see.

aviej wrote:

veg_out wrote:Jo's choice after week 4:

1. Jordan
2. Luke
3. Chase
4. Robby

I think that this order changes during the rest of the season. If I had to guess today, I'd say that Chase is her F1.

I think your ranking is spot on. Jordon is obviously the clear "winner" so far. And Robby is bringing up the rear. Other than the physical edit, we do not see much of Robby. What solid conversations have they had to date? I guess we'll wait on their 1on1 date to find out. Thus far, in terms of meaningful conversations Luke and Chase have been able to talk about marriage and life beyond the show. Because of JoJo's insecurities with Jordan they haven't even had that talk yet. It can also be because they haven't had the time in a 1on1 yet, same as Robby. But after we see the 1on1 with Jordan next week and maybe Robby, then we can better rank them. Of course I would hasten to say that not all dates are created equal e.g. Chase's yoga vs. dog sledding and hot tube with Luke. So we'll have to see.

This is a very good point to keep in mind. The nature of the date does, indeed, play into how much time they get to sit and talk and also how they edit the date. I'm sure that we won't hear much meaning conversation between Robby and Jo as they approach and then jump off of that cliff, for example. That doesn't mean that important conversation did not take place in another portion of the date, it's just that they choose to air the action footage instead. Same with the Chase yoga date. The more important segment to analyze is what transcribes at dinner/evening portion of date. To me, that indicates how the date has progressed. Again, it is all up to the editors as to what we actually get to see and hear.

^^^ Exactly. There are plenty of conversations that the lead and the contestant has which we don't see.
The editors show us just a snipppet of the entire date, depending on the storyline they are trying to portray.

IMO it really does not matter the nature of the date, its what the editors determine to show to us.

JoJo's rank after episode 4:
1) Jordan
2) Luke
3) Robby
4) Chase

Edits:
F1) Jordan -Josh M, Brooks (original F1 but left) 
F1) Chase -I think a turning point could be coming for him...Chris S (second choice), JP

F2) Robby - Kiptyn, TPTB don't have us as emotionally invested yet. Jo spares F3's feelings. Robby's drinks wine out of the bottle with Jo's mom

F3) Chase -if he can't surpass Jordan in Thailand, if Jordan is even in Thailand

F4) Luke -most popular next lead choice, his frustration might get the best of him
F4) Jordan -if JoJo loses trust in him and doesn't feel safe, in which case Luke moves to F3, Chase F1

aviej wrote:

veg_out wrote:Jo's choice after week 4:

1. Jordan
2. Luke
3. Chase
4. Robby

I think that this order changes during the rest of the season. If I had to guess today, I'd say that Chase is her F1.

I think your ranking is spot on. Jordon is obviously the clear "winner" so far. And Robby is bringing up the rear. Other than the physical edit, we do not see much of Robby. What solid conversations have they had to date? I guess we'll wait on their 1on1 date to find out. Thus far, in terms of meaningful conversations Luke and Chase have been able to talk about marriage and life beyond the show. Because of JoJo's insecurities with Jordan they haven't even had that talk yet. It can also be because they haven't had the time in a 1on1 yet, same as Robby. But after we see the 1on1 with Jordan next week and maybe Robby, then we can better rank them. Of course I would hasten to say that not all dates are created equal e.g. Chase's yoga vs. dog sledding and hot tube with Luke. So we'll have to see.

I actually thought Chase's date was pretty darn intimate after the initial awkwardness. I wonder how long they stayed in YabYum position?  There was some humor and laughs, and then a balance of more serious discussion during dinner. Their conversation I think will prove meaningful at the end, either +/- for a Chase F1 ending. 
Also, during they had a more intimate concert...no crowd. And I noticed no close-ups of them kissing. I sensed TPTB wanting to give them space, and wanting to detach us from it (an editing trick).

^^Another editing trick, I think. Immediately after Chase's 1-1, we get the Chad show starting with the sex talk date. Whatever thoughts one might have had contemplating Chase and JoJo as a couple would have likely been swept away by the Chad/Evan mix up.

So if, if, if, TPTB are looking for a surprise ending, I think Chase is in a good position for that. The editing of the last few seasons, though, do not seem to go in that direction. I'm onboard, however, if that's how it plays out.

I personally believe that TPTB want Chase as F1 and right now they are toying between Jordan and Luke to be F3 so that they can be the next lead. IMO, there's no way they actually want Jordan to be F1. So for me they will always try to edit the show so that there's some altercation or stumbling block preventing Jordan from being F1. This has been consistent from day 1. Whether they are just trying to sidetrack us from the budding relationship there is another story. There are just too many camera pans to Chase and Jordan when references are made to finding love etc. not so much with Luke and Robby. JoJo said she's looking for a best friend and someone to feel safe around. We have to determine, aside from the passion and chemistry, with whom is she her true authentic self? With whom is there a natural flow?

aviej wrote:I personally believe that TPTB want Chase as F1 and right now they are toying between Jordan and Luke to be F3 so that they can be the next lead. IMO, there's no way they actually want Jordan to be F1. So for me they will always try to edit the show so that there's some altercation or stumbling block preventing Jordan from being F1. This has been consistent from day 1. Whether they are just trying to sidetrack us from the budding relationship there is another story. There are just too many camera pans to Chase and Jordan when references are made to finding love etc. not so much with Luke and Robby.  JoJo said she's looking for a best friend and someone to feel safe around. We have to determine, aside from the passion and chemistry, with whom is she her true authentic self?  With whom is there a natural flow?

ITA but I fear the editing will never allow us to truly see this.

I agree to a point. In the earlies, the editing can hide all they want the connections etc. But at some point, they gotta let the plot progress so that the viewers can be convinced that JoJo finds true love with her F1. How else can the viewers bask in the FRC and propsal if they were not invested or if they did not journey with the couple in finding love. At some point, the editing has to give us a heads up. Else how would her F1 pick be credible?

aviej wrote:I agree to a point. In the earlies, the editing can hide all they want the connections etc. But at some point, they gotta let the plot progress so that the viewers can be convinced that JoJo finds true love with her F1. How else can the viewers bask in the FRC and propsal if they were not invested or if they did not journey with the couple in finding love. At some point, the editing has to give us a heads up. Else how would her F1 pick be credible?

Avie, I tend to agree with you--the edit eventually has to tell the story. If it's showing us that another couple was better matched, it's a commentary.

Ali and Des's chat with Jo bears review. Ali advised Jo to hold off on her instant-attraction/chemistry guys; Jo did that and postponed dates with Luke and Jordan until later in the season. Des mentioned that Jo needed to distinguish between lust and love, which Ali essentially echoes when she mentioned compatibility. I'd propose that a theme of this season is love vs. lust along with safe and protected vs. insecure and scared. We're being shown physical relationships with Jordan and Robby--we don't really know them with Jo. Contrast that with Luke and Chase. Both of those guys had physical parts of their dates, but the dates attempted to show the ways that they were compatible with Jo, that Jo could see a life with those guys, which we see her say about them both. With Chase, we see her say to him that she feels safe and protected. We will have to wait and see if she says that with Jordan or Robby.

Lust can turn into love, but it can also fizzle out. We'll see which of these guys goes the distance with Jo.

After episode 5, JoJo's rank:
1) Jordan
2) Luke
3) Robby
4) Chase

Where it might go:

F4  Jordan possibly takes himself out before/after HTD based on
JoJo in preview: "What you did to me, it's not right."  And it looks like he reaches a level of frustration in episode 6 when he tells JoJo "Once again, I find I'm having to defend myself" Then it looks like it gets cleared up on their 1:1 in episode 7 for the time being. 

F4  Luke
If JoJo chooses Jordan to go onto Thailand over him. It doesn't mean that Jordan makes it to Thailand.

F3   Chase 
Depending on how their 2:1 goes. If he can't catch up with the others, I doubt JoJo will bring him to a FRC. He seems to be in deep for JoJo so she spares his feelings.

F3 Jordan
If/when he comes back (a' la Reid),  will she turn him down knowing she has other good men who can give her all the love back? 
JoJo's preview VO "Coming into this , I wanted to find love".
ITM "and I found it with a man..."

(my own SC)
^this looks like a happy/calm JoJo. Notice her eyes and her mouth is turned up in a mini-smile. I think she is speaking of a different guy here and not Jordan. Her voice seems soft here and higher pitched. 
Then it cuts to this frankenbite VO:
"That will not be able to love me the way I said I wanted to be loved." When she said this her voice was deeper, a bit cracked (from crying maybe?) In other words, this statement doesn't belong with the first one. So yes, I think Jo also fell in love with one of the other guys!

F2 Robby
I see more of a physical/playful connection. Their relationship to me, mirrors Kiptyn and Jillian. I don't think Robby is that invested emotionally. 

F1 Luke
If JoJo brings Luke to Thailand in place of Jordan, I think he has a real chance at F1, however, I still think he could be getting pumped up as next Bachelor based on: JoJo's husband comment, the glowing reviews of him in her blogs, and he has no doubt/obstacle as of yet. If it's down to Robby and Luke, then it might be Luke's to lose. I can't think about a Luke F1 scenario until we get some Thailand SCs.

F1 Chase
If Chase can catch up with the others, he may have a chance. Their relationship could grow leaps and bounds in the next few episodes.  If it's down to Chase and Robby, I think Chase's emotional connection will end up being stronger. Chase has been a definitive protagonist, unlike Robby. TPTB have painted Chase's edit as a solution to JoJo's love problems the most. 

F1 Jordan
If JoJo heeds all warnings and red flags and sticks with her old pattern in love and relationships.

Tonight, I'm going to list my leader board prior to episode 6. This is how I see this eventually ending.

Oh, and I'm adding music to my list. Each song is representative of the 'love music' I hear inside my head when I think about each of the men. Each one has a unique energy and distinct mood.  Enjoy!

F4 Lucky Luke...Marvin Gaye's "Let's Get It On"  


F3 Chase...Robert Plant's "Big Log"


F2 Jordan...Lady Gaga's "Bad Romance"  


F1 Robby...Queen's "Good Old Fashioned Lover Boy"