Bachelorette Australia - Season 4 - Ali Oetjen - Betting Odds - *Sleuthing Spoilers*

I need to double check. Did Rob get Ep 3 SD or first SD? First SD contestants are usually never winners but maybe something is up. Ep 3 SDs usually are F1 contenders. I'd love it if it's not obvious and SB doesn't know for sure. I suspect as time goes by they will solidify the winner. Need to keep sleuthing (will be doing that anyway). 

Taite with the lowest max bet still makes me think F1. Will have to watch closely. 

The odds for Ivan and Cheyne are a joke   No winner higher than many other contestants' odds

AllAboutLove wrote:I need to double check. Did Rob get Ep 3 SD or first SD? First SD contestants are usually never winners but maybe something is up. Ep 3 SDs usually are F1 contenders. I'd love it if it's not obvious and SB doesn't know for sure. I suspect as time goes by they will solidify the winner. Need to keep sleuthing (will be doing that anyway). 

Taite with the lowest max bet still makes me think F1. Will have to watch closely. 

The odds for Ivan and Cheyne are a joke   No winner higher than many other contestants' odds

Rob's date was Friday 6th July according to this article and it says she has her "first kiss" so I would assume that's the first date unless she goes on a date with someone else earlier and doesn't kiss them ala Nick and Shannon but it's Ali, she'll kiss them all IMO.  

I think the first night of filming was 27th June (Matrix pics here) so there may have been time to squeeze in a date before Rob's BUT, there would have been a break in filming for the Logies, so I'm inclined to think Rob was probably first date and hence kiss of death.  

Bobette wrote:

AllAboutLove wrote:I need to double check. Did Rob get Ep 3 SD or first SD? First SD contestants are usually never winners but maybe something is up. Ep 3 SDs usually are F1 contenders. I'd love it if it's not obvious and SB doesn't know for sure. I suspect as time goes by they will solidify the winner. Need to keep sleuthing (will be doing that anyway). 

Taite with the lowest max bet still makes me think F1. Will have to watch closely. 

The odds for Ivan and Cheyne are a joke   No winner higher than many other contestants' odds

Rob's date was Friday 6th July according to this article and it says she has her "first kiss" so I would assume that's the first date unless she goes on a date with someone else earlier and doesn't kiss them ala Nick and Shannon but it's Ali, she'll kiss them all IMO.  

I think the first night of filming was 27th June (Matrix pics here) so there may have been time to squeeze in a date before Rob's BUT, there would have been a break in filming for the Logies, so I'm inclined to think Rob was probably first date and hence kiss of death.  

Yes that's what is on the filming schedule for start date and Rob's date (had it as first date). I was thinking of past seasons and 10 days later was Ep 3 SD so typically his would be Ep3 but you reminded me (thank you ) they had Logies later this year so that definitely is why it's likely first date and not Ep3. Definitely kiss of death imo. 

I am sticking with Taite for F1 from all pre-Sportsbet sleuthing until something convincing otherwise

Re: Ivan and Cheyne yes I think SB are taking the piss there .  

But since they only have to pay out on F1 they probably only care about tricking people into betting on people who they know will be getting attention (ie Rob because he gets the first date and Charlie because the media are pushing him and he's getting a lot of attention from fans on SM) and the rest they can just have fun with.  

Good for Cheyne.  A nice little confidence booster for him especially since it seems he's one of the first to go.  Also it just occurred to me that having Cheyne so far up in the odds will make it LOOK like Sportsbet don't know the results when of course it's pretty obvious IMO that they do.  It's mindgames all the way with SB.  

OK so I just checked the odds again and there have already been some fairly significant changes.  

We really need to check max bets for Rob v Taite.  @Sundy, @Dirty Street Pie sorry to be a pain but could you (or anyone else with an account) possibly check the numbers just for those two guys?  



I think what we're seeing here is exactly what I described in my post above (all early attention on Rob and Charlie) and Taite is still F1, but the only way we will know for sure is to check the max losses.

I'm expecting Rob's max bet to be high and Taite's to be low.



Source

@Bobette    intruder wins! F1 dumps her! (is that the reason for the disclaimer for "final contestant not accepting will be considered winner?")



I love it! I want SB to be wrong or messing and just have to sleuth 


I will post in Taite's thread in regards to the post I made about a post Taite was tagged in that made me wonder a bit. Would love to hear your thoughts

IKR I was kind of disappointed it was all tied up in a big red bow already.    

My thoughts are Taite is still F1 (will head over and check your post on his thread right after this though) because otherwise, there is absolutely no reason for him to have started in poll position for the betting.  

There's been hardly any media about him (other than the article DM pulled together from our research), no pics of dates and nothing on the official SM so IMO SB having him at the front (even only briefly) is a massive sign.  

Tate F1 will most likely be confirmed by max losses IMO but we'll see.

@Bobette @AllAboutLove they are equal at the moment.

@Sundy

@AllAboutLove

@Bobette IA! I still think Taite but always will keep sleuthing. I may need to check the archives but I remember that Nikki and Alex may have had a bit of flipping for that season? SB could be playing a bit since Nick's season was a mess and they were so adamant about Britt as F1 (other than the pick no one option). Posted about Taite's tag pic here

@Sundy   thank you!   Taite set to $10 max bid max me think they know something.

Would it be max loss of $60 = Taite and $70 = Rob? So Taite with lowest max loss indicative of F1 I'd think?

Yeah I'm still 100% on the Taite Train.

Re: the "no winner" option, SB must want to kiss Nick for not choosing anyone because IMO almost everyone who bets on another contestant will probably now also take out a bet on "no winner", just in case, so SB will make even MORE money.

I am sticking with Taite as F1 I think it suits SB to play with his odds a bit.


IA that the picks no one option makes them get more money so refunds don't matter when most everyone took that money and bet on it again with SB anyway